United Kingdom Balance of Trade

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

GBP-0.996B

Actual:

£-3.696B

Forecast: £-2.7B

Previous/Revision:

£-4.856B

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of goods and services exported from the UK and those imported into the country, explicitly reflecting trade dynamics. This indicator focuses primarily on the trade balance, assessing key areas such as exports, imports, and the overall current account, with a negative balance indicating a trade deficit and a positive balance indicating a trade surplus.

Frequency

The Balance of Trade is released monthly, providing a preliminary estimate initially, followed by revised figures that reflect final data; typically, it is published around the second week of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Balance of Trade due to its significant implications for currency valuation and economic health, impacting financial markets by influencing the GBP's strength against other currencies. A trade surplus can bolster the currency and equity markets, while a deficit may lead to bearish sentiments for both assets, making the indicator crucial for economic forecasting and investment decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The Balance of Trade is calculated using data collected from various sources, including customs reports, business surveys, and trade statistics, with figures derived from the Office for National Statistics. This comprehensive approach ensures accuracy, with trade figures being adjusted for seasonal fluctuations and inflated measures to reflect real market conditions.

Description

The Balance of Trade is an essential economic indicator, typically reported as a net figure that highlights the UK's trade position relative to its partners. Monthly fluctuations reflect changes in demand for UK goods and services, as well as shifts in global economic conditions; hence, it serves as a leading indicator of economic performance, influencing policy decisions and market expectations.

