Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

15.1

EUR

Actual:

11.6

Forecast: -3.5

Previous/Revision:

-18.5

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 5

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index measures the level of optimism or pessimism among institutional investors and analysts regarding the Eurozone's economic outlook. It primarily focuses on expectations for economic growth, inflation, and investment prospects within the Eurozone, providing insights into future economic conditions based on responses from over 300 financial experts.

Frequency

The index is released monthly, with preliminary estimates usually available on the second Tuesday of each month, assessing expectations for the upcoming six months.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index because it serves as a barometer of future economic activity in the Eurozone, influencing investment decisions in equities and currency markets. Stronger-than-expected sentiment can lead to appreciation of the Euro and an uptick in Eurozone stock indices, while weaker results may negatively impact these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a monthly survey of financial analysts and institutional investors who assess their expectations for the Eurozone’s economic performance. The data collection involves a diffusion index that weights responses based on the degree of optimism or pessimism, resulting in a single index score that reflects overall sentiment.

Description

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is a leading economic indicator, reflecting the collective expectations of financial experts about the future economic situation in the Eurozone. It is designed to provide an early indication of economic trends that could impact markets, allowing traders and policymakers to gauge shifts in economic sentiment and potential growth trajectories.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic measure, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is often compared to other indicators such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and consumer confidence indices, enhancing its diagnostic value for economic trends. This index is particularly relevant for assessing the Eurozone's performance amidst changing global economic conditions, making it an essential component of economic analysis and forecasting.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 13, 2025	11.6	-3.5	-18.5	15.1
Apr 15, 2025	-18.5	14.2	39.8	-32.7
Mar 18, 2025	39.8	39.6	24.2	0.2
Feb 18, 2025	24.2	24.3	18	-0.1
Jan 21, 2025	18	16.9	17	1.1
Dec 17, 2024	17	12.2	12.5	4.8
Nov 12, 2024	12.5	20.5	20.1	-8
Oct 15, 2024	20.1	16.9	9.3	3.2
Sep 17, 2024	9.3	16.3	17.9	-7
Aug 13, 2024	17.9	35.4	43.7	-17.5
Jul 16, 2024	43.7	48.1	51.3	-4.4
Jun 18, 2024	51.3	47.8	47	3.5
May 14, 2024	47	46.1	43.9	0.9
Apr 16, 2024	43.9	37.2	33.5	6.7
Mar 19, 2024	33.5	28	25	5.5
Feb 13, 2024	25	20.1	22.7	4.9
Jan 16, 2024	22.7	21.9	23	0.8
Dec 12, 2023	23	11.2	13.8	11.8
Nov 14, 2023	13.8	6.1	2.3	7.7
Oct 17, 2023	2.3	-8	-8.9	10.3
Sep 12, 2023	-8.9	-6.2	-5.5	-2.7
Aug 15, 2023	-5.5	-14	-12.2	8.5
Jul 11, 2023	-12.2	-17	-10	4.8
