United States PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

Actual:

-0.1%

Forecast: 0.1%

Previous/Revision:

0.2%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Producer Price Index (PPI) Excluding Food, Energy, and Trade measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, specifically excluding the often-volatile categories of food, energy, and trade services. This indicator primarily focuses on core inflation trends by assessing price changes in goods and services produced for sale, offering insights into inflationary pressures that may affect overall economic conditions.

Frequency

This economic event is released on a monthly basis, with the data typically made available on the second Tuesday of each month as a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders and investors closely monitor the PPI, especially core measures like this, as they provide crucial insights into inflation trends which can influence monetary policy decisions. A higher-than-expected figure could signal inflationary pressures that lead to interest rate hikes, impacting the US dollar and equities, while lower readings may have the opposite effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade is calculated based on the selling prices reported by a selection of U.S. producers across various industries. The index utilizes a sample of industries and focuses on the prices that producers charge for their outputs, collecting data through surveys and using established statistical methodologies to ensure reliability and accuracy.

Description

The PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade data is released in both preliminary and final versions, where the preliminary report offers early estimates based on initial responses from producers and is subject to revision, while the final report provides a more accurate representation of price changes based on adjusted data. In general, the Month-over-Month (MoM) comparison is applied to illustrate short-term price changes compared to the previous month, allowing traders to quickly assess immediate market trends.

Additional Notes

The PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade is seen as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation trends, providing valuable insights into potential inflation pressures that could influence broader economic dynamics. Analysts often compare this figure with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to gauge inflationary trends and implications across different sectors of the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	-0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
Apr 11, 2025	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
Mar 13, 2025	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Feb 13, 2025	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Jan 14, 2025	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2%
Dec 12, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Nov 14, 2024	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Oct 11, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Sep 12, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Aug 13, 2024	0.3%	-0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
Jul 12, 2024	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 13, 2024	0%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
May 14, 2024	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Apr 11, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Mar 14, 2024	0.4%	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Feb 16, 2024	0.6%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
Jan 12, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Dec 13, 2023	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 15, 2023	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Oct 11, 2023	0.2%		0.2%