Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Melbourne Institute

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

Actual:

0.1%

Forecast: 0.2%

Previous/Revision:

-0.4%

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The TD-MI Inflation Gauge measures changes in the inflation rate in Australia by tracking price movements of a selected basket of consumer goods and services. It specifically assesses inflationary pressures in the economy, focusing on trends that may indicate future inflationary changes and providing insight into cost-of-living changes for consumers.

Frequency

The TD-MI Inflation Gauge is released monthly, typically on the first Tuesday of each month, and represents a preliminary estimate that offers early insights into inflation trends before more comprehensive data becomes available.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this indicator as it has significant implications for monetary policy and economic forecasts, influencing key financial assets like the Australian dollar (AUD), equities, and interest rate expectations. Higher-than-expected inflation readings may lead to bullish sentiment in the currency market while affecting stock valuations negatively due to potential tightening of monetary policy.

What Is It Derived From?

The Inflation Gauge is derived from price data collected from a range of goods and services across Australian cities, aggregated into a diffusion index that reflects the changes in prices over time. This methodology involves systematic surveys of consumer prices, incorporating both high-frequency data and tender price changes to capture real-time inflationary trends.

Description

The TD-MI Inflation Gauge primarily focuses on monthly movements in inflation, measuring percentage changes compared to the previous month. This month-over-month (MoM) reporting is crucial for recognizing short-term shifts in consumer price dynamics, allowing traders to identify immediate inflation trends that could impact economic policies and market conditions.

Additional Notes

The TD-MI Inflation Gauge is considered a leading economic indicator, as it often foreshadows broader inflationary trends impacting the overall economy. It provides valuable context when compared to other inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and is an essential tool for analyzing inflationary expectations in both domestic and global contexts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 30, 2025	0.1%	0.2%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Jun 02, 2025	-0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	-0.9%
May 05, 2025	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Mar 31, 2025	0.7%	0.3%	-0.2%	0.4%
Mar 03, 2025	-0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.4%
Feb 03, 2025	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.2%
Jan 13, 2025	0.6%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Dec 02, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Nov 04, 2024	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 07, 2024	0.1%	0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Sep 02, 2024	-0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.4%
Aug 05, 2024	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jul 01, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Jun 03, 2024	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
May 06, 2024	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2%
Apr 02, 2024	0.1%	0.5%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Mar 04, 2024	-0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.5%
Feb 05, 2024	0.3%	0.5%	1%	-0.2%
Jan 15, 2024	1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.8%
Dec 04, 2023	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Nov 06, 2023	-0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.3%
Oct 02, 2023	0%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
Sep 04, 2023	0.2%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2023	0.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.3%
Jul 03, 2023	0.1%	0.2%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jun 05, 2023	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%
May 01, 2023	0.2%	-0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Apr 03, 2023	0.3%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.3%
Mar 06, 2023	0.4%	0.6%	0.9%	-0.2%
Feb 06, 2023	0.9%	0.3%	0.2%	0.6%
Jan 16, 2023	0.2%		1%
Dec 05, 2022	1%	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%
Oct 31, 2022	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Oct 03, 2022	0.5%	0.3%	-0.5%	0.2%
Sep 05, 2022	-0.5%	0.7%	1.2%	-1.2%
Aug 01, 2022	1.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.8%
Jul 04, 2022	0.3%	1.1%	1.1%	-0.8%
Jun 06, 2022	1.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	1.2%
May 02, 2022	-0.1%	1%	0.8%	-1.1%
Apr 04, 2022	0.8%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%
Feb 28, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Feb 07, 2022	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Jan 10, 2022	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.2%
Dec 06, 2021	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Nov 01, 2021	0.2%		0.3%
Oct 06, 2021	0.3%		0%
Aug 31, 2021	0%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%
Aug 02, 2021	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Jul 06, 2021	0.4%	0.4%	-0.2%
May 31, 2021	-0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.7%
May 03, 2021	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.2%
Apr 05, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 01, 2021	0.1%		0.2%
Feb 01, 2021	0.2%		0.5%
Jan 11, 2021	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Nov 30, 2020	0.3%		-0.1%
Nov 02, 2020	-0.1%		0.1%
Oct 05, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 31, 2020	0.1%	0.7%	0.9%	-0.6%
Aug 03, 2020	0.9%		0.6%
Jul 06, 2020	0.6%	-1.5%	-1.2%	2.1%
Jun 01, 2020	-1.2%	0.1%	0.2%	-1.3%
May 04, 2020	-0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.2%
Apr 06, 2020	0.2%		-0.1%
Mar 02, 2020	-0.1%		0.3%
Feb 03, 2020	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Jan 13, 2020	0.3%	0.1%	0%	0.2%
Dec 02, 2019	-0.2%	0%	0.1%	-0.2%
Nov 04, 2019	0.1%	0%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2019	0.1%	0%	0%	0.1%
Sep 02, 2019	0%		0.3%
Aug 05, 2019	0.3%		0%
Jul 01, 2019	0%		0%
Jun 03, 2019	0%		0.2%
May 06, 2019	0.2%		0.4%
Apr 01, 2019	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 04, 2019	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Feb 04, 2019	-0.1%		0.4%
Jan 14, 2019	0.4%		0%
Dec 04, 2018	0%		0.1%
Nov 05, 2018	0.1%		0.3%
Oct 01, 2018	0.1%		0.1%
Sep 03, 2018	0.1%		0.1%
Aug 06, 2018	0.1%		0%
Jul 02, 2018	0%		0%
Jun 04, 2018	0%		0.5%
Apr 30, 2018	0.5%		0.1%
Apr 02, 2018	0.1%		-0.1%
Mar 05, 2018	-0.1%		0.3%
Feb 05, 2018	0.3%		0.1%
Jan 15, 2018	0.1%		0.2%
Dec 04, 2017	0.2%		0.3%
Nov 06, 2017	0.3%		0.3%
Oct 02, 2017	0.3%		0.1%
Sep 04, 2017	0.1%		0.1%
Jul 31, 2017	0.1%		0.1%
Jul 03, 2017	0.1%		0%
Jun 05, 2017	0%		0.5%
May 01, 2017	0.5%		0.1%
Apr 03, 2017	0.1%		-0.3%
Mar 06, 2017	-0.3%		0.6%
Feb 06, 2017	0.6%		0.5%
Jan 16, 2017	0.5%		0.1%
Dec 05, 2016	0.1%		0.2%
Oct 31, 2016	0.2%		0.4%
Oct 03, 2016	0.4%		0.2%
Sep 05, 2016	0.2%		-0.3%
Aug 01, 2016	-0.3%		0.6%
Jul 04, 2016	0.6%		-0.2%
Jun 06, 2016	-0.2%		0.1%
May 02, 2016	0.1%		0%
Apr 04, 2016	0%		-0.2%
Feb 29, 2016	-0.2%		0.4%
Jan 31, 2016	0.4%		0.2%
Jan 17, 2016	0.2%		0.1%
Nov 29, 2015	0.1%		0%
Nov 01, 2015	0%		0.3%
Oct 05, 2015	0.3%		0.1%
Aug 31, 2015	0.1%		0.2%
Aug 03, 2015	0.2%		0.1%
Jul 06, 2015	0.1%		0.3%
Jun 01, 2015	0.3%		0.3%
May 04, 2015	0.3%		0.4%