United States House Price Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-1.5

Actual:

436.6

Forecast: 438.1

Previous/Revision:

436.8

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The United States House Price Index (HPI) measures the relative changes in the price of residential properties in the United States, focusing primarily on single-family homes. It assesses key areas such as property values and market trends, providing insights into the housing market's performance, with principal indicators including price appreciation rates and market activity.

Frequency

The HPI is released on a quarterly basis, with the data typically published on the last business day of the month following the end of each quarter.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders are particularly interested in the HPI as it is a critical barometer of real estate market health, influencing broader economic trends. Changes in the index can impact various financial assets, including equities related to real estate, mortgage-backed securities, and currencies, as shifts in house prices may affect consumer spending and economic sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The HPI is derived from data collected through repeat sales of properties, employing methodologies that include the repeat-sales method and hedonic regression techniques. This calculation typically involves a comprehensive dataset comprising millions of property sales across the United States, focusing on standardized home sales to ensure accuracy.

Description

The HPI distinguishes between preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data are based on early estimates subject to revision, while final data provide a more accurate reflection of the market conditions determined after complete data collection. Financial markets often react more robustly to preliminary figures due to their immediacy, but adjustments in sentiment can occur with final figures as they may alter previously held perceptions. The HPI uses year-over-year (YoY) comparisons, which eliminate seasonal variations and highlight long-term trends, allowing traders to identify sustainable market movements rather than transient fluctuations.

Additional Notes

The HPI acts as a leading economic indicator, providing insights into future consumer behavior and overall economic activity. It relates closely to other economic data such as Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making it relevant in the context of evaluating housing market dynamics both regionally and nationally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 27, 2025	436.6	438.1	436.8	-1.5
Apr 29, 2025	437.3	438.2	436.7	-0.9
Mar 25, 2025	436.5	437.4	435.8	-0.9
Feb 25, 2025	436.1	434.3	434.3	1.8
Jan 28, 2025	433.4	433	432.3	0.4
Dec 31, 2024	432.3	432.3	430.6
Nov 26, 2024	430.3	428.3	427	2
Oct 29, 2024	427	425.2	425.8	1.8
Sep 24, 2024	425.2	424.6	424.7	0.6
Aug 27, 2024	424.5	424.7	424.8	-0.2
Jul 30, 2024	424.6	425	424.7	-0.4
Jun 25, 2024	424.3	423.8	423.3	0.5
May 28, 2024	423.4	427	423	-3.6
Apr 30, 2024	423	419.5	417.8	3.5
Mar 26, 2024	417.5	418	417.8	-0.5
Feb 27, 2024	417.8	418.7	417.4	-0.9
Jan 30, 2024	417.4	417.5	416.1	-0.1
Dec 26, 2023	416.3	417.2	414.9	-0.9
Nov 28, 2023	414.8	413.5	412.2	1.3
Oct 31, 2023	411.8	411.5	409.4	0.3
Sep 26, 2023	409.5	406.6	406.1	2.9
Aug 29, 2023	405.8	406.5	404.4	-0.7
Jul 25, 2023	404.1	404.6	401.2	-0.5
Jun 27, 2023	401.2	402.1	398.3	-0.9
May 30, 2023	398	393	395.5	5
Apr 25, 2023	394.8	392.8	393	2
Mar 28, 2023	393.2	394	392.4	-0.8
Feb 28, 2023	392.1	390	392.4	2.1
Jan 31, 2023	392.3	391.1	392.8	1.2
Dec 27, 2022	392.7	391.1	392.7	1.6
Nov 29, 2022	392.3	388	392	4.3
Oct 25, 2022	392	394	394.6	-2
Sep 27, 2022	395.2	399	397.6	-3.8
Aug 30, 2022	398	402.5	397.6	-4.5
Jul 26, 2022	398.1	396.8	392.7	1.3
Jun 28, 2022	392.9	391.5	386.8	1.4
May 31, 2022	386.5	389	381	-2.5
Apr 26, 2022	381.4	379.6	373.7	1.8
Mar 29, 2022	373.3	371.2	367.6	2.1
Feb 22, 2022	367.2	366	362.8	1.2
Jan 25, 2022	362.4	361.1	358.4	1.3
Dec 28, 2021	358.3	357.1	354.4	1.2
Nov 30, 2021	354.6	357.2	351.5	-2.6