Australia Westpac Leading Index MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Melbourne Institute

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

Forecast: 0%

Previous/Revision:

-0.2%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.2%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Westpac Leading Index measures future economic activity in Australia by assessing key components that predict changes in the economic growth trajectory, focusing on factors such as consumer sentiment, employment trends, and business conditions. This national indicator is crucial for evaluating potential shifts in production and inflationary pressures within the economy.

Frequency

The Westpac Leading Index is released monthly, typically on the third Thursday of each month, and it may include preliminary estimates subject to later revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this index as it provides insight into the future direction of the Australian economy, influencing expectations for monetary policy and financial markets. A higher-than-expected result is generally bullish for the Australian dollar (AUD) and equities, while a lower result may signal economic slowing and negatively impact market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is calculated using a composite of seven growth indicators, which include metrics such as new vehicle sales, building approvals, and stock market performance, weighted according to their predictive power for economic activity. The methodology employs diffusion indices to capture the percentage of indicators showing positive growth, providing a comprehensive view of future trends.

Description

The Westpac Leading Index is significant particularly for its forward-looking nature, intending to predict economic conditions for the next three to nine months, thus offering valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and investors. The preliminary figures are valued for their timeliness in indicating shifts in the economy, while the final figures offer more refined insights that solidify market assessments and trends.

Additional Notes

This index serves as a leading economic measure, providing foresight into future growth patterns and potential shifts in economic momentum. Comparatively, it is often analyzed alongside other leading indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) or the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, to create a holistic view of the economic landscape both nationally and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 21, 2025	0%	0%	-0.2%
Apr 16, 2025	-0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Mar 19, 2025	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Feb 19, 2025	0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.1%
Jan 22, 2025	0%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.4%
Dec 18, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Nov 20, 2024	0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.1%
Oct 16, 2024	0%	0.2%	0%	-0.2%
Sep 18, 2024	-0.1%	0%	0%	-0.1%
Aug 21, 2024	0%	0%	0%
Jul 17, 2024	0%	0.2%	0%	-0.2%
Jun 26, 2024	0%	0.1%	0%	-0.1%
May 29, 2024	0%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
Apr 17, 2024	-0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Mar 27, 2024	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.3%
Feb 21, 2024	-0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.2%
Jan 24, 2024	0.01%	-0.1%	0.1%	0.11%
Dec 20, 2023	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.2%
Nov 22, 2023	-0.03%	0.1%	0.07%	-0.13%
Oct 18, 2023	0.07%	-0.2%	-0.04%	0.27%
Sep 20, 2023	-0.04%	-0.1%	0.01%	0.06%
Aug 16, 2023	0%		0.1%
Jul 19, 2023	0.1%	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.4%
Jun 21, 2023	0%	-0.1%	0%	0.1%
May 24, 2023	0%	0.2%	-0.01%	-0.2%
Apr 19, 2023	-0.01%	-0.1%	-0.06%	0.09%
Mar 22, 2023	-0.06%	-0.3%	-0.12%	0.24%
Feb 22, 2023	-0.08%	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.12%
Jan 25, 2023	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Dec 21, 2022	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.2%
Nov 15, 2022	-0.1%	-0.2%	0%	0.1%
Oct 18, 2022	0%		-0.2%
Sep 21, 2022	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Aug 17, 2022	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Jul 20, 2022	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 22, 2022	-0.06%	-0.1%	-0.06%	0.04%
May 18, 2022	-0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.4%
Apr 20, 2022	0.3%	-0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
Mar 15, 2022	-0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.4%
Feb 15, 2022	0.1%	0.3%	0%	-0.2%
Jan 26, 2022	-0.03%	0.2%	0.12%	-0.23%
Dec 22, 2021	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.2%
Nov 17, 2021	0.16%	0.1%	-0.01%	0.06%
Oct 20, 2021	-0.02%	-0.1%	-0.27%	0.08%
Sep 22, 2021	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.12%	-0.2%
Aug 18, 2021	-0.12%	0.2%	-0.06%	-0.32%
Jul 21, 2021	-0.07%		-0.06%
Jun 16, 2021	-0.06%	0.3%	0.19%	-0.36%
May 26, 2021	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
Apr 21, 2021	0.38%	-0.1%	0.16%	0.48%
Mar 17, 2021	0.02%	0.4%	-0.1%	-0.38%
Feb 17, 2021	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Jan 27, 2021	0.1%		0.7%
Dec 16, 2020	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Nov 18, 2020	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.2%
Oct 21, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
Sep 16, 2020	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
Aug 19, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
Jul 22, 2020	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 17, 2020	0.2%	-0.7%	-1.5%	0.9%
May 20, 2020	-1.5%	-2.5%	-0.7%	1%
Apr 22, 2020	-0.8%	-1%	-0.4%	0.2%
Mar 18, 2020	-0.4%	-0.1%	0%	-0.3%
Feb 19, 2020	0.05%	-0.2%	0.01%	0.25%
Jan 29, 2020	0.05%	-0.2%	-0.03%	0.25%
Dec 18, 2019	-0.09%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.01%
Nov 20, 2019	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.12%	0.2%
Oct 16, 2019	-0.1%	0%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Sep 18, 2019	-0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
Aug 21, 2019	0.1%	0%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jul 17, 2019	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.08%	0.1%
Jun 19, 2019	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
May 22, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.3%
Apr 17, 2019	0.2%	0%	0%	0.2%
Mar 20, 2019	0%	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Feb 20, 2019	0%	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Jan 23, 2019	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.3%
Dec 18, 2018	-0.1%	0.1%	0.08%	-0.2%
Nov 21, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Oct 17, 2018	-0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.3%
Sep 19, 2018	0.1%	-0.2%	0%	0.3%
Aug 22, 2018	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 18, 2018	0%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Jun 20, 2018	-0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%
May 23, 2018	0.2%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Apr 18, 2018	-0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.3%
Mar 20, 2018	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.2%
Feb 21, 2018	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.2%
Jan 24, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 19, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 21, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 17, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 20, 2017	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Aug 16, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Jul 19, 2017	-0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.2%
Jun 21, 2017	0%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
May 24, 2017	-0.1%		0.1%
Apr 19, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 21, 2017	-0.1%		0%
Feb 21, 2017	0%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%
Jan 24, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0%	0.2%
Dec 20, 2016	0%		0.1%
Nov 15, 2016	0.1%		0.1%
Oct 18, 2016	0.1%		0%
Sep 21, 2016	0%		0.08%
Aug 17, 2016	0.08%		-0.2%
Jul 20, 2016	-0.2%		0.2%
Jun 22, 2016	0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.4%
May 18, 2016	-0.2%		-0.1%
Apr 20, 2016	-0.1%		-0.15%
Mar 15, 2016	-0.15%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.25%
Feb 16, 2016	0%	0.1%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Jan 26, 2016	-0.3%		-0.2%
Dec 15, 2015	-0.2%		0.1%
Nov 17, 2015	0.1%		0.1%
Oct 21, 2015	0.1%		-0.3%
Sep 16, 2015	-0.3%		0.1%
Aug 19, 2015	0%		0%
Jul 22, 2015	0%		-0.1%
Jun 17, 2015	-0.1%		0%
May 27, 2015	0.1%		-0.3%