Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

Actual:

3.1%

Forecast: 3.3%

Previous/Revision:

3.6%

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 3%

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as fresh food. This indicator primarily assesses inflationary pressures within the Tokyo metropolitan area and serves as a crucial gauge of the overall cost of living, consumer spending, and economic stability in Japan.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the last business day of the month, and presents preliminary figures that may be subject to revision in later releases.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Tokyo Core CPI YoY as it offers insight into inflation trends, which can influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation readings tend to support the Japanese yen, while lower readings can lead to a dip in currency value and affect equities negatively.

What Is It Derived From?

The Tokyo Core CPI is derived from a survey that collects data on prices from a wide range of retail and service establishments in the Tokyo area. This data collection involves comparing the current prices of a fixed basket of goods and services against their prices from the previous year, using established statistical techniques to ensure accuracy.

Description

The Tokyo Core CPI YoY compares the current price level of a predefined basket of goods and services to that of the same basket in the previous year. This YoY measurement effectively smoothes out seasonal fluctuations and provides a clearer view of long-term inflation trends, making it a preferred metric for assessing overall economic stability and consumer purchasing power in Japan.

Additional Notes

The Tokyo Core CPI serves as a leading economic measure, providing early signals about inflation trends that may affect consumer behavior and central bank policy. Additionally, this indicator is closely watched in relation to other inflation measures within Japan and can reflect broader economic trends impacting not only the local but also the national economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation concerns, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 26, 2025	3.1%	3.3%	3.6%	-0.2%
May 29, 2025	3.6%	3.5%	3.4%	0.1%
Apr 24, 2025	3.4%	3.2%	2.4%	0.2%
Mar 27, 2025	2.4%	2.2%	2.2%	0.2%
Feb 27, 2025	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jan 30, 2025	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Dec 26, 2024	2.4%	2.5%	2.2%	-0.1%
Nov 28, 2024	2.2%	2.1%	1.8%	0.1%
Oct 24, 2024	1.8%	1.7%	2%	0.1%
Sep 26, 2024	2%	2%	2.4%
Aug 29, 2024	2.4%	2.2%	2.2%	0.2%
Jul 25, 2024	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Jun 27, 2024	2.1%	2%	1.9%	0.1%
May 30, 2024	1.9%	1.9%	1.6%
Apr 25, 2024	1.6%	2.2%	2.4%	-0.6%
Mar 28, 2024	2.4%	2.4%	2.5%
Mar 04, 2024	2.5%	2.5%	1.8%
Jan 25, 2024	1.6%	1.9%	2.1%	-0.3%
Jan 08, 2024	2.1%	2.1%	2.3%
Dec 04, 2023	2.3%	2.4%	2.7%	-0.1%
Oct 26, 2023	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	0.2%
Sep 28, 2023	2.5%	2.6%	2.8%	-0.1%
Aug 24, 2023	2.8%	2.9%	3%	-0.1%
Jul 27, 2023	3%	2.9%	3.2%	0.1%
Jun 29, 2023	3.2%	3.3%	3.2%	-0.1%
May 25, 2023	3.2%	3.3%	3.5%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2023	3.5%	3.2%	3.2%	0.3%
Mar 30, 2023	3.2%	3.1%	3.3%	0.1%
Mar 02, 2023	3.3%	3.3%	4.3%
Jan 26, 2023	4.3%	4.2%	3.9%	0.1%
Jan 09, 2023	4%	3.8%	3.6%	0.2%
Nov 24, 2022	3.6%	3.5%	3.4%	0.1%
Oct 27, 2022	3.4%	3.1%	2.8%	0.3%
Oct 03, 2022	2.8%	2.8%	2.6%
Aug 25, 2022	2.6%	2.5%	2.3%	0.1%
Jul 28, 2022	2.3%	2.2%	2.1%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	2.1%	2.1%	1.9%
May 26, 2022	1.9%	2%	1.9%	-0.1%
May 05, 2022	1.9%	1.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Mar 24, 2022	0.8%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%
Feb 24, 2022	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
Jan 27, 2022	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jan 06, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
Nov 25, 2021	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2021	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2%
Oct 04, 2021	0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.1%
Aug 26, 2021	0%	-0.2%	-0.3%	0.2%
Aug 02, 2021	0.1%	0%	0%	0.1%
Jun 24, 2021	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
May 27, 2021	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Apr 29, 2021	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Mar 25, 2021	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.3%	0.1%
Feb 25, 2021	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.5%	0.1%
Jan 28, 2021	-0.4%	-0.6%	-0.9%	0.2%
Dec 24, 2020	-0.9%	-0.8%	-0.7%	-0.1%
Nov 26, 2020	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.5%
Oct 29, 2020	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.2%
Sep 28, 2020	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%
Aug 27, 2020	-0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.6%
Aug 03, 2020	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jun 25, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 28, 2020	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.4%
Apr 30, 2020	-0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.2%
Mar 26, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Feb 27, 2020	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	-0.1%
Jan 30, 2020	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	-0.1%
Dec 26, 2019	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%	0.2%
Nov 28, 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Oct 28, 2019	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	-0.2%
Sep 26, 2019	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	-0.1%
Aug 29, 2019	0.7%	0.7%	0.9%
Jul 25, 2019	0.9%	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
Jun 27, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%
May 30, 2019	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.1%
Apr 25, 2019	1.3%	1.1%	1.1%	0.2%
Mar 28, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Feb 28, 2019	1.1%	1%	1.1%	0.1%
Jan 24, 2019	1.1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.2%
Dec 27, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	1%
Nov 29, 2018	1%	1%	1%
Oct 25, 2018	1%	1%	1%
Sep 27, 2018	1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.1%
Aug 30, 2018	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Jul 26, 2018	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2018	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.1%
May 24, 2018	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%	-0.1%
Apr 26, 2018	0.6%	0.8%	0.8%	-0.2%
Mar 29, 2018	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2018	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%
Jan 25, 2018	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	-0.1%
Dec 25, 2017	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2017	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Oct 26, 2017	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Sep 28, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Aug 24, 2017	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 27, 2017	0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.1%
Jun 29, 2017	0%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.2%
May 25, 2017	0.1%	0%	-0.1%	0.1%
Apr 27, 2017	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%	0.1%
Mar 30, 2017	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Mar 02, 2017	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Jan 26, 2017	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.6%	0.1%
Dec 26, 2016	-0.6%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Nov 24, 2016	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%
Oct 27, 2016	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%	0.1%
Sep 29, 2016	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Aug 25, 2016	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Jul 28, 2016	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
May 26, 2016	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 27, 2016	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Mar 24, 2016	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Feb 25, 2016	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jan 28, 2016	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Dec 24, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Nov 26, 2015	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Oct 29, 2015	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Sep 25, 2015	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 28, 2015	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2015	-0.1%	0%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 26, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
May 29, 2015	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
May 01, 2015	0.4%	0.5%	2.2%	-0.1%