United States ISM Services PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Surprise:

USD1

USD

Actual:

51.6

Forecast: 50.6

Previous/Revision:

50.8

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) measures the economic health of the services sector in the United States, focusing on key areas such as business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. It is a national indicator that uses a scale where a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

Frequency

The ISM Services PMI is released monthly, typically on the third business day of the month, and provides a preliminary estimate of the services sector's performance based on data collected from survey respondents.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ISM Services PMI as it significantly influences market sentiment and expectations regarding economic growth. A strong ISM reading can bolster the U.S. dollar and equity markets, while weak results may lead to a decline in these assets as they signal slower economic activity and potentially impact monetary policy.

What Is It Derived From?

The ISM Services PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the services industry, where they report on changes in business conditions. The index is calculated using a diffusion index method, which aggregates responses from a substantial number of firms, weighting their contributions based on industry size.

Description

The ISM Services PMI is based on various components, including business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, all of which provide a comprehensive view of the services sector's vitality. This index reflects the business environment and economic conditions, serving as a crucial gauge for future business investment and consumer demand.

Additional Notes

The ISM Services PMI is considered a leading economic indicator because it provides insights into future economic activity in the services sector, which comprises a significant portion of the U.S. economy. It is often compared to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which reflects the manufacturing sector's performance, and together, they offer a holistic view of the U.S. economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 05, 2025	51.6	50.6	50.8	1
Apr 03, 2025	50.8	53	53.5	-2.2
Mar 05, 2025	53.5	52.6	52.8	0.9
Feb 05, 2025	52.8	54.3	54	-1.5
Jan 07, 2025	54.1	53.3	52.1	0.8
Dec 04, 2024	52.1	55.5	56	-3.4
Nov 05, 2024	56	53.8	54.9	2.2
Oct 03, 2024	54.9	51.7	51.5	3.2
Sep 05, 2024	51.5	51.1	51.4	0.4
Aug 05, 2024	51.4	51	48.8	0.4
Jul 03, 2024	48.8	52.5	53.8	-3.7
Jun 05, 2024	53.8	50.8	49.4	3
May 03, 2024	49.4	52	51.4	-2.6
Apr 03, 2024	51.4	52.7	52.6	-1.3
Mar 05, 2024	52.6	53	53.4	-0.4
Feb 05, 2024	53.4	52	50.5	1.4
Jan 05, 2024	50.6	52.6	52.7	-2
Dec 05, 2023	52.7	52	51.8	0.7
Nov 03, 2023	51.8	53	53.6	-1.2
Oct 04, 2023	53.6	53.6	54.5
Sep 06, 2023	54.5	52.5	52.7	2
Aug 03, 2023	52.7	53	53.9	-0.3
Jul 06, 2023	53.9	51	50.3	2.9
Jun 05, 2023	50.3	52.2	51.9	-1.9
May 03, 2023	51.9	51.8	51.2	0.1