United States CPI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.085

USD

Actual:

320.795

Forecast: 320.88

Previous/Revision:

319.799

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 322.1

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, encompassing key areas such as housing, transportation, food, and clothing. It serves as a primary indicator of inflation, with a CPI value above 100 indicating inflation above the base year and below indicating deflation.

Frequency

The CPI is released monthly and typically provides a preliminary estimate on a specific day of the month, followed by a final figure that confirms earlier estimates, often occurring around the second week of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the CPI because it plays a crucial role in shaping monetary policy and has significant implications for the financial markets. Rising CPI figures typically suggest inflationary pressures, which can lead to an appreciation of nominal interest rates, affecting currencies such as the USD, and can influence stock market behavior positively or negatively depending on the market's inflation outlook.

What Is It Derived From?

The CPI is derived from a comprehensive survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics involving thousands of prices for a representative assortment of goods and services collected from various retailers and service providers across urban areas. The index uses a weighted average based on consumer spending patterns, employing a base year for comparison and accounting for seasonal adjustments.

Description

The CPI includes both preliminary and final reports, where the preliminary data reflects early estimates and is subject to revisions, while the final data provides a more accurate picture of price changes but is released later. The chosen reporting method is Year-over-Year (YoY), which mitigates seasonality, allowing traders to interpret longer-term trends and structural shifts in prices across the consumer sector.

Additional Notes

The CPI is considered a lagging economic indicator, as it reflects past price changes and broader economic conditions. It interacts closely with other economic indicators, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and employment reports, and can indicate future trends in consumer spending and overall economic health.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 13, 2025	320.795	320.88	319.799	-0.085
Apr 10, 2025	319.799	320.17	319.082	-0.371
Mar 12, 2025	319.082	319.22	317.67	-0.138
Feb 12, 2025	317.67	317.46	315.61	0.21
Jan 15, 2025	315.61	315.61	315.49
Dec 11, 2024	315.49	315.34	315.66	0.15
Nov 13, 2024	315.664	315.59	315.3	0.074
Oct 10, 2024	315.3	314.86	314.8	0.44
Sep 11, 2024	314.8	314.98	314.54	-0.18
Aug 14, 2024	314.54	314.77	314.18	-0.23
Jul 11, 2024	314.18	314.63	314.07	-0.45
Jun 12, 2024	314.07	314.37	313.55	-0.3
May 15, 2024	313.55	313.76	312.33	-0.21
Apr 10, 2024	312.33	312.098	310.33	0.232
Mar 12, 2024	310.326	310.3	308.417	0.026
Feb 13, 2024	308.417	307.986	306.746	0.431
Jan 11, 2024	306.746	306.61	307.051	0.136
Dec 12, 2023	307.051	306.9	307.671	0.151
Nov 14, 2023	307.671	307.857	307.789	-0.186
Oct 12, 2023	307.789	307.386	307.026	0.403
Sep 13, 2023	307.026	306.976	305.691	0.05
Aug 10, 2023	305.691	305.84	305.109	-0.149
Jul 12, 2023	305.109	305.219	304.127	-0.11
Jun 13, 2023	304.127	304.063	303.363	0.064
May 10, 2023	303.363	303.532	301.836	-0.169
Apr 12, 2023	301.836	302.254	300.84	-0.418
Mar 14, 2023	300.84	300.86	299.17	-0.02
Feb 14, 2023	299.17	298.66	296.797	0.51
Jan 12, 2023	296.797	296.701	297.711	0.096
Dec 13, 2022	297.711	298.045	298.012	-0.334
Nov 10, 2022	298.012	298.583	296.808	-0.571
Oct 13, 2022	296.808	296.43	296.171	0.378
Sep 13, 2022	296.171	295.53	296.276	0.641
Aug 10, 2022	296.276	296.669	296.311	-0.393
Jul 13, 2022	296.311	295.7	292.296	0.611
Jun 10, 2022	292.296	291.661	289.109	0.635
May 11, 2022	289.109	288.654	287.504	0.455
Apr 12, 2022	287.504	287.41	283.716	0.094
Mar 10, 2022	283.716	283.663	281.148	0.053
Feb 10, 2022	281.148	280.389	278.802	0.759
Jan 12, 2022	278.802	278.738	277.948	0.064
Dec 10, 2021	277.948	278.114	276.589	-0.166
Nov 10, 2021	276.589	275.764	274.31	0.825
Oct 13, 2021	274.31	274.144	273.567	0.166
Sep 14, 2021	273.567	273.788	273.003	-0.221
Aug 11, 2021	273.003	272.866	271.696	0.137
Jul 13, 2021	271.696	270.638	269.195	1.058
Jun 10, 2021	269.195	268.473	267.054	0.722
May 12, 2021	267.054	265.584	264.877	1.47
Apr 13, 2021	264.877	264.69	263.014	0.187
Mar 10, 2021	263.014	263.082	261.582	-0.068
Feb 10, 2021	261.582	261.79	260.474	-0.208
Jan 13, 2021	260.474	260.428	260.229	0.046