Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: EUROSTAT

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

2.2%

Forecast: 2.2%

Previous/Revision:

2.2%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 1.9%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Inflation Rate Year-over-Year (YoY) Final measures the percentage change in the value of a basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households in the Euro Area over the past year. This indicator primarily assesses price stability and inflationary pressures, focusing on components such as housing, food, energy, and services, which are vital for understanding the purchasing power of consumers and the overall economic environment.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis and provides the final figures for inflation, which are more accurately derived after initial estimates, typically published around the end of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Euro Area Inflation Rate because it is a key determinant of monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). Higher-than-expected inflation can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes, which may strengthen the euro and impact equity markets, while lower readings may signal weaker economic performance, resulting in bearish market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Euro Area Inflation Rate is derived from the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which is calculated based on the prices collected from a representative sample of goods and services across member states. This index employs a weighting system to reflect the consumption patterns of households, and the data is gathered through national statistical offices that follow standardized methodologies set by Eurostat.

Description

The inflation rate is reported as a year-over-year percentage, allowing for a clear understanding of long-term trends and structural changes in consumer prices, effectively eliminating seasonal fluctuations. Importantly, this measure is considered a lagging indicator, reflecting past trends rather than predicting future movements.

Additional Notes

Comparisons to core inflation figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, can provide further context regarding underlying inflation trends. The Euro Area Inflation Rate serves as a critical measure for economists and policymakers alike, linking closely with broader economic conditions and influencing decisions on fiscal and monetary policies across the Eurozone.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually bad for the EUR but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 19, 2025	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Apr 16, 2025	2.2%	2.2%	2.3%
Mar 19, 2025	2.3%	2.4%	2.5%	-0.1%
Feb 24, 2025	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Jan 17, 2025	2.4%	2.4%	2.2%
Dec 18, 2024	2.2%	2.3%	2%	-0.1%
Nov 19, 2024	2%	2%	1.7%
Oct 17, 2024	1.7%	1.8%	2.2%	-0.1%
Sep 18, 2024	2.2%	2.2%	2.6%
Aug 20, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.5%
Jul 17, 2024	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
Jun 18, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.4%
May 17, 2024	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Apr 17, 2024	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%
Mar 18, 2024	2.6%	2.6%	2.8%
Feb 22, 2024	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%
Jan 17, 2024	2.9%	2.9%	2.4%
Dec 19, 2023	2.4%	2.4%	2.9%
Nov 17, 2023	2.9%	2.9%	4.3%
Oct 18, 2023	4.3%	4.3%	5.2%
Sep 19, 2023	5.2%	5.3%	5.3%	-0.1%
Aug 18, 2023	5.3%	5.3%	5.5%
Jul 19, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	6.1%
Jun 16, 2023	6.1%	6.1%	7%
May 17, 2023	7%	7%	6.9%
Apr 19, 2023	6.9%	6.9%	8.5%
Mar 17, 2023	8.5%	8.5%	8.6%
Feb 23, 2023	8.6%	8.6%	9.2%
Jan 18, 2023	9.2%	9.2%	10.1%
Dec 16, 2022	10.1%	10%	10.6%	0.1%
Nov 17, 2022	10.6%	10.7%	9.9%	-0.1%
Oct 19, 2022	9.9%	10%	9.1%	-0.1%
Sep 16, 2022	9.1%	9.1%	8.9%
Aug 18, 2022	8.9%	8.9%	8.6%
Jul 19, 2022	8.6%	8.6%	8.1%
Jun 17, 2022	8.1%	8.1%	7.4%
May 18, 2022	7.4%	7.5%	7.4%	-0.1%
Apr 21, 2022	7.4%	7.5%	5.9%	-0.1%
Mar 17, 2022	5.9%	5.8%	5.1%	0.1%
Feb 23, 2022	5.1%	5.1%	5%
Jan 20, 2022	5%	5%	4.9%
Dec 17, 2021	4.9%	4.9%	4.1%
Nov 17, 2021	4.1%	4.1%	3.4%
Oct 20, 2021	3.4%	3.4%	3%
Sep 17, 2021	3%	3%	2.2%
Aug 18, 2021	2.2%	2.2%	1.9%
Jul 16, 2021	1.9%	1.9%	2%
Jun 17, 2021	2%	2%	1.6%
May 19, 2021	1.6%	1.6%	1.3%
Apr 16, 2021	1.3%	1.3%	0.9%
Mar 17, 2021	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Feb 23, 2021	0.9%	0.9%	-0.3%
Jan 20, 2021	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Dec 17, 2020	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Nov 18, 2020	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Oct 16, 2020	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Sep 17, 2020	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.4%
Aug 19, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Jul 17, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jun 17, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
May 20, 2020	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%	-0.1%
Apr 17, 2020	0.7%	0.7%	1.2%
Mar 18, 2020	1.2%	1.2%	1.4%
Feb 21, 2020	1.4%	1.4%	1.3%
Jan 17, 2020	1.3%	1.3%	1%
Dec 18, 2019	1%	1%	0.7%
Nov 15, 2019	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%
Oct 16, 2019	0.8%	0.9%	1%	-0.1%
Sep 18, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Aug 19, 2019	1%	1.1%	1.3%	-0.1%
Jul 17, 2019	1.3%	1.2%	1.2%	0.1%
Jun 18, 2019	1.2%	1.2%	1.7%
May 17, 2019	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%
Apr 17, 2019	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Mar 15, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%
Feb 22, 2019	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Jan 17, 2019	1.6%	1.6%	1.9%
Dec 17, 2018	1.9%	2%	2.2%	-0.1%
Nov 16, 2018	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Oct 17, 2018	2.1%	2.1%	2%
Sep 17, 2018	2%	2%	2.1%
Aug 17, 2018	2.1%	2.1%	2%
Jul 18, 2018	2%	1.2%	1.9%	0.8%
Jun 15, 2018	1.9%	1.9%	1.3%
May 16, 2018	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%
Apr 18, 2018	1.3%	1.4%	1.1%	-0.1%
Mar 16, 2018	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.1%
Feb 23, 2018	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%
Jan 17, 2018	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Dec 18, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%
Nov 16, 2017	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Oct 17, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Sep 18, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.3%
Aug 17, 2017	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%
Jul 17, 2017	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%
Jun 16, 2017	1.4%	1.4%	1.9%
May 17, 2017	1.9%	1.9%	1.5%
Apr 19, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	2%
Mar 16, 2017	2%	2%	1.8%
Feb 22, 2017	1.8%	1.8%	1.1%
Jan 18, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	0.6%
Dec 16, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Nov 17, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Oct 17, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Sep 15, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Aug 18, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 16, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
May 18, 2016	-0.2%	-0.2%	0%
Apr 14, 2016	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Mar 17, 2016	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.3%
Feb 25, 2016	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jan 19, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 16, 2015	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 16, 2015	0.1%	0%	-0.1%	0.1%
Oct 16, 2015	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
Sep 16, 2015	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 14, 2015	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jul 16, 2015	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Jun 17, 2015	0.3%	0.3%	0%
May 19, 2015	0%	0%	-0.1%