China Retail Sales YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.4%

CNY

Actual:

5.1%

Forecast: 5.5%

Previous/Revision:

5.9%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 4.7%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

China Retail Sales YoY measures the change in the total value of sales at retail outlets over a year, providing insights into consumer spending trends and overall economic activity. This indicator assesses key areas such as household consumption, retail trends, and is considered a national indicator.

Frequency

This data is released monthly, typically on the 15th day of the month following the reporting month, and is presented as a year-over-year percentage change.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor China Retail Sales YoY because it reflects consumer confidence and purchasing power, which are vital for economic growth. Positive results can boost the Chinese yuan and enhance stock market performance, while weaker figures might lead to bearish sentiments in currencies and equities.

What Is It Derived From?

The retail sales figure is derived from a comprehensive survey that includes data from large-scale retailers, small stores, and service industries, representing a range of sectors within the economy. The calculation uses sales volume and value, incorporating adjustments for seasonal changes and inflation to present the data accurately.

Description

China Retail Sales YoY is typically reported as a percentage increase or decrease compared to the same month in the previous year, reflecting the annual change in retail activity. This year-over-year comparison helps to eliminate seasonal fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of long-term consumer behavior and economic health. As a key indicator of consumption trends, it serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting the current state of the economy.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often compared to other economic data such as industrial production and fixed asset investment to provide a complete picture of economic activity. Retail sales act as a coincident indicator, often moving in tandem with overall economic performance and are crucial for assessing domestic demand in China.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 19, 2025	5.1%	5.5%	5.9%	-0.4%
Apr 16, 2025	5.9%	4.2%	4%	1.7%
Mar 17, 2025	4%	4%	3.7%
Jan 17, 2025	3.7%	3.5%	3%	0.2%
Dec 16, 2024	3%	4.6%	4.8%	-1.6%
Nov 15, 2024	4.8%	3.8%	3.2%	1%
Oct 18, 2024	3.2%	2.5%	2.1%	0.7%
Sep 14, 2024	2.1%	2.5%	2.7%	-0.4%
Aug 15, 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2024	2%	3.3%	3.7%	-1.3%
Jun 17, 2024	3.7%	3%	2.3%	0.7%
May 17, 2024	2.3%	3.8%	3.1%	-1.5%
Apr 16, 2024	3.1%	4.5%	5.5%	-1.4%
Mar 18, 2024	5.5%	5.2%	7.4%	0.3%
Jan 17, 2024	7.4%	8%	10.1%	-0.6%
Dec 15, 2023	10.1%	12.5%	7.6%	-2.4%
Nov 15, 2023	7.6%	7%	5.5%	0.6%
Oct 18, 2023	5.5%	4.9%	4.6%	0.6%
Sep 15, 2023	4.6%	3%	2.5%	1.6%
Aug 15, 2023	2.5%	4.5%	3.1%	-2%
Jul 17, 2023	3.1%	3.2%	12.7%	-0.1%
Jun 15, 2023	12.7%	13.6%	18.4%	-0.9%
May 16, 2023	18.4%	21%	10.6%	-2.6%
