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United States USD

United States 15-Year Mortgage Rate

Impact:
Low
Source: Freddie Mac

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
6.01%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
5.92%
Period: May/22

Next Release:

Date:
Period: May/29
What Does It Measure?
The 15-Year Mortgage Rate measures the average interest rate charged on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States. This indicator focuses primarily on housing finance, affecting the accessibility of home ownership, the cost of borrowing, and the overall health of the real estate market.
Frequency
This indicator is typically released on a weekly basis, with the data representing the average rates from the preceding week. It provides a preliminary estimate that may be subject to revision in subsequent reports.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders watch the 15-Year Mortgage Rate closely because it influences consumer borrowing costs, particularly in the housing sector, which is a critical component of the economy. Fluctuations in this rate can impact various asset classes like currencies, equities, and bonds, with higher rates often signaling a bearish outlook for real estate stocks and increased borrowing costs for consumers.
What Is It Derived From?
The 15-Year Mortgage Rate is calculated based on data from lenders offering mortgage loans across the United States. It is derived from actual mortgage applications and rates provided by banks and other financial institutions, incorporating a variety of loan types and borrower qualifications to present a comprehensive average.
Description
Preliminary data for the 15-Year Mortgage Rate is based on estimates from initial reports and is subject to adjustments in future releases, while final data offers a truer reflection of the borrowing environment after revisions. The event typically reports on a year-over-year (YoY) basis to account for seasonal variations and provide a more stable economic trend, although week-over-week or month-over-month comparisons may also be relevant for immediate market reactions.
Additional Notes
This indicator serves as a leading economic measure, often predicting trends in housing construction, consumer spending, and overall economic growth. Changes in the 15-Year Mortgage Rate may correlate with broader economic indicators such as the Fed's interest rate decisions, inflation data, and employment statistics.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
6.01%
5.92%
5.92%
5.89%
5.89%
5.92%
5.92%
5.94%
5.94%
6.03%
6.03%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.89%
5.89%
5.83%
5.83%
5.8%
5.8%
5.79%
5.79%
5.94%
5.94%
6.04%
6.04%
6.09%
6.09%
6.05%
6.05%
6.12%
6.12%
6.16%
6.16%
6.27%
6.27%
6.14%
6.14%
6.13%
6.13%
6%
6%
5.92%
5.92%
5.84%
5.84%
5.96%
5.96%
6.1%
6.1%
6.02%
6.02%
5.99%
5.99%
6%
6%
5.99%
5.99%
5.71%
5.71%
5.63%
5.63%
5.41%
5.41%
5.25%
5.25%
5.16%
5.16%
5.15%
5.15%
5.27%
5.27%
5.47%
5.47%
5.51%
5.51%
5.62%
5.62%
5.66%
5.66%
5.63%
5.63%
5.99%
5.99%
6.07%
6.07%
6.05%
6.05%
6.17%
6.17%
6.25%
6.25%
6.16%
6.16%
6.13%
6.13%
6.17%
6.17%
6.29%
6.29%
6.36%
6.36%
6.24%
6.24%
6.28%
6.28%
6.38%
6.38%
6.47%
6.47%
6.44%
6.44%
6.39%
6.39%
6.16%
6.16%
6.06%
6.06%
6.11%
6.11%
6.21%
6.21%
6.16%
6.16%
6.22%
6.22%
6.26%
6.26%
6.29%
6.29%
6.12%
6.12%
5.9%
5.9%
5.94%
5.94%
5.96%
5.96%
5.76%
5.76%
5.87%
5.87%
5.89%
5.89%
5.93%
5.93%
5.95%
5.95%
6.38%
6.38%
6.29%
6.29%
6.56%
6.56%
6.67%
6.67%
6.76%
6.76%
6.81%
6.81%
7.03%
7.03%
7.03%
7.03%
6.92%
6.92%
6.89%
6.89%
6.78%
6.78%
6.72%
6.72%
6.54%
6.54%
6.51%
6.51%
6.52%
6.52%
6.55%
6.55%
6.55%
6.55%
6.46%
6.46%
6.34%
6.34%
6.25%
6.25%
6.11%
6.11%
6.06%
6.06%
6.3%
6.3%
6.24%
6.24%
6.06%
6.06%
6.03%
6.03%
6.1%
6.1%
6.07%
6.07%
6.18%
6.18%
5.97%