United States ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

USD-9.8

Actual:

52.2

Forecast: 62

Previous/Revision:

62.6

Period: Apr 2023

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index measures the level of new orders placed with non-manufacturing suppliers and assesses the demand for services in the U.S. economy, which includes sectors such as finance, healthcare, and retail. This index serves as an essential indicator of economic activity in the services sector, key areas involved include production, employment, and inflation, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index is released monthly on the first business day of the month and is considered a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index due to its ability to signal upcoming economic trends, as stronger than expected results indicate robust consumer demand and can lead to bullish sentiment in equity and currency markets. Conversely, weaker results may have a bearish effect on key assets like the USD and stocks, as they suggest slowing economic momentum.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing and supply executives in the non-manufacturing sector across various industries, with approximately 400 respondents providing information on their new orders, inventory levels, and employment. The results are calculated using a diffusion index methodology, where a reading over 50 indicates growth, and survey responses are weighted based on industry contributions.

Description

The ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current business conditions in the services sector and indirectly predicting future employment trends and consumer spending patterns. It is released monthly and reflects timely changes in business sentiment, which traders and policymakers closely analyze for insights into economic health.

Additional Notes

The ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index plays a vital role in the context of broader economic indicators such as GDP and employment figures, often correlating positively with consumer confidence. As a coincident indicator, it provides immediate insights into the service sector's performance and can foreshadow trends in related economic measures.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the Dollar but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 05, 2023	52.2	62	62.6	-9.8
Mar 03, 2023	62.6	58.2	60.4	4.4
Feb 03, 2023	60.4	47	45.2	13.4
Jan 06, 2023	45.2	54	56	-8.8
Dec 05, 2022	56	54	56.5	2
Nov 03, 2022	56.5	59.5	60.6	-3
Oct 05, 2022	60.6	61.1	61.8	-0.5
Sep 06, 2022	61.8	58	59.9	3.8
Aug 03, 2022	59.9	52	55.6	7.9
Jul 06, 2022	55.6	57	57.6	-1.4
Jun 03, 2022	57.6	53	54.6	4.6
May 04, 2022	54.6	60.2	60.1	-5.6
Apr 05, 2022	60.1	56.3	56.1	3.8
Mar 03, 2022	56.1	62	61.7	-5.9
Feb 03, 2022	61.7	60	62.1	1.7
Jan 06, 2022	61.5	67	69.7	-5.5
Dec 03, 2021	69.7	68	69.7	1.7
Nov 03, 2021	69.7	63	63.5	6.7
Oct 05, 2021	63.5	61	63.2	2.5
Sep 03, 2021	63.2		63.7
Aug 04, 2021	63.7		62.1
Jul 06, 2021	62.1	63	63.9	-0.9
Jun 03, 2021	63.9	63.3	63.2	0.6
May 05, 2021	63.2	68	67.2	-4.8
Apr 05, 2021	67.2	53	51.9	14.2
Mar 03, 2021	51.9	59.9	61.8	-8
Feb 03, 2021	61.8	58	58.6	3.8
Jan 07, 2021	58.5	55.1	57.2	3.4
Dec 03, 2020	57.2	57	58.8	0.2
Nov 04, 2020	58.8	61	61.5	-2.2
Oct 05, 2020	61.5	55	56.8	6.5
Sep 03, 2020	56.8	58	67.7	-1.2
Aug 05, 2020	67.7	57.4	61.6	10.3
Jul 06, 2020	61.6	45	41.9	16.6
Jun 03, 2020	41.9	38	32.9	3.9
May 05, 2020	32.9		52.9
Apr 03, 2020	52.9		63.1
Mar 04, 2020	63.1	55.6	56.2	7.5
Feb 05, 2020	56.2	55.8	55.3	0.4
Jan 07, 2020	54.9	56.5	57.1	-1.6
Dec 04, 2019	57.1	54.7	55.6	2.4
Nov 05, 2019	55.6	53.2	53.7	2.4
Oct 03, 2019	53.7	59.1	60.3	-5.4
Sep 05, 2019	60.3	53.8	54.1	6.5
Aug 05, 2019	54.1	55.2	55.8	-1.1
Jul 03, 2019	55.8	58	58.6	-2.2
Jun 05, 2019	58.6	54.4	58.1	4.2
May 03, 2019	58.1	59.5	59	-1.4
Apr 03, 2019	59		65.2
Mar 05, 2019	65.2		57.7
Feb 05, 2019	57.7		62.7
Jan 07, 2019	62.7		62.5
Dec 06, 2018	62.5		61.5
Nov 05, 2018	61.5		61.6
Oct 03, 2018	61.6		60.4
Sep 06, 2018	60.4		57
Aug 03, 2018	57		63.2
Jul 05, 2018	63.2		60.5
Jun 05, 2018	60.5		60
May 03, 2018	60		59.5
Apr 04, 2018	59.5		64.8
Mar 05, 2018	64.8		62.7
Feb 05, 2018	62.7		54.3
Jan 05, 2018	54.3		58.7
Dec 05, 2017	58.7		62.8
Nov 03, 2017	62.8		63
Oct 04, 2017	63		57.1
Sep 06, 2017	57.1		55.1
Aug 03, 2017	55.1		60.5
Jul 06, 2017	60.5		57.7
Jun 05, 2017	57.7		63.2
May 03, 2017	63.2		58.9
Apr 05, 2017	58.9		61.2
Mar 03, 2017	61.2		58.6
Feb 03, 2017	58.6		60.7
Jan 05, 2017	61.6		57
Dec 05, 2016	57		57.7
Nov 03, 2016	57.7		60
Oct 05, 2016	60		51.4
Sep 06, 2016	51.4		60.3
Aug 03, 2016	60.3		59.9
Jul 06, 2016	59.9		54.2
Jun 03, 2016	54.2		59.9
May 04, 2016	59.9		56.7
Apr 05, 2016	56.7		55.5
Mar 03, 2016	55.5		56.5
Feb 03, 2016	56.5		58.9
Jan 06, 2016	58.2		57.5
Dec 03, 2015	57.5		62
Oct 05, 2015	56.7		63.4
Sep 03, 2015	63.4		63.8
Aug 05, 2015	63.8		58.3
Jul 06, 2015	58.3		57.9
Jun 03, 2015	57.9	58.25	59.2	-0.35
May 05, 2015	59.2		57.8