Australia Retail Sales MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

AUD

Actual:

0.3%

Forecast: 0.4%

Previous/Revision:

0.8%

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.3%

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The Australia Retail Sales MoM measures the monthly change in the total sales of goods and services by retail businesses, indicating consumer spending trends and economic health. It primarily focuses on retail activity, assessing areas such as consumption patterns and overall economic demand. Key indicators include the percentage change from the previous month, with values above zero indicating expansion in retail activity, while values below zero suggest contraction. This is a national indicator, specific to Australia.

Frequency

The Retail Sales MoM report is released monthly, typically on the first week of the month following the reporting period, and it is considered a preliminary estimate subject to potential revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor Retail Sales MoM as it serves as a critical gauge of consumer spending, which directly impacts GDP growth and overall economic performance. Strong retail sales data can lead to bullish sentiments for the Australian dollar (AUD) and related equities, while weaker figures may signal economic slowdown and have bearish effects on markets.

What Is It Derived From?

This indicator is derived from retail survey data collected from a range of retail establishments across Australia, encompassing various sectors like food, clothing, and electronics. The calculation is based on sales revenue figures, employing methodologies that often utilize a mix of current dollar values and adjustments for inflation to correct for seasonal variations.

Description

The Retail Sales MoM is a vital economic indicator that provides insights into consumer behavior in Australia. It consistently reflects changes in retail consumption, which can signal shifts in broader economic trends, as retail spending is typically one of the first areas to show signs of economic fluctuations.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often seen as a coincident economic measure, closely aligned with real-time economic conditions in Australia. It serves as a complement to other indicators, like consumer sentiment surveys and GDP figures, thereby offering a more nuanced view of economic activity.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 02, 2025	0.3%	0.4%	0.8%	-0.1%
Apr 01, 2025	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Mar 04, 2025	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Feb 03, 2025	-0.1%	-0.7%	0.8%	0.6%
Jan 09, 2025	0.8%	1%	0.5%	-0.2%
Dec 02, 2024	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Oct 31, 2024	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	-0.2%
Oct 01, 2024	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.3%
Aug 30, 2024	0%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
Jul 31, 2024	0.5%	0.2%	0.6%	0.3%
Jan 11, 2023	1.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.8%
Jan 11, 2022	7.3%	3.9%	4.9%	3.4%
Oct 02, 2020	-4%	-4.2%	3.2%	0.2%
Sep 04, 2020	3.2%	3.3%	2.7%	-0.1%
Aug 04, 2020	2.7%	2.4%	16.9%	0.3%
Jul 03, 2020	16.9%	16.3%	-17.7%	0.6%
Jun 04, 2020	-17.7%	-17.9%	8.5%	0.2%
Apr 03, 2020	0.5%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.1%
Mar 06, 2020	-0.3%	0%	-0.7%	-0.3%
Feb 06, 2020	-0.5%	-0.2%	1%	-0.3%
Jan 10, 2020	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
Dec 05, 2019	0%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.3%
Nov 04, 2019	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.3%
Oct 04, 2019	0.4%	0.5%	0%	-0.1%
Sep 03, 2019	-0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.3%
Aug 02, 2019	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 04, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 04, 2019	-0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.3%
May 07, 2019	0.3%	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
Apr 03, 2019	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%	0.6%
Mar 07, 2019	0.1%	0.3%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Feb 05, 2019	-0.4%	-0.1%	0.5%	-0.3%
Jan 11, 2019	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Dec 06, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 02, 2018	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Oct 05, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0%	0.1%
Sep 03, 2018	0%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%
Aug 03, 2018	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Jul 04, 2018	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Jun 04, 2018	0.4%	0.2%	0%	0.2%
May 08, 2018	0%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.3%
Apr 04, 2018	0.6%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
Mar 06, 2018	0.1%	0.4%	-0.5%	-0.3%
Feb 06, 2018	-0.5%	-0.2%	1.2%	-0.3%
Jan 11, 2018	1.2%	0.4%	0.5%	0.8%
Dec 05, 2017	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
Nov 03, 2017	0%	0.4%	-0.5%	-0.4%
Oct 05, 2017	-0.6%	0.3%	-0.2%	-0.9%
Sep 07, 2017	0%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.3%
Aug 04, 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Jul 04, 2017	0.6%	0.2%	1%	0.4%
Jun 01, 2017	1%	0.3%	-0.2%	0.7%
May 09, 2017	-0.1%	0.3%	-0.2%	-0.4%
Apr 03, 2017	-0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.4%
Mar 06, 2017	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 06, 2017	-0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.4%
Jan 10, 2017	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.2%
Dec 02, 2016	0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Nov 04, 2016	0.6%	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Oct 05, 2016	0.4%	0.2%	0%	0.2%
Sep 01, 2016	0%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.3%
Aug 04, 2016	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.3%
Jul 05, 2016	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 02, 2016	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%
May 05, 2016	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 04, 2016	0%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.4%
Mar 04, 2016	0.3%	0.4%	0%	-0.1%
Feb 05, 2016	0%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.5%
Jan 08, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%
Dec 04, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Nov 04, 2015	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Oct 02, 2015	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Sep 03, 2015	-0.1%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.5%
Aug 04, 2015	0.7%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
Jul 03, 2015	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Jun 04, 2015	0%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
May 06, 2015	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%	-0.1%