Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

EUR

Actual:

Forecast: 56

Previous/Revision:

58.2

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector within the eurozone, focusing on various aspects such as production output, employment levels, and supplier delivery times. Key indicators include a PMI reading above 50 indicating expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction, making it a critical national indicator for assessing the manufacturing landscape.

Frequency

The PMI is released on a monthly basis, with the flash estimate typically available around the middle of the month, serving as a preliminary snapshot of economic activity before more comprehensive final reports are published.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the PMI due to its significant implications for the Euro’s valuation against other currencies, stock market performance, and overall economic forecasts. Stronger-than-expected results can boost investor confidence, positively impacting currency value and equities, while weaker results may have the opposite effect, prompting caution in markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from a monthly survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with participants providing insights on new orders, output, employment, supplier deliveries, and stocks of purchases. This data is aggregated into a diffusion index, where responses are weighted to reflect the relative importance of different sectors within the manufacturing industry.

Description

The Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash provides a timely indicator of economic activity, highlighting short-term fluctuations in manufacturing output. Preliminary reports can prompt immediate market responses as they give early insight into economic trends, while final reports based on more comprehensive data may lead to adjustments in investment positions.

Additional Notes

The Manufacturing PMI is considered a leading economic indicator, often providing early signals about economic trends before they are reflected in broader economic datasets. It serves as a vital reference point not only for the eurozone but also for global manufacturing trends, influencing perceptions of the euro area’s economic strength in relation to other regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 24, 2022	57	56	58.2	1
Feb 21, 2022	58.4	58.7	58.7	-0.3
Jan 24, 2022	59	57.5	58	1.5
Dec 16, 2021	58	57.8	58.4	0.2
Nov 23, 2021	58.6	57.3	58.3	1.3
Oct 22, 2021	58.5	57	58.6	1.5
Sep 23, 2021	58.7	60.3	61.4	-1.6
Aug 23, 2021	61.5	62	62.8	-0.5
Jul 23, 2021	62.6	62.5	63.4	0.1
Jun 23, 2021	63.1	62.1	63.1	1
May 21, 2021	62.8	62.5	62.9	0.3
Apr 23, 2021	63.3	62	62.5	1.3
Mar 24, 2021	62.4	57.7	57.9	4.7
Feb 19, 2021	57.7	54.3	54.8	3.4
Jan 22, 2021	54.7	54.5	55.2	0.2
Dec 16, 2020	55.5	53	53.8	2.5
Nov 23, 2020	53.6	53.1	54.8	0.5
Oct 23, 2020	54.4	53.1	53.7	1.3
Sep 23, 2020	53.7	51.9	51.7	1.8
Aug 21, 2020	51.7	52.9	51.8	-1.2
Jul 24, 2020	51.1	50	47.4	1.1
Jun 23, 2020	46.9	44.5	39.4	2.4
May 21, 2020	39.5	38	33.4	1.5
Apr 23, 2020	33.6	39.2	44.5	-5.6
Mar 24, 2020	44.8	39	49.2	5.8
Feb 21, 2020	49.1	49.1	47.9
Jan 24, 2020	47.8	46.8	46.3	1
Dec 16, 2019	45.9	47.3	46.9	-1.4
Nov 22, 2019	46.6	46.4	45.9	0.2
Oct 24, 2019	45.7	46	45.7	-0.3
Sep 23, 2019	45.6	45.6	47
Aug 22, 2019	47	46.2	46.5	0.8
Jul 24, 2019	46.4	47.6	47.6	-1.2
Jun 21, 2019	47.8	47.8	47.7
May 23, 2019	47.7	48.1	47.9	-0.4
Apr 18, 2019	47.8	47.9	47.5	-0.1
Mar 22, 2019	47.6	47.6	49.3
Feb 21, 2019	49.2	50.3	50.5	-1.1
Jan 24, 2019	50.5	50.5	51.4
Dec 14, 2018	51.4	51.9	51.8	-0.5
Nov 23, 2018	51.5	52	52	-0.5
Oct 24, 2018	52.1	53	53.2	-0.9
Sep 21, 2018	53.3	54.4	54.6	-1.1
Aug 23, 2018	54.6	55	55.1	-0.4
Jul 24, 2018	55.1	54.6	54.9	0.5
Jun 22, 2018	55	55.5	55.5	-0.5
May 23, 2018	55.5	56	56.2	-0.5
Apr 23, 2018	56	56.6	56.6	-0.6
Mar 22, 2018	56.6	56.6	58.6
Feb 21, 2018	58.5	58.5	59.6
Jan 24, 2018	59.6	59.6	60.6
Dec 14, 2017	60.6	60.6	60.1
Nov 23, 2017	60	60	58.5
Oct 24, 2017	58.6	58.6	58.6
Sep 22, 2017	58.2	57.1	57.4	1.1
Aug 23, 2017	57.4	56.3	56.6	1.1
Jul 24, 2017	56.8	57.2	57.4	-0.4
Jun 23, 2017	57.3	56.8	57	0.5
May 23, 2017	57	56.5	56.7	0.5
Apr 21, 2017	56.8	56	56.2	0.8
Mar 24, 2017	56.2	55.3	55.4	0.9
Feb 21, 2017	55.5	55	55.2	0.5
Jan 24, 2017	55.1	54.8	54.9	0.3
Dec 15, 2016	54.9	53.7	53.7	1.2
Nov 23, 2016	53.7	53.3	53.5	0.4
Oct 24, 2016	53.3	52.6	52.6	0.7
Sep 23, 2016	52.6	51.5	51.7	1.1
Aug 23, 2016	51.8	52	52	-0.2
Jul 22, 2016	51.9	52	52.8	-0.1
Jun 23, 2016	52.6	51.3	51.5	1.3
May 23, 2016	51.5	51.9	51.7	-0.4
Apr 22, 2016	51.5	51.8	51.6	-0.3
Mar 22, 2016	51.4	51.3	51.2	0.1
Feb 22, 2016	51	52	52.3	-1
Jan 22, 2016	52.3	53	53.2	-0.7
Dec 16, 2015	53.1	52.8	52.8	0.3
Nov 23, 2015	52.8	52.3	52.3	0.5
Oct 23, 2015	52	51.7	52	0.3
Sep 23, 2015	52	52	52.3
Aug 21, 2015	52.4	52.2	52.4	0.2
Jul 24, 2015	52.2	52.5	52.5	-0.3
Jun 23, 2015	52.5	52.2	52.2	0.3
May 21, 2015	52.3	52	52	0.3