Additional Notes

This indicator is primarily considered a coincident economic measure, as it reflects current trading conditions and can provide insights into future economic performance. Comparisons with other economic indicators, such as GDP growth and manufacturing output, are crucial as they paint a broader picture of the UK’s economic landscape and its international competitiveness.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	£-3.696B	£-2.7B	£-4.856B	£-0.996B
Apr 11, 2025	£-1.956B	£-1.1B	£0.301B	£-0.856B
Mar 28, 2025	£-2.64B	£-3.5B	£-2.82B	£0.86B
Feb 13, 2025	£-2.82B	£-1.7B	£-4.35B	£-1.12B
Jan 16, 2025	£-4.76B	£-3.9B	£-5.01B	£-0.86B
Dec 13, 2024	£-3.72B	£-3.4B	£-3.46B	£-0.32B
Nov 15, 2024	£-3.46B	£-0.4B	£-2.015B	£-3.06B
Oct 11, 2024	£-0.955B	£-6.7B	£-4.712B	£5.745B
Sep 11, 2024	£-7.514B	£-4.8B	£-5.324B	£-2.714B
Aug 15, 2024	£-5.324B	£-1.1B	£-5.77B	£-4.224B
Jul 11, 2024	£-4.894B	£-4.3B	£-6.423B	£-0.594B
Jun 12, 2024	£-6.75B	£-1.25B	£-1.098B	£-5.5B
May 10, 2024	£-1.098B	£-2.1B	£-1.478B	£1.002B
Apr 12, 2024	£-2.291B	£-3.7B	£-2.205B	£1.409B
Mar 13, 2024	£-3.129B	£-2.3B	£-2.603B	£-0.829B
Feb 15, 2024	£-2.603B	£-1.9B	£-3.723B	£-0.703B
Jan 12, 2024	£-1.408B	£-4B	£-3.198B	£2.592B
Dec 13, 2023	£-4.48B	£-1.7B	£-1.574B	£-2.78B
Nov 10, 2023	£-1.574B	£-3.6B	£-2.697B	£2.026B
Oct 12, 2023	£-3.415B	£-3.6B	£-1.418B	£0.185B
Sep 13, 2023	£-3.446B	£-4.2B	£-4.787B	£0.754B
Aug 11, 2023	£-4.787B	£-4.6B	£-7.657B	£-0.187B
Jul 13, 2023	£-6.578B	£-2.2B	£-2.463B	£-4.378B
Jun 14, 2023	£-1.518B	£-2.6B	£-2.864B	£1.082B
May 12, 2023	£-2.864B	£-4.8B	£-3.354B	£1.936B
Apr 13, 2023	£-4.805B	£-4.9B	£-3.488B	£0.095B
Mar 10, 2023	£-5.861B	£-6.1B	£-7.15B	£0.239B
Feb 10, 2023	£-7.15B	£-2.8B	£-2.306B	£-4.35B
Jan 13, 2023	£-1.802B	£-1.9B	£1.498B	£0.098B
Dec 12, 2022	£-1.785B	£-3.2B	£-3.135B	£1.415B
Nov 11, 2022	£-3.135B	£-6.8B	£-4.676B	£3.665B
Oct 12, 2022	£-7.08B	£-8.4B	£-5.445B	£1.32B
Sep 12, 2022	£-7.793B	£-11.7B	£-11.387B	£3.907B
Aug 12, 2022	£-11.387B	£-9.6B	£-9.119B	£-1.787B
Jul 13, 2022	£-9.747B	£-9.3B	£-9.811B	£-0.447B
Jun 13, 2022	£-8.503B	£-11.8B	£-11.552B	£3.297B
May 12, 2022	£-11.552B	£-10.6B	£-9.195B	£-0.952B
Apr 11, 2022	£-9.261B	£-11.5B	£-12.838B	£2.239B
Mar 11, 2022	£-16.159B	£-3.7B	£-2.34B	£-12.459B
Feb 11, 2022	£-2.34B	£-3.1B	£-2.59B	£0.76B
Jan 14, 2022	£0.626B	£-2.7B	£0.151B	£3.326B
Dec 10, 2021	£-2.027B	£-3.2B	£-2.8B	£1.173B
Nov 11, 2021	£-2.8B	£-3.4B	£-1.9B	£0.6B
Oct 13, 2021	£-3.7B	£-2.8B	£-2.9B	£-0.9B
Sep 10, 2021	£-3.1B	£-2B	£-2.5B	£-1.1B
Aug 12, 2021	£-2.5B	£-2.2B	£-0.2B	£-0.3B
Jul 09, 2021	£0.9B	£-1.4B	£-1.6B	£2.3B
Jun 11, 2021	£-0.9B	£-3.2B	£-2B	£2.3B
May 12, 2021	£-2B	£-6.1B	£-0.9B	£4.1B
Apr 13, 2021	£-7.1B	£-2.2B	£-3.4B	£-4.9B
Mar 12, 2021	£-1.6B	£-4.8B	£-6.2B	£3.2B
Feb 12, 2021	£-6.2B	£-4.2B	£-6.6B	£-2B
Jan 15, 2021	£-5B	£-1.2B	£-2.3B	£-3.8B