Jun 13, 2023	-10	-11.9	-9.4	1.9
May 16, 2023	-9.4	-1	6.4	-8.4
Apr 18, 2023	6.4	13	10	-6.6
Mar 21, 2023	10	16	29.7	-6
Feb 21, 2023	29.7	22.3	16.7	7.4
Jan 17, 2023	16.7	-17	-23.6	33.7
Dec 13, 2022	-23.6	-25.7	-38.7	2.1
Nov 15, 2022	-38.7	-57.2	-59.7	18.5
Oct 18, 2022	-59.7	-61.2	-60.7	1.5
Sep 13, 2022	-60.7	-58.3	-54.9	-2.4
Aug 16, 2022	-54.9	-57	-51.1	2.1
Jul 12, 2022	-53.8	-33.5	-28	-20.3
Jun 14, 2022	-28	-25.9	-29.5	-2.1
May 10, 2022	-29.5	-45	-43	15.5
Apr 12, 2022	-43	-28	-38.7	-15
Mar 15, 2022	-38.7	10.3	48.6	-49
Feb 15, 2022	48.6	49.6	49.4	-1
Jan 18, 2022	49.4	29.5	26.8	19.9
Dec 07, 2021	26.8	23.2	25.9	3.6
Nov 09, 2021	25.9	18.5	21	7.4
Oct 12, 2021	21	20	31.1	1
Sep 07, 2021	31.1	30	42.7	1.1
Aug 10, 2021	42.7	45.6	61.2	-2.9
Jul 06, 2021	61.2	78.9	81.3	-17.7
Jun 08, 2021	81.3	84.9	84	-3.6
May 11, 2021	84	65	66.3	19
Apr 13, 2021	66.3	77	74	-10.7
Mar 16, 2021	74	74.5	69.6	-0.5
Feb 16, 2021	69.6	57	58.3	12.6
Jan 19, 2021	58.3	57	54.4	1.3
Dec 08, 2020	54.4	32	32.8	22.4
Nov 10, 2020	32.8	36	52.3	-3.2
Oct 13, 2020	52.3	60	73.9	-7.7
Sep 15, 2020	73.9	51.5	64	22.4
Aug 11, 2020	64	62	59.6	2
Jul 14, 2020	59.6	51	58.6	8.6
Jun 16, 2020	58.6	48	46	10.6
May 19, 2020	46	29	25.2	17
Apr 21, 2020	25.2	-62	-49.5	87.2
Mar 17, 2020	-49.5	-36	10.4	-13.5
Feb 18, 2020	10.4	30	25.6	-19.6
Jan 21, 2020	25.6	5.5	11.2	20.1
Dec 10, 2019	11.2	-17.7	-1	28.9
Nov 12, 2019	-1	-32.5	-23.5	31.5
Oct 15, 2019	-23.5	-33	-22.4	9.5
Sep 17, 2019	-22.4	-32.2	-43.6	9.8
Aug 13, 2019	-43.6	-21.7	-20.3	-21.9
Jul 16, 2019	-20.3	-20.9	-20.2	0.6
Jun 18, 2019	-20.2	-3.6	-1.6	-16.6
May 14, 2019	-1.6	5	4.5	-6.6
Apr 16, 2019	4.5	1.2	-2.5	3.3
Mar 19, 2019	-2.5	-18.7	-16.6	16.2
Feb 19, 2019	-16.6	-18.2	-20.9	1.6
Jan 22, 2019	-20.9	-20.1	-21	-0.8
Dec 11, 2018	-21	-23.2	-22	2.2
Nov 13, 2018	-22	-17.3	-19.4	-4.7
Oct 16, 2018	-19.4	-9.2	-7.2	-10.2
Sep 11, 2018	-7.2	-10.9	-11.1	3.7
Aug 14, 2018	-11.1	-16.4	-18.7	5.3
Jul 10, 2018	-18.7	-13.2	-12.6	-5.5
Jun 12, 2018	-12.6	0.1	2.4	-12.7
May 15, 2018	2.4	2	1.9	0.4
Apr 17, 2018	1.9	7.3	13.4	-5.4
Mar 20, 2018	13.4	28.1	29.3	-14.7
Feb 20, 2018	29.3	28.4	31.8	0.9
Jan 23, 2018	31.8	29.7	29	2.1
Dec 12, 2017	29	30.2	30.9	-1.2
Nov 14, 2017	30.9	29.3	26.7	1.6
Oct 17, 2017	26.7	34.2	31.7	-7.5
Sep 19, 2017	31.7	32.4	29.3	-0.7
Aug 22, 2017	29.3	34.2	35.6	-4.9
Jul 18, 2017	35.6	37.2	37.7	-1.6
Jun 13, 2017	37.7	37.2	35.1	0.5
May 16, 2017	35.1	29.1	26.3	6
Apr 11, 2017	26.3	25	25.6	1.3
Mar 14, 2017	25.6	19.3	17.1	6.3
Feb 14, 2017	17.1	22.3	23.2	-5.2
Jan 17, 2017	23.2	24.2	18.1	-1
Dec 13, 2016	18.1	16.7	15.8	1.4
Nov 15, 2016	15.8	14.3	12.3	1.5
Oct 11, 2016	12.3	6.3	5.4	6
Sep 13, 2016	5.4	6.2	4.6	-0.8
Aug 16, 2016	4.6	-6.3	-14.7	10.9
Jul 19, 2016	-14.7	14.6	20.2	-29.3
Jun 21, 2016	20.2	15.3	16.8	4.9
May 24, 2016	16.8	26.16	21.5	-9.36
Apr 19, 2016	21.5	8.8	10.6	12.7
Mar 22, 2016	10.6	8.2	13.6	2.4
Feb 16, 2016	13.6	10.3	22.7	3.3
Jan 19, 2016	22.7	27.9	33.9	-5.2
Dec 15, 2015	33.9	34.4	28.3	-0.5
Nov 17, 2015	28.3	35.2	30.1	-6.9
Oct 13, 2015	30.1	25.37	33.3	4.73
Sep 15, 2015	33.3	47.9	47.6	-14.6
Aug 11, 2015	47.6	33.56	42.7	14.04
Jul 14, 2015	42.7	48.15	53.7	-5.45
Jun 16, 2015	53.7	58.9	61.2	-5.2
May 19, 2015	61.2	65.6	64.8	-4.4