United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-3.3

USD

Actual:

51.2

Forecast: 54.5

Previous/Revision:

55.1

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector in the United States, specifically focusing on services such as retail, finance, and healthcare. It assesses critical components like business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is released monthly, typically on the third business day of the month, and it is considered a preliminary estimate that may be revised in later reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI because it serves as a crucial indicator of economic conditions and sentiment in the services sector, influencing asset prices in currencies (like the USD), stocks, and bonds. A higher-than-expected PMI can positively impact markets by suggesting economic growth, while weaker readings may lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 non-manufacturing firms across various industries, with respondents evaluating their business conditions and providing insights based on a diffusion index model. The final PMI number reflects a weighted score based on the survey responses, utilizing established industry standards for consistency and accuracy.

Description

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is published as a diffusion index that combines various factors such as business activity, new orders, and employment into a single figure. The preliminary reporting often garners more significant market attention due to its timely release, whereas the final readings provide a refined understanding of the services sector post-analysis, allowing for adjustments in trader expectations and strategies.

Additional Notes

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is typically seen as a coincident indicator, as it reflects current industrial conditions but can also provide insights into future economic trends. It is often compared to the Manufacturing PMI, and together, they create a more comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy, influencing expectations surrounding consumer spending and overall economic growth.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 05, 2023	51.2	54.5	55.1	-3.3
Mar 03, 2023	55.1	54.5	55.2	0.6
Feb 03, 2023	55.2	50.4	49.2	4.8
Jan 06, 2023	49.6	55	56.5	-5.4
Dec 05, 2022	56.5	53.3	54.4	3.2
Nov 03, 2022	54.4	55.5	56.7	-1.1
Oct 05, 2022	56.7	56	56.9	0.7
Sep 06, 2022	56.9	55.1	56.7	1.8
Aug 03, 2022	56.7	53.5	55.3	3.2
Jul 06, 2022	55.3	54.3	55.9	1
Jun 03, 2022	55.9	56.4	57.1	-0.5
May 04, 2022	57.1	58.5	58.3	-1.4
Apr 05, 2022	58.3	58.4	56.5	-0.1
Mar 03, 2022	56.5	61	59.9	-4.5
Feb 03, 2022	59.9	59.5	62.3	0.4
Jan 06, 2022	62	66.9	69.1	-4.9
Dec 03, 2021	69.1	65	66.7	4.1
Nov 03, 2021	66.7	62	61.9	4.7
Oct 05, 2021	61.9	60	61.7	1.9
Sep 03, 2021	61.7	61.5	64.1	0.2
Aug 04, 2021	64.1	60.5	60.1	3.6
Jul 06, 2021	60.1	63.5	64	-3.4
Jun 03, 2021	64	63	62.7	1
May 05, 2021	62.7	64.3	63.7	-1.6
Apr 05, 2021	63.7	59	55.3	4.7
Mar 03, 2021	55.3	58.7	58.7	-3.4
Feb 03, 2021	58.7	56.8	57.7	1.9
Jan 07, 2021	57.2	54.6	55.9	2.6
Dec 03, 2020	55.9	56	56.6	-0.1
Nov 04, 2020	56.6	57.5	57.8	-0.9
Oct 05, 2020	57.8	56.3	56.9	1.5
Sep 03, 2020	56.9	57	58.1	-0.1
Aug 05, 2020	58.1	55	57.1	3.1
Jul 06, 2020	57.1	50.1	45.4	7
Jun 03, 2020	45.4	44	41.8	1.4
May 05, 2020	41.8	32	52.5	9.8
Apr 03, 2020	52.5	44	57.3	8.5
Mar 04, 2020	57.3	54.9	55.5	2.4
Feb 05, 2020	55.5	55	54.9	0.5
Jan 07, 2020	55	54.5	53.9	0.5
Dec 04, 2019	53.9	54.5	54.7	-0.6
Nov 05, 2019	54.7	53.5	52.6	1.2
Oct 03, 2019	52.6	55	56.4	-2.4
Sep 05, 2019	56.4	54	53.7	2.4
Aug 05, 2019	53.7	55.5	55.1	-1.8
Jul 03, 2019	55.1	55.9	56.9	-0.8
Jun 05, 2019	56.9	55.5	55.5	1.4
May 03, 2019	55.5	57	56.1	-1.5
Apr 03, 2019	56.1	58	59.7	-1.9
Mar 05, 2019	59.7	57.3	56.7	2.4
Feb 05, 2019	56.7	57.2	58	-0.5
Jan 07, 2019	57.6	59	60.7	-1.4
Dec 06, 2018	60.7	59.2	60.3	1.5
Nov 05, 2018	60.3	59.3	61.6	1
Oct 03, 2018	61.6	58	58.5	3.6
Sep 06, 2018	58.5	56.8	55.7	1.7
Aug 03, 2018	55.7	58.6	59.1	-2.9
Jul 05, 2018	59.1	58.3	58.6	0.8
Jun 05, 2018	58.6	57.5	56.8	1.1
May 03, 2018	56.8	58.1	58.8	-1.3
Apr 04, 2018	58.8	59	59.5	-0.2
Mar 05, 2018	59.5	59	59.9	0.5
Feb 05, 2018	59.9	56.5	56	3.4
Jan 05, 2018	55.9	57.6	57.4	-1.7
Dec 05, 2017	57.4	59	60.1	-1.6
Nov 03, 2017	60.1	58.5	59.8	1.6
Oct 04, 2017	59.8	55.5	55.3	4.3
Sep 06, 2017	55.3	55.4	53.9	-0.1
Aug 03, 2017	53.9	57	57.4	-3.1
Jul 06, 2017	57.4	56.5	56.9	0.9
Jun 05, 2017	56.9	57	57.5	-0.1
May 03, 2017	57.5	55.8	55.2	1.7
Apr 05, 2017	55.2	57	57.6	-1.8
Mar 03, 2017	57.6	56.5	56.5	1.1
Feb 03, 2017	56.5	57	56.6	-0.5
Jan 05, 2017	57.2	57.6	57.2	-0.4
Dec 05, 2016	57.2	55.4	54.8	1.8
Nov 03, 2016	54.8	56	57.1	-1.2
Oct 05, 2016	57.1	53	51.4	4.1
Sep 06, 2016	51.4	55	55.5	-3.6
Aug 03, 2016	55.5	56	56.5	-0.5
Jul 06, 2016	56.5	53.3	52.9	3.2
Jun 03, 2016	52.9	55.5	55.7	-2.6
May 04, 2016	55.7	54.7	54.5	1
Apr 05, 2016	54.5	54	53.4	0.5
Mar 03, 2016	53.4	53.2	53.5	0.2
Feb 03, 2016	53.5	55.1	55.8	-1.6
Jan 06, 2016	55.3	56	55.9	-0.7
Dec 03, 2015	55.9	58	59.1	-2.1
Nov 04, 2015	59.1	56.5	56.9	2.6
Oct 05, 2015	56.9	58	59	-1.1
Sep 03, 2015	59	58.1	60.3	0.9
Aug 05, 2015	60.3	56.2	56	4.1
Jul 06, 2015	56	56.2	55.7	-0.2
Jun 03, 2015	55.7	57	57.8	-1.3
May 05, 2015	57.8	56.5	56.5	1.3