Dec 10, 2020	£-1.7B	£0.5B	£0.6B	£-2.2B
Nov 12, 2020	£0.6B	£-1B	£2.9B	£1.6B
Oct 09, 2020	£1.4B	£0.6B	£1.7B	£0.8B
Sep 11, 2020	£1.1B	£1.2B	£3.9B	£-0.1B
Aug 12, 2020	£5.3B	£2.8B	£7.7B	£2.5B
Jul 14, 2020	£4.3B	£-0.8B	£2.3B	£5.1B
Jun 12, 2020	£0.31B	£-6.2B	£-3.96B	£6.51B
May 13, 2020	£-6.7B	£-1.7B	£-1.5B	£-5B
Apr 09, 2020	£-2.8B	£2.2B	£2.4B	£-5B
Mar 11, 2020	£4.2B	£-3.7B	£6.3B	£7.9B
Feb 11, 2020	£7.715B	£-2.6B	£1.821B	£10.315B
Jan 13, 2020	£4.03B	£-3.2B	£-1.34B	£7.23B
Dec 10, 2019	£-5.19B	£-3B	£-1.92B	£-2.19B
Nov 11, 2019	£-3.36B	£-2.2B	£-1.76B	£-1.16B
Oct 10, 2019	£-1.546B	£-3.8B	£-1.681B	£2.254B
Sep 09, 2019	£-0.219B	£-2.3B	£-0.132B	£2.081B
Aug 09, 2019	£1.779B	£-2.9B	£-2.002B	£4.679B
Jul 10, 2019	£-2.324B	£-2.6B	£-3.716B	£0.276B
Jun 10, 2019	£-2.74B	£-3.2B	£-6.151B	£0.46B
May 10, 2019	£-5.408B	£-2.7B	£-6.219B	£-2.708B
Apr 10, 2019	£-4.86B	£-1.2B	£-5.345B	£-3.66B
Mar 12, 2019	£-3.825B	£-3.5B	£-3.448B	£-0.325B
Feb 11, 2019	£-3.229B	£-1.9B	£-3.615B	£-1.329B
Jan 11, 2019	£-2.904B	£-2.2B	£-3.037B	£-0.704B
Dec 10, 2018	£-3.3B	£-2.6B	£-2.331B	£-0.7B
Nov 09, 2018	£-0.027B	£-1.1B	£-2.101B	£1.073B
Oct 10, 2018	£-1.274B	£-1.15B	£-0.572B	£-0.124B
Sep 10, 2018	£-0.111B	£-2.1B	£-0.942B	£1.989B
Aug 10, 2018	£-1.861B	£-2.5B	£-3.141B	£0.639B
Jul 10, 2018	£-2.79B	£-2.2B	£-3.087B	£-0.59B
Jun 11, 2018	£-5.28B	£-2.5B	£-3.22B	£-2.78B
May 10, 2018	£-3.091B	£-2B	£-1.176B	£-1.091B
Apr 11, 2018	£-0.965B	£-2.6B	£-2.949B	£1.635B
Mar 09, 2018	£-3.074B	£-3.8B	£-2.492B	£0.726B
Feb 09, 2018	£-4.896B	£-2.4B	£-3.65B	£-2.496B
Jan 10, 2018	£-2.804B	£-2.2B	£-2.27B	£-0.604B
Dec 08, 2017	£-1.405B	£-3B	£-1.1B	£1.595B
Nov 10, 2017	£-2.75B	£-4.6B	£-3.46B	£1.85B
Oct 10, 2017	£-5.63B	£-2.8B	£-4.24B	£-2.83B
Sep 08, 2017	£-2.87B	£-4.7B	£-2.91B	£1.83B
Aug 10, 2017	£-4.56B	£-2.5B	£-2.52B	£-2.06B
Jul 07, 2017	£-3.07B	£-1.8B	£-2.12B	£-1.27B
Jun 09, 2017	£-2.05B	£-3.6B	£-3.9B	£1.55B
May 11, 2017	£-4.9B	£-4.4B	£-2.65B	£-0.5B
Apr 07, 2017	£-3.66B	£-3.2B	£-2.98B	£-0.46B
Mar 10, 2017	£-1.97B	£-3.8B	£-2.03B	£1.83B
Feb 10, 2017	£-3.3B	£-2.7B	£-3.56B	£-0.6B
Jan 11, 2017	£-4.17B	£-3.78B	£-1.55B	£-0.39B
Dec 09, 2016	£-1.97B	£-3.4B	£-5.81B	£1.43B
Nov 09, 2016	£-5.2B	£-1.7B	£-3.77B	£-3.5B
Oct 07, 2016	£-4.7B	£-3.1B	£-2.2B	£-1.6B
Sep 09, 2016	£-4.5B		£-5.6B
Aug 09, 2016	£-5.1B		£-4.2B
Jul 08, 2016	£-2.263B		£-1.95B
Jun 09, 2016	£-3.294B		£-3.532B
May 10, 2016	£-3.83B		£-4.3B
Apr 08, 2016	£-4.84B		£-5.23B
Mar 11, 2016	£-3.46B	£-3B	£-3.69B	£-0.46B
Feb 09, 2016	£-2.71B		£-4.03B
Jan 08, 2016	£-3.17B		£-3.51B
Dec 10, 2015	£-4.14B		£-1.07B
Nov 06, 2015	£-1.353B		£-2.905B
Oct 09, 2015	£-3.27B		£-4.4B
Sep 09, 2015	£-3.37B		£-0.82B
Aug 07, 2015	£-1.6B	£-0.6B	£-0.9B	£-1B
Jul 10, 2015	£-0.393B	£-1.4B	£-1.834B	£1.007B
Jun 09, 2015	£-1.202B	£-2.3B	£-3.093B	£1.098B
May 08, 2015	£-2.817B	£-2.95B	£-3.318B	£0.133B