Apr 18, 2023	10.6%	7.4%	3.5%	3.2%
Mar 15, 2023	3.5%	3.5%	-1.8%
Jan 17, 2023	-1.8%	-8.6%	-5.9%	6.8%
Dec 15, 2022	-5.9%	-3.7%	-0.5%	-2.2%
Nov 15, 2022	-0.5%	1%	2.5%	-1.5%
Oct 24, 2022	2.5%	3.3%	5.4%	-0.8%
Sep 16, 2022	5.4%	3.5%	2.7%	1.9%
Aug 15, 2022	2.7%	5%	3.1%	-2.3%
Jul 15, 2022	3.1%	0%	-6.7%	3.1%
Jun 15, 2022	-6.7%	-7.1%	-11.1%	0.4%
May 16, 2022	-11.1%	-6.1%	-3.5%	-5%
Apr 18, 2022	-3.5%	-1.6%	6.7%	-1.9%
Mar 15, 2022	6.7%	3%	1.7%	3.7%
Jan 17, 2022	1.7%	3.7%	3.9%	-2%
Dec 15, 2021	3.9%	4.6%	4.9%	-0.7%
Nov 15, 2021	4.9%	3.5%	4.4%	1.4%
Oct 18, 2021	4.4%	3.3%	2.5%	1.1%
Sep 15, 2021	2%	7%	8.5%	-5%
Aug 16, 2021	8.5%	11.5%	12.1%	-3%
Jul 15, 2021	12.1%	11%	12.4%	1.1%
Jun 16, 2021	12.4%	13.6%	17.7%	-1.2%
May 17, 2021	17.7%	24.9%	34.2%	-7.2%
Apr 16, 2021	34.2%	28%	33.8%	6.2%
Mar 15, 2021	33.8%	32%	4.6%	1.8%
Jan 18, 2021	4.6%	5.5%	5%	-0.9%
Dec 15, 2020	5%	5.2%	4.3%	-0.2%
Nov 16, 2020	4.3%	4.9%	3.3%	-0.6%
Oct 19, 2020	3.3%	1.8%	0.5%	1.5%
Sep 15, 2020	0.5%	0%	-1.1%	0.5%
Aug 14, 2020	-1.1%	0.1%	-1.8%	-1.2%
Jul 16, 2020	-1.8%	0.3%	-2.8%	-2.1%
Jun 15, 2020	-2.8%	-2%	-7.5%	-0.8%
May 15, 2020	-7.5%	-7%	-15.8%	-0.5%
Apr 17, 2020	-15.8%	-10%	-20.5%	-5.8%
Mar 16, 2020	-20.5%	0.8%	8%	-21.3%
Jan 17, 2020	8%	7.8%	8%	0.2%
Dec 16, 2019	8%	7.6%	7.2%	0.4%
Nov 14, 2019	7.2%	7.9%	7.8%	-0.7%
Oct 18, 2019	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Sep 16, 2019	7.5%	7.9%	7.6%	-0.4%
Aug 14, 2019	7.6%	8.6%	9.8%	-1%
Jul 15, 2019	9.8%	8.5%	8.6%	1.3%
Jun 14, 2019	8.6%	8.1%	7.2%	0.5%
May 15, 2019	7.2%	8.6%	8.7%	-1.4%
Apr 17, 2019	8.7%	8.4%	8.2%	0.3%
Mar 14, 2019	8.2%	8.1%	8.2%	0.1%
Jan 21, 2019	8.2%	8.2%	8.1%
Dec 14, 2018	8.1%	8.8%	8.6%	-0.7%
Nov 14, 2018	8.6%	9.1%	9.2%	-0.5%
Oct 19, 2018	9.2%	9%	9%	0.2%
Sep 14, 2018	9%	8.8%	8.8%	0.2%
Aug 14, 2018	8.8%	9.1%	9%	-0.3%
Jul 16, 2018	9%	8.8%	8.5%	0.2%
Jun 14, 2018	8.5%	9.6%	9.4%	-1.1%
May 15, 2018	9.4%	10%	10.1%	-0.6%
Apr 17, 2018	10.1%	9.7%	9.7%	0.4%
Mar 14, 2018	9.7%	9.8%	9.4%	-0.1%
Jan 18, 2018	9.4%	10.1%	10.2%	-0.7%
Dec 14, 2017	10.2%	10.3%	10%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2017	10%	10.4%	10.3%	-0.4%
Oct 19, 2017	10.3%	10.2%	10.1%	0.1%
Sep 14, 2017	10.1%	10.5%	10.4%	-0.4%
Aug 14, 2017	10.4%	10.8%	11%	-0.4%
Jul 17, 2017	11%	10.6%	10.7%	0.4%
Jun 14, 2017	10.7%	10.6%	10.7%	0.1%
May 15, 2017	10.7%	10.6%	10.9%	0.1%
Apr 17, 2017	10.9%	9.6%	9.5%	1.3%
Mar 14, 2017	9.5%	10.5%	10.9%	-1%
Jan 20, 2017	10.9%	10.7%	10.8%	0.2%
Dec 13, 2016	10.8%	10.1%	10%	0.7%
Nov 14, 2016	10%	10.7%	10.7%	-0.7%
Oct 19, 2016	10.7%	10.6%	10.6%	0.1%
Sep 13, 2016	10.6%	10.3%	10.2%	0.3%
Aug 12, 2016	10.2%	10.5%	10.6%	-0.3%
Jul 15, 2016	10.6%	10%	10%	0.6%
Jun 13, 2016	10%	10.1%	10.1%	-0.1%
May 14, 2016	10.1%	10.5%	10.5%	-0.4%
Apr 15, 2016	10.5%	10.4%	10.2%	0.1%
Mar 12, 2016	10.2%	10.8%	11.1%	-0.6%
Jan 19, 2016	11.1%	11.3%	11.2%	-0.2%
Dec 12, 2015	11.2%	11.1%	11%	0.1%
Nov 11, 2015	11%	10.9%	10.9%	0.1%
Oct 19, 2015	10.9%	10.8%	10.8%	0.1%
Sep 13, 2015	10.8%	10.5%	10.5%	0.3%
Aug 12, 2015	10.5%	10.6%	10.6%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2015	10.6%	10.2%	10.1%	0.4%
Jun 11, 2015	10.1%	10.1%	10%
May 13, 2015	10%	10.5%	10.2%	-0.5%