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China CNY

China Loan Prime Rate 5Y

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.5%
Forecast: 3.5%
Previous/Revision:
3.6%
Period: May

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 3.5%
Period: Jun
What Does It Measure?
The China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 5 years specifically measures the interest rate at which banks in China lend to their most creditworthy clients, focusing on the median interest rates quoted by a panel of banks. It assesses the cost of borrowing over a five-year period and serves as an essential benchmark for various financing products in the country.
Frequency
The 5-year LPR is published on a monthly basis, typically on the 20th of each month, and can be a preliminary estimate subject to revisions.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders are keenly interested in the 5-year LPR since it directly influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, thereby impacting economic activity. Changes in the LPR can lead to movements in key markets such as currencies and stocks, with lower rates generally being bullish for economic growth and financial markets, while higher rates may have bearish implications.
What Is It Derived From?
The 5-year LPR is derived from the interest rates that 18 designated banks (including both state-owned and private banks) provide for their loan products based on market conditions, including demand for loans, credit risks, and central bank policy. It is calculated utilizing a weighted average method, where banks quote their respective lending rates, and the final figure reflects the median of these rates.
Description
The China 5-year LPR serves as a critical indicator of monetary policy direction and lending conditions in the Chinese economy. It plays a significant role in shaping interest rates for mortgages, personal loans, and corporate borrowing, hence influencing overall economic activity and consumer confidence, while also forming an essential part of the transmission mechanism for monetary policy.
Additional Notes
The 5-year LPR is considered a leading indicator of economic conditions as it reflects current lending conditions and expectations about future interest rates. As a key benchmark in the financial system, it relates closely to broader economic trends such as consumer spending and investment, and is monitored in conjunction with other economic indicators globally to analyze monetary policy effectiveness.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.65%
3.85%
-0.05%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.85%
3.95%
3.95%
-0.1%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
3.95%
4.05%
4.2%
-0.1%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.05%
4.2%
0.15%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.35%
4.45%
-0.05%
4.45%
4.45%
4.45%
4.45%
4.45%
4.45%
4.45%
4.6%
4.6%
-0.15%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.65%
4.65%
-0.05%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.5%
4.65%
0.15%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.65%
4.7%
4.75%
-0.05%
4.75%
4.65%
4.75%
0.1%
4.75%
4.65%
4.8%
0.1%
4.8%
4.7%
4.8%
0.1%
4.8%
4.7%
4.8%
0.1%
4.8%
4.8%
4.85%
4.85%
4.75%
4.85%
0.1%
4.85%
4.85%