United States Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: University of Michigan

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

4.4%

Forecast: 4.4%

Previous/Revision:

4.1%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 4.6%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final measures consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years, providing insights into future inflationary pressures. This indicator primarily focuses on consumer sentiment regarding price changes and assesses how these expectations influence spending, investment, and wage negotiations, serving as a vital component in inflation forecasting.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, typically providing a final figure at the end of the month, following preliminary estimates that are subject to revision.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this indicator because rising inflation expectations can lead to higher interest rates, impacting asset prices across multiple markets, including currencies, stocks, and bonds. Higher-than-expected inflation expectations are often viewed as bearish for bonds and bullish for commodities, while also having significant implications for central bank policies and economic growth forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final is derived from a telephone survey of consumers conducted by the University of Michigan. The survey focuses on a representative sample of U.S. households, asking them about their expectations of price changes for various consumer goods over the next five years, and the results are reported as a diffuse index.

Description

Preliminary data reflects initial consumer sentiment based on early responses, while the final report integrates additional responses and methodological refinements, providing a more accurate depiction of consumer expectations. The monthly nature of this report allows for timely insights into shifts in inflation perceptions, aiding traders and policymakers in their decision-making processes.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a leading economic measure, helping analysts anticipate future consumer spending behavior which may influence overall economic conditions. It is often compared with other inflation statistics and reports to gauge consistency and overall market sentiment regarding inflation trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation expectations is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to lower expected returns.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 25, 2025	4.4%	4.4%	4.1%
Mar 28, 2025	4.1%	3.9%	3.5%	0.2%
Feb 21, 2025	3.5%	3.3%	3.2%	0.2%
Jan 24, 2025	3.2%	3.3%	3%	-0.1%
Dec 20, 2024	3%	3.1%	3.2%	-0.1%
Nov 22, 2024	3.2%	3.1%	3%	0.1%
Oct 25, 2024	3%	3%	3.1%
Sep 27, 2024	3.1%	3.1%	3%
Aug 30, 2024	3%	3%	3%
Jul 26, 2024	3%	2.9%	3%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2024	3%	3.1%	3%	-0.1%
May 24, 2024	3%	3.1%	3%	-0.1%
Apr 26, 2024	3%	3%	2.8%
Mar 28, 2024	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2024	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Feb 02, 2024	2.9%	2.8%	2.9%	0.1%
Dec 22, 2023	2.9%	2.8%	3.2%	0.1%
Nov 22, 2023	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%
Oct 27, 2023	3%	3%	2.8%
Sep 29, 2023	2.8%	2.7%	3%	0.1%
Aug 25, 2023	3%	2.9%	3%	0.1%
Jul 28, 2023	3%	3.1%	3%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2023	3%	3%	3.1%
May 26, 2023	3.1%	3.2%	3%	-0.1%
Apr 28, 2023	3%	2.9%	2.9%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2023	2.9%	2.8%	2.9%	0.1%
Feb 24, 2023	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Jan 27, 2023	2.9%	3%	2.9%	-0.1%
Dec 23, 2022	2.9%	3%	3%	-0.1%
Nov 23, 2022	3%	3%	2.9%
Oct 28, 2022	2.9%	2.9%	2.7%
Sep 30, 2022	2.7%	2.8%	2.9%	-0.1%
Aug 26, 2022	2.9%	3%	2.9%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2022	2.9%	2.8%	3.1%	0.1%
Jun 24, 2022	3.1%	3.3%	3%	-0.2%
May 27, 2022	3%	3%	3%
Apr 29, 2022	3%	3%	3%
Mar 25, 2022	3%	3%	3%
Feb 25, 2022	3%	3.1%	3.1%	-0.1%
Jan 28, 2022	3.1%	3.1%	2.9%
Nov 24, 2021	3%	2.9%	2.9%	0.1%
Oct 29, 2021	2.9%	2.8%	3%	0.1%
Oct 01, 2021	3%	2.9%	2.9%	0.1%
Aug 27, 2021	2.9%	3%	2.8%	-0.1%
Jul 30, 2021	2.8%	2.9%	2.8%	-0.1%
Jun 25, 2021	2.8%	2.8%	3%
May 28, 2021	3%	3.1%	2.7%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2021	2.7%	2.7%	2.8%
Mar 26, 2021	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%	0.1%
Feb 26, 2021	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Jan 29, 2021	2.7%	2.7%	2.5%
Dec 23, 2020	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Nov 25, 2020	2.6%	2.6%	2.4%
Oct 30, 2020	2.4%	2.4%	2.7%
Oct 02, 2020	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%	0.1%
Aug 28, 2020	2.7%	2.7%	2.6%
Jul 31, 2020	2.6%	2.7%	2.5%	-0.1%
Jun 26, 2020	2.5%	2.6%	2.7%	-0.1%
May 29, 2020	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	0.1%
Apr 24, 2020	2.5%	2.5%	2.3%
Mar 27, 2020	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Feb 28, 2020	2.3%	2.3%	2.5%
Jan 31, 2020	2.5%	2.5%	2.2%
Dec 20, 2019	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%	-0.1%
Nov 22, 2019	2.5%	2.4%	2.3%	0.1%
Oct 25, 2019	2.3%	2.2%	2.4%	0.1%
Sep 27, 2019	2.4%	2.3%	2.6%	0.1%
Aug 30, 2019	2.6%	2.6%	2.5%
Aug 02, 2019	2.5%	2.6%	2.3%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2019	2.3%	2.2%	2.6%	0.1%
May 31, 2019	2.6%	2.6%	2.3%
Apr 26, 2019	2.3%	2.3%	2.5%
Mar 29, 2019	2.5%	2.5%	2.3%
Mar 01, 2019	2.3%	2.3%	2.6%
Feb 01, 2019	2.6%	2.6%	2.5%
Dec 21, 2018	2.5%	2.4%	2.6%	0.1%
Nov 21, 2018	2.6%	2.6%	2.4%
Oct 26, 2018	2.4%		2.5%
Sep 28, 2018	2.5%		2.6%
Aug 31, 2018	2.6%	2.5%	2.4%	0.1%
Jul 27, 2018	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%
Jun 29, 2018	2.6%	2.6%	2.5%
May 25, 2018	2.5%		2.5%
Apr 27, 2018	2.5%		2.5%
Mar 29, 2018	2.5%		2.5%
Mar 02, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Feb 02, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.4%
Dec 22, 2017	2.4%	2.5%	2.4%	-0.1%
Nov 22, 2017	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.1%
Oct 27, 2017	2.5%	2.4%	2.5%	0.1%
Sep 29, 2017	2.5%	2.6%	2.5%	-0.1%
Sep 01, 2017	2.5%		2.6%
Jul 28, 2017	2.6%	2.6%	2.5%
Jun 30, 2017	2.5%	2.6%	2.4%	-0.1%
May 26, 2017	2.4%	2.3%	2.4%	0.1%
Apr 28, 2017	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%