Japan Unemployment Rate

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

0.1%

JPY

Actual:

2.5%

Forecast: 2.4%

Previous/Revision:

2.4%

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 2.5%

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The unemployment rate in Japan measures the percentage of the labor force that is without work but is actively seeking employment. This indicator primarily focuses on labor market conditions, assessing job availability and overall economic health, with key indicators including the number of unemployed persons and the workforce size.

Frequency

The unemployment rate is released monthly, typically as a final figure, with the data generally published on the first few days of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the unemployment rate as it directly impacts economic sentiment and can influence monetary policy decisions. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate is generally seen as bullish for the Japanese yen (JPY) and Japanese equities, while a higher-than-expected rate may lead to bearish sentiment in these markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The unemployment rate is derived from a household survey conducted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, which includes a representative sample of households across Japan. The data collection methodology involves direct interviews to ascertain employment status, along with statistical techniques to ensure accurate representation of labor market trends.

Description

This measure reflects labor market health, offering insights into economic strength or weakness, especially in terms of consumer spending capacity, as higher employment often correlates with increased discretionary income. The unemployment rate is typically viewed as a lagging economic indicator, meaning it often reflects past economic conditions rather than predicting future trends.

Additional Notes

The unemployment rate is often analyzed in conjunction with other labor market indicators, such as job vacancy rates and labor force participation rates, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of economic health. As a lagging measure, it relates closely to broader economic performance, reflecting changes that have already occurred in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the unemployment rate comes in lower than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. If it comes in higher than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 01, 2025	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2025	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Mar 03, 2025	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%
Jan 30, 2025	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Dec 26, 2024	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Nov 28, 2024	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Oct 28, 2024	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2024	2.5%	2.6%	2.7%	-0.1%
Aug 29, 2024	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	0.2%
Jul 29, 2024	2.5%	2.6%	2.6%	-0.1%
Jun 27, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
May 30, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
Apr 29, 2024	2.6%	2.5%	2.6%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2024	2.6%	2.4%	2.4%	0.2%
Feb 29, 2024	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Jan 29, 2024	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Dec 25, 2023	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Nov 30, 2023	2.5%	2.6%	2.6%	-0.1%
Oct 30, 2023	2.6%	2.6%	2.7%
Sep 28, 2023	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%	0.1%
Aug 28, 2023	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	0.2%
Jul 31, 2023	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
Jun 29, 2023	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
May 29, 2023	2.6%	2.7%	2.8%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2023	2.8%	2.5%	2.6%	0.3%
Mar 30, 2023	2.6%	2.4%	2.4%	0.2%
Mar 02, 2023	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jan 30, 2023	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Dec 26, 2022	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
Nov 28, 2022	2.6%	2.5%	2.6%	0.1%
Oct 27, 2022	2.6%	2.5%	2.5%	0.1%
Sep 29, 2022	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
Aug 29, 2022	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
Jul 28, 2022	2.6%	2.5%	2.6%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	2.6%	2.5%	2.5%	0.1%
May 30, 2022	2.5%	2.6%	2.6%	-0.1%
Apr 25, 2022	2.6%	2.7%	2.7%	-0.1%
Mar 28, 2022	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	-0.1%
Mar 03, 2022	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%	0.1%
Jan 31, 2022	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	-0.1%
Dec 27, 2021	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%	0.1%
Nov 29, 2021	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2021	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Sep 30, 2021	2.8%	2.9%	2.8%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2021	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2021	2.9%	3%	3%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2021	3%	2.9%	2.8%	0.1%
May 27, 2021	2.8%	2.7%	2.6%	0.1%
Apr 29, 2021	2.6%	2.9%	2.9%	-0.3%
Mar 29, 2021	2.9%	3%	2.9%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2021	2.9%	3%	2.9%	-0.1%
Jan 28, 2021	2.9%	3%	2.9%	-0.1%
Dec 24, 2020	2.9%	3.1%	3.1%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2020	3.1%	3.1%	3%
Oct 29, 2020	3%	3.1%	3%	-0.1%
Oct 01, 2020	3%	3%	2.9%
Aug 31, 2020	2.9%	3%	2.8%	-0.1%
Jul 30, 2020	2.8%	3.1%	2.9%	-0.3%
Jun 29, 2020	2.9%	2.8%	2.6%	0.1%
May 28, 2020	2.6%	2.7%	2.5%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2020	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Mar 30, 2020	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Feb 27, 2020	2.4%	2.2%	2.2%	0.2%
Jan 30, 2020	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%	-0.1%
Dec 26, 2019	2.2%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.2%
Nov 28, 2019	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Oct 31, 2019	2.4%	2.3%	2.2%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2019	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%	-0.1%
Aug 29, 2019	2.2%	2.4%	2.3%	-0.2%
Jul 29, 2019	2.3%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.1%
Jun 27, 2019	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
May 30, 2019	2.4%	2.4%	2.5%
Apr 25, 2019	2.5%	2.4%	2.3%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2019	2.3%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.2%
Feb 28, 2019	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%
Jan 31, 2019	2.4%	2.4%	2.5%
Dec 27, 2018	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%
Nov 29, 2018	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	0.1%
Oct 29, 2018	2.3%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.1%
Sep 27, 2018	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2018	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%
Jul 30, 2018	2.4%	2.3%	2.2%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2018	2.2%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.3%
May 28, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Apr 26, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Mar 29, 2018	2.5%	2.6%	2.4%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2018	2.4%	2.7%	2.8%	-0.3%
Jan 29, 2018	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%	0.1%
Dec 25, 2017	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2017	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Oct 30, 2017	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Sep 28, 2017	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Aug 28, 2017	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Jul 27, 2017	2.8%	3%	3.1%	-0.2%
Jun 29, 2017	3.1%	2.8%	2.8%	0.3%
May 29, 2017	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Apr 27, 2017	2.8%	2.9%	2.8%	-0.1%
Mar 30, 2017	2.8%	3%	3%	-0.2%
Mar 02, 2017	3%	3%	3.1%
Jan 30, 2017	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
Dec 26, 2016	3.1%	3%	3%	0.1%
Nov 28, 2016	3%	3%	3%
Oct 27, 2016	3%	3.1%	3.1%	-0.1%
Sep 29, 2016	3.1%	3%	3%	0.1%
Aug 29, 2016	3%	3.1%	3.1%	-0.1%
Jul 28, 2016	3.1%	3.2%	3.2%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%
May 30, 2016	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%
Apr 27, 2016	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%	-0.1%
Mar 28, 2016	3.3%	3.2%	3.2%	0.1%
Feb 29, 2016	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%	-0.1%
Jan 28, 2016	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
Dec 24, 2015	3.3%	3.2%	3.1%	0.1%
Nov 26, 2015	3.1%	3.4%	3.4%	-0.3%
Oct 29, 2015	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
Oct 02, 2015	3.4%	3.3%	3.3%	0.1%
Aug 28, 2015	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2015	3.4%	3.3%	3.3%	0.1%
Jun 26, 2015	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
May 29, 2015	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%	-0.1%
May 01, 2015	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	-0.1%