China Unemployment Rate

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

Actual:

5.1%

Forecast: 5.2%

Previous/Revision:

5.2%

Period: April

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 5.1%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The China Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work within the country. The primary focus of this indicator is on labor market conditions, assessing key areas such as economic stability, potential inflationary pressure due to labor shortages, and overall economic health at a national level.

Frequency

The unemployment rate in China is typically released on a monthly basis, with the data presented as a preliminary estimate subject to possible revision when final figures are made available about ten days after the close of the reporting month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the China Unemployment Rate as it holds significant implications for economic growth and consumer spending in the world's second-largest economy. An unexpected rise in unemployment may lead to bearish impacts on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and equities, while a decrease could bolster investor confidence and support market gains.

What Is It Derived From?

The unemployment rate is derived from surveys conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which queries a representative sampling of urban households about employment status. The calculation involves dividing the number of unemployed individuals actively seeking work by the total labor force, with strict definitions on what constitutes "unemployed."

Description

The unemployment rate provides an essential snapshot of economic activity and labor market health in China, reflecting the balance between job availability and the number of individuals seeking employment. It serves as a coincident economic indicator, providing real-time insights into the performance of the Chinese economy and its labor dynamics.

Additional Notes

The unemployment rate can be compared to other labor market indicators, such as the urban employment rate and youth unemployment figures, for comprehensive labor market analysis. Furthermore, this indicator is seen as a lagging measure, as it reflects conditions that exist after economic changes or policies have been implemented.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 19, 2025	5.1%	5.2%	5.2%	-0.1%
Apr 16, 2025	5.2%	5.3%	5.4%	-0.1%
Mar 17, 2025	5.4%	5.1%	5.2%	0.3%
Jan 17, 2025	5.1%	5%	5%	0.1%
Dec 16, 2024	5%	5%	5%
Nov 15, 2024	5%	5.1%	5.1%	-0.1%
Oct 18, 2024	5.1%	5.3%	5.3%	-0.2%
Sep 14, 2024	5.3%	5.2%	5.2%	0.1%
Aug 15, 2024	5.2%	5.1%	5%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2024	5%	5%	5%
Jun 17, 2024	5%	5%	5%
May 17, 2024	5%	5.2%	5.2%	-0.2%
Apr 16, 2024	5.2%	5.2%	5.3%
Mar 18, 2024	5.3%	5.1%	5.2%	0.2%
Jan 17, 2024	5.1%	5%	5%	0.1%
Dec 15, 2023	5%	5%	5%
Nov 15, 2023	5%	5%	5%
Oct 18, 2023	5%	5.2%	5.2%	-0.2%
Sep 15, 2023	5.2%	5.4%	5.3%	-0.2%
Aug 15, 2023	5.3%	5.2%	5.2%	0.1%
Jul 17, 2023	5.2%	5.3%	5.2%	-0.1%
Jun 15, 2023	5.2%	5.2%	5.2%
May 16, 2023	5.2%	5.3%	5.3%	-0.1%
Apr 18, 2023	5.3%	5.5%	5.6%	-0.2%
Mar 15, 2023	5.6%	5.5%	5.5%	0.1%
Jan 17, 2023	5.5%	5.9%	5.7%	-0.4%
Dec 15, 2022	5.7%	5.5%	5.5%	0.2%
Nov 15, 2022	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Oct 24, 2022	5.5%	5.2%	5.3%	0.3%
Sep 16, 2022	5.3%	5.4%	5.4%	-0.1%
Aug 15, 2022	5.4%	5.5%	5.5%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2022	5.5%	5.9%	5.9%	-0.4%
Jun 15, 2022	5.9%	6.1%	6.1%	-0.2%
May 16, 2022	6.1%	6%	5.8%	0.1%
Apr 18, 2022	5.8%	5.5%	5.5%	0.3%
Mar 15, 2022	5.5%	5.1%	5.3%	0.4%
Jan 17, 2022	5.1%	5%	5%	0.1%
Dec 15, 2021	5%	4.9%	4.9%	0.1%
Nov 15, 2021	4.9%	4.9%	4.9%
Oct 18, 2021	4.9%	5.1%	5.1%	-0.2%
Sep 15, 2021	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%
Aug 16, 2021	5.1%	5%	5%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2021	5%	5%	5%
Jun 16, 2021	5%	5%	5.1%
May 17, 2021	5.1%	5.3%	5.3%	-0.2%
Apr 16, 2021	5.3%	5.5%	5.5%	-0.2%
Mar 15, 2021	5.5%	5.1%	5.2%	0.4%
Jan 18, 2021	5.2%	5.2%	5.2%
Dec 15, 2020	5.2%	5.5%	5.3%	-0.3%
Nov 16, 2020	5.3%	5.5%	5.4%	-0.2%
Oct 19, 2020	5.4%	5.5%	5.6%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2020	5.6%	5.6%	5.7%
Aug 14, 2020	5.7%	5.7%	5.7%
Jul 16, 2020	5.7%	5.7%	5.9%
Jun 15, 2020	5.9%	6.2%	6%	-0.3%
May 15, 2020	6%	6.3%	5.9%	-0.3%