United States PCE Price Index MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

Forecast: 0%

Previous/Revision:

0.4%

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.1%

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services in the United States, specifically reflecting inflation. It primarily focuses on the purchasing behavior of households and assesses how price fluctuations impact consumer spending.

Frequency

The PCE Price Index is released on a monthly basis, and the figures published are initial estimates subject to revision, typically announced during the last week of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the PCE Price Index as it serves as a key gauge of inflation in the U.S. economy, impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, which can influence asset prices including the U.S. dollar, stocks, and bonds.

What Is It Derived From?

The PCE Price Index is derived from a comprehensive survey of consumer spending, which includes data collected from various sources including business surveys and government reports. It measures the prices of a wide range of goods and services, incorporating substitutions under the formula for calculating the index, which is based on a chained index methodology that accounts for changes in consumer behavior.

Description

Preliminary reports of the PCE Price Index reflect initial statistical estimates based on early data, which may be revised in final reports as more comprehensive information becomes available. Traders often react strongly to these preliminary figures because they are timely indicators of inflation trends, while the final reports may lead to adjustments in trading position as they provide a more accurate analysis.

Additional Notes

The PCE Price Index is considered a coincident indicator that reflects current inflation trends and is closely monitored alongside other inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is relevant in broader economic discussions as it relates to trends in consumer confidence, spending behavior, and overall economic growth.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	0%	0%	0.4%
Mar 28, 2025	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Feb 28, 2025	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Jan 31, 2025	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Dec 20, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Nov 27, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Oct 31, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Sep 27, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Aug 30, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 26, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Jun 28, 2024	0%	0%	0.3%
May 31, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Apr 26, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Mar 29, 2024	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 29, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jan 26, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Dec 22, 2023	-0.1%	0%	0%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	0%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.1%
Oct 27, 2023	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Sep 29, 2023	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jul 28, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2023	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
May 26, 2023	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 28, 2023	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.2%
Mar 31, 2023	0.3%	0.5%	0.6%	-0.2%
Feb 24, 2023	0.6%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
Jan 27, 2023	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 23, 2022	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
Dec 01, 2022	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Oct 28, 2022	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2022	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Aug 26, 2022	-0.1%	-0.1%	1%
Jul 29, 2022	1%	0.9%	0.6%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	0.6%	0.9%	0.2%	-0.3%
May 27, 2022	0.2%	0.3%	0.9%	-0.1%
Apr 29, 2022	0.9%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Mar 31, 2022	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	-0.2%
Feb 25, 2022	0.6%	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%
Jan 28, 2022	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%
Dec 23, 2021	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Nov 24, 2021	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%
Oct 29, 2021	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.2%
Oct 01, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Aug 27, 2021	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Jul 30, 2021	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%	-0.3%
Jun 25, 2021	0.4%	0.8%	0.6%	-0.4%
May 28, 2021	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2021	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
Mar 26, 2021	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.2%
Feb 26, 2021	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.2%
Jan 29, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0%	0.1%
Dec 23, 2020	0%	0.2%	0%	-0.2%
Nov 25, 2020	0%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%
Oct 30, 2020	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Oct 01, 2020	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Aug 28, 2020	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jun 26, 2020	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.5%	0.2%
May 29, 2020	-0.5%	-0.7%	-0.2%	0.2%
Apr 30, 2020	-0.3%	-0.7%	0.1%	0.4%
Feb 28, 2020	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jan 31, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Dec 20, 2019	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Nov 27, 2019	0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	0%	0.3%	0%	-0.3%
Sep 27, 2019	0%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.3%
Aug 30, 2019	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 30, 2019	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2%
Jun 28, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
May 31, 2019	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
Apr 29, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.1%
Apr 29, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar 29, 2019	-0.1%	0%	0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2019	0.1%	0%	0%	0.1%
Dec 21, 2018	0.1%	0%	0.2%	0.1%
Nov 29, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 29, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 28, 2018	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Jun 29, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 31, 2018	0.2%	0%	0%	0.2%
Apr 30, 2018	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Mar 29, 2018	0.2%		0.4%
Mar 01, 2018	0.4%		0.1%
Jan 29, 2018	0.1%		0.2%
Dec 22, 2017	0.2%		0.1%
Nov 30, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
Oct 30, 2017	0.4%		0.2%
Sep 29, 2017	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2017	0.1%		0%
Aug 01, 2017	0%		0%
Jun 30, 2017	-0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
May 30, 2017	0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%
May 01, 2017	-0.2%		0.1%
Mar 31, 2017	0.1%		0.4%
Mar 01, 2017	0.4%		0.2%
Jan 30, 2017	0.2%		0.1%
Dec 22, 2016	0%		0.3%
Nov 30, 2016	0.2%		0.2%
Oct 31, 2016	0.2%		0.2%
Sep 30, 2016	0.1%		0%
Aug 29, 2016	0%		0.1%
Aug 02, 2016	0.1%		0.2%
Jun 29, 2016	0.2%		0.3%
May 31, 2016	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 29, 2016	0.1%		-0.1%
Mar 28, 2016	-0.1%		0.1%
Feb 26, 2016	0.1%		-0.1%
Feb 01, 2016	-0.1%		0.1%
Dec 23, 2015	0%		0.1%
Nov 25, 2015	0.1%		-0.1%
Oct 30, 2015	-0.1%		0%
Sep 28, 2015	0%		0.1%
Aug 28, 2015	0.1%		0.2%
Aug 03, 2015	0.2%		0.3%
Jun 25, 2015	0.3%		0%
Jun 01, 2015	0%		0.2%