France Pentecost Monday

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2020

What Does It Measure?

Pentecost Monday, a public holiday in France, does not measure economic activity directly; however, it serves as an indicator of consumer behavior and employment within various sectors. The day typically reflects reduced business operations in retail, transportation, and services, allowing for analyses of spending patterns and overall economic health.

Frequency

The observance of Pentecost Monday occurs annually, on the day after Pentecost, which is celebrated 50 days after Easter, making its date variable each year. The holiday's significance is often reflected in the quarterly economic reports that assess consumer activity during public holidays.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay attention to Pentecost Monday as its effects on consumer spending can influence economic indicators such as retail sales and service sector performance. A decrease in business activity typically observed on this holiday may signal broader trends in consumer sentiment and seasonal adjustments, impacting equities and currencies.

What Is It Derived From?

The implications of Pentecost Monday are derived from historical consumer spending data, survey results related to consumer behavior during holidays, and attendance patterns in the retail and service sectors. Analyzing past trends allows economists and traders to forecast potential impacts on sales and revenues during similar holiday periods.

Description

While Pentecost Monday itself does not have quantitative data reporting like traditional economic indicators, it is associated with holiday spending patterns that are reflected in subsequent economic analysis. The limited business activities on this day often require adjustments in forecasts by economists and market analysts, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on consumer interaction.

Additional Notes

As a public holiday, Pentecost Monday is categorized as a lagging economic indicator that follows consumer behavior trends rather than predicting them. Its relevance becomes increasingly significant when correlated with broader economic trends, such as seasonal increases in holiday spending or tourism-related activities across France.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected spending during the holiday period can be considered bullish for the Euro, bullish for stocks, as it suggests consumer confidence and robust economic activity. Conversely, lower spending data compared to forecasts may signal bearish sentiment for the Euro and stocks, indicating economic weakness during this traditionally significant time.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise