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United States USD

United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.1%
| USD
Actual:
3.8%
Forecast: 3.9%
Previous/Revision:
3.8%
Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 3.7%
Period: May
What Does It Measure?
The Average Hourly Earnings YoY measures the year-over-year change in the average earnings of workers in the United States, assessing labor income trends and wage growth. Its primary focus is on employment and income levels, serving as a key indicator of inflationary pressure and consumer spending potential.
Frequency
This indicator is released on a monthly basis, typically on the first Friday of the month, providing a preliminary estimate of average earnings in the previous month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor Average Hourly Earnings because strong wage growth can signal increasing consumer purchasing power, which positively affects economic activity and may influence central bank policy. Higher-than-expected earnings data is generally bullish for the US dollar and equities, while weaker data may have a bearish effect.
What Is It Derived From?
Average Hourly Earnings are derived from data collected through the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which includes monthly responses from approximately 142,000 businesses covering about 689,000 individual worksites. The earnings figures are calculated by dividing the total earnings of production and non-supervisory employees by the total number of hours worked in the given period.
Description
The reported data for Average Hourly Earnings is presented as a Year-over-Year (YoY) percentage change, comparing the most recent month's earnings to the same month in the previous year. This measure is preferred because it smooths out seasonal fluctuations and reflects long-term trends in wage changes, which are crucial for understanding underlying economic conditions.
Additional Notes
The Average Hourly Earnings indicator serves as a coincident economic measure, providing insights into current labor market conditions and wage inflation. It is often analyzed alongside other employment metrics, such as the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, to gauge the overall health of the economy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.8%
3.9%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.9%
4%
-0.1%
4%
4.1%
3.9%
-0.1%
4.1%
3.8%
4.1%
0.3%
3.9%
4%
4%
-0.1%
4%
3.9%
4%
0.1%
4%
4%
3.9%
4%
3.8%
3.9%
0.2%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.9%
3.9%
4.1%
4.1%
3.9%
4%
0.2%
3.9%
4%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.5%
4.1%
4.4%
0.4%
4.1%
3.9%
4%
0.2%
4%
4%
4%
4.1%
4%
4.3%
0.1%
4.2%
4.3%
4.3%
-0.1%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
4.2%
4.4%
0.2%
4.4%
4.2%
4.4%
0.2%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
4.2%
4.3%
0.2%
4.2%
4.3%
4.6%
-0.1%
4.6%
4.7%
4.4%
-0.1%
4.4%
4.3%
4.9%
0.1%
4.6%
5%
4.8%
-0.4%
5.1%
4.6%
4.9%
0.5%
4.7%
4.7%
5%
5%
5.1%
5.2%
-0.1%
5.2%
5.3%
5.2%
-0.1%
5.2%
4.9%
5.2%
0.3%
5.1%
5%
5.3%
0.1%
5.2%
5.2%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
5.5%
5.2%
0.1%
5.1%
5.8%
5.5%
-0.7%
5.7%
5.2%
5%
0.5%
4.7%
4.2%
5.1%
0.5%
4.8%
5%
4.8%
-0.2%
4.9%
4.9%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4%
4.3%
4%
4.1%
0.3%
4%
3.8%
3.7%
0.2%
3.6%
3.7%
1.9%
-0.1%
2%
1.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
-0.4%
4.2%
0.7%
4.2%
4.5%
5.2%
-0.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.4%
5.1%
5.4%
0.3%
5.1%
4.4%
4.4%
0.7%
4.4%
4.3%
4.4%
0.1%
4.5%
4.6%
4.6%
-0.1%
4.7%
4.8%
4.6%
-0.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.7%
0.2%
4.8%
4.2%
4.9%
0.6%
5%
5.3%
6.6%
-0.3%
6.7%
8.5%
8%
-1.8%
7.9%
3.3%
3.3%
4.6%
3.1%
3%
3%
0.1%
3%
3%
3.1%
3.1%
3%
3%
0.1%
2.9%
3.1%
3.1%
-0.2%
3.1%
3%
3.2%
0.1%
3%
3%
3%
2.9%
3.2%
3.2%
-0.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.3%
0.1%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
0.1%
3.1%
3.2%
3.1%
-0.1%
3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
-0.1%
3.2%
3.3%
3.2%
-0.1%
3.2%
3.4%
3.4%
-0.2%
3.4%
3.3%
3.1%
0.1%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
3.2%
3%
3.1%
0.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
2.7%
2.7%
0.2%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
-0.2%
2.9%
2.6%
2.7%
0.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
2.4%
-0.2%
2.4%
2.7%
2.8%
-0.3%
2.9%
2.5%
2.7%
0.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
-0.1%
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
0.1%