United States NAHB Housing Market Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

USD-6

USD

Actual:

Forecast: 40

Previous/Revision:

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: 51

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is a composite measure that assesses the sentiment of the homebuilding industry in the United States, explicitly reflecting builder confidence regarding market conditions for new single-family homes. It focuses on three key areas: current sales conditions, anticipated sales over the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers, with values above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signaling contraction.

Frequency

The NAHB Housing Market Index is released monthly, typically on the third Tuesday of each month, and it is often considered a preliminary estimate, which could be revised in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders watch the HMI as it provides insights into the housing market, which is a crucial driver of the U.S. economy; higher-than-expected results can positively influence the stock market and U.S. dollar, signaling robust economic activity, while weaker readings may have negative repercussions for risk assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of homebuilders conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), with a focus on a sample of builders that assesses current sales, future sales expectations, and buyer traffic, employing a diffusion index methodology that compiles responses to create an overall confidence score.

Description

The NAHB HMI serves as a coincident economic indicator, providing timely insights into the housing market's health and its potential impact on broader economic conditions. It reflects builders' sentiments, which can indicate trends in housing demand, construction activity, and overall economic growth, thereby influencing related markets.

Additional Notes

The HMI is often compared with other housing market indicators, such as housing starts and building permits, and serves as a leading indicator because changes in builder sentiment frequently precede shifts in actual construction activity. Overall, the index can provide insights into regional housing market trends and can be indicative of consumer confidence and spending behavior.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A bullish tone: Signaling confidence in increased housing activity and economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for stocks due to potential increases in interest rates stemming from increased inflationary pressures in a thriving housing market.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	34	40	40	-6
Apr 16, 2025	40	37	39	3
Mar 17, 2025	39	42	42	-3
Feb 18, 2025	42	47	47	-5
Jan 16, 2025	47	45	46	2
Dec 17, 2024	46	47	46	-1
Nov 18, 2024	46	44	43	2
Oct 17, 2024	43	42	41	1
Sep 17, 2024	41	40	39	1
Aug 15, 2024	39	43	41	-4
Jul 16, 2024	42	44	43	-2
Jun 19, 2024	43	45	45	-2
May 15, 2024	45	51	51	-6
Apr 15, 2024	51	51	51
Mar 18, 2024	51	48	48	3
Feb 15, 2024	48	46	44	2
Jan 17, 2024	44	39	37	5
Dec 18, 2023	37	36	34	1
Nov 16, 2023	34	40	40	-6
Oct 17, 2023	40	44	44	-4
Sep 18, 2023	45	50	50	-5
Aug 15, 2023	50	56	56	-6
Jul 18, 2023	56	56	55
Jun 19, 2023	55	51	50	4
May 16, 2023	50	45	45	5
Apr 17, 2023	45	44	44	1
Mar 15, 2023	44	40	42	4
Feb 15, 2023	42	37	35	5
Jan 18, 2023	35	31	31	4
Dec 19, 2022	31	34	33	-3
Nov 16, 2022	33	36	38	-3
Oct 18, 2022	38	43	46	-5
Sep 19, 2022	46	47	49	-1
Aug 15, 2022	49	55	55	-6
Jul 18, 2022	55	65	67	-10
Jun 15, 2022	67	68	69	-1
May 17, 2022	69	75	77	-6
Apr 18, 2022	77	77	79
Mar 16, 2022	79	81	81	-2
Feb 16, 2022	82	83	83	-1
Jan 18, 2022	83	84	84	-1
Dec 15, 2021	84	83	83	1
Nov 16, 2021	83	80	80	3
Oct 18, 2021	80	76	76	4
Sep 20, 2021	76	74	75	2
Aug 17, 2021	75	80	80	-5
Jul 19, 2021	80	82	81	-2
Jun 15, 2021	81	83	83	-2
May 17, 2021	83	83	83
Apr 15, 2021	83	83	82
Mar 16, 2021	82	83	84	-1
Feb 17, 2021	84	83	83	1
Jan 20, 2021	83	86	86	-3
Dec 16, 2020	86	88	90	-2
Nov 17, 2020	90	85	85	5
Oct 19, 2020	85	83	83	2
Sep 16, 2020	83	78	78	5
Aug 17, 2020	78	73	72	5
Jul 16, 2020	72	60	58	12
Jun 16, 2020	58	45	37	13
May 18, 2020	37	35	30	2
Apr 15, 2020	30	55	72	-25
Mar 17, 2020	72	73	74	-1
Feb 18, 2020	74	75	75	-1
Jan 16, 2020	75	75	76
Dec 16, 2019	76	70	71	6
Nov 18, 2019	70	71	71	-1
Oct 16, 2019	71	68	68	3
Sep 17, 2019	68	66	67	2
Aug 15, 2019	66	65	65	1
Jul 16, 2019	65	64	64	1
Jun 17, 2019	64	67	66	-3
May 15, 2019	66	64	63	2
Apr 16, 2019	63	63	62
Mar 18, 2019	62	63	62	-1
Feb 19, 2019	62	59	58	3
Jan 16, 2019	58	56	56	2
Dec 17, 2018	56	61	60	-5
Nov 19, 2018	60	67	68	-7
Oct 16, 2018	68	67	67	1
Sep 18, 2018	67	66	67	1
Aug 15, 2018	67	67	68
Jul 17, 2018	68	68	68
Jun 18, 2018	68	70	70	-2
May 15, 2018	70	69	68	1
Apr 16, 2018	69	71	70	-2
Mar 15, 2018	70	71	71	-1
Feb 15, 2018	72	72	72
Jan 17, 2018	72	72	74
Dec 18, 2017	74	70	69	4
Nov 16, 2017	70	68	68	2
Oct 17, 2017	68	64	64	4
Sep 18, 2017	64	67	67	-3
Aug 15, 2017	68	65	64	3
Jul 18, 2017	64	67	66	-3
Jun 15, 2017	67	70	69	-3
May 15, 2017	70	68	68	2
Apr 17, 2017	68	70	71	-2
Mar 15, 2017	71	65	65	6
Feb 15, 2017	65	67	67	-2
Jan 18, 2017	67	69	69	-2
Dec 15, 2016	70	63	63	7
Nov 16, 2016	63	63	63
Oct 18, 2016	63	63	65
Sep 19, 2016	65	60	59	5
Aug 15, 2016	60	60	58
Jul 18, 2016	59	60	60	-1
Jun 16, 2016	60	59	58	1
May 16, 2016	58	59	58	-1
Apr 18, 2016	58	59	58	-1
Mar 15, 2016	58	59	58	-1
Feb 16, 2016	58	60	61	-2
Jan 19, 2016	60	61	60	-1
Dec 15, 2015	61	63	62	-2
Nov 17, 2015	62	64	65	-2
Oct 19, 2015	64	62	61	2
Sep 16, 2015	62	61	61	1
Aug 17, 2015	61	61	60
Jul 16, 2015	60	60	60
Jun 15, 2015	59	56	54	3
May 18, 2015	54	57	56	-3