United States Net Long-term TIC Flows

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

USD117.6B

USD

Actual:

$161.8B

Forecast: $44.2B

Previous/Revision:

$112.9B

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The United States Net Long-term TIC (Treasury International Capital) Flows measures the net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors. It assesses the demand for U.S. Treasuries and other securities, which is critical for understanding foreign investment in the U.S. economy, and key indicators include net purchases and sales of U.S. assets over a specific period.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, typically announced on the 15th business day of the month following the reporting month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor Net Long-term TIC Flows as it provides insight into foreign capital flows into the U.S., directly affecting the strength of the U.S. dollar and influencing interest rates. A higher-than-expected net inflow can be bullish for the dollar and equities, while lower-than-anticipated flows might indicate reduced demand for U.S. assets, adversely impacting market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

TIC Flows are derived from reports submitted by financial institutions and other entities that hold U.S. securities. The calculation involves tracking and summing the purchases and sales of long-term securities by foreign investors, applying methodologies endorsed by the Department of the Treasury.

Description

This economic indicator provides a snapshot of the cross-border investment dynamics, focusing on transactions in long-term securities. It serves as a critical measure of foreign investor confidence in U.S. financial markets, reflecting broader economic implications, such as interest rates and exchange rate stability.

Additional Notes

Net Long-term TIC Flows functions as a coincident economic measure, as it reflects current foreign investment behavior and relates to broader economic trends. It is often analyzed alongside other indicators such as the balance of payments and foreign direct investment to gauge overall economic sentiment and global investment trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 16, 2025	$161.8B	$44.2B	$112.9B	$117.6B
Apr 16, 2025	$112B	$35.2B	$-42.2B	$76.8B
Mar 19, 2025	$-45.2B	$101.1M	$75B
Feb 18, 2025	$72B	$149.1B	$53.2B	$-77.1B
Jan 17, 2025	$79B	$159.9B	$159.1B	$-80.9B
Dec 19, 2024	$152.3B		$216.1B
Nov 18, 2024	$216.1B	$114.3B	$108.8B	$101.8B
Oct 17, 2024	$111.4B		$137.9B
Sep 18, 2024	$135.4B	$54.9B	$80.5B	$80.5B
Aug 15, 2024	$96.1B	$56.3B	$-54.1B	$39.8B
Jul 18, 2024	$-54.6B	$98.4B	$123.3B	$-153B
Jun 18, 2024	$123.1B	$69B	$102.6B	$54.1B
May 15, 2024	$100.5B	$89.3B	$62.9B	$11.2B
Apr 17, 2024	$71.5B	$40.2B	$14B	$31.3B
Mar 19, 2024	$36.1B		$158.6B
Feb 15, 2024	$160.2B	$42.6B	$99.7B	$117.6B
Jan 19, 2024	$126.1B		$3.4B
Dec 19, 2023	$3.3B	$45.8B	$0.9B	$-42.5B
Nov 16, 2023	$-1.7B	$89.4B	$62.2B	$-91.1B
Oct 18, 2023	$63.5B	$76.8B	$9.5B	$-13.3B
Sep 18, 2023	$8.8B	$116.5B	$186B	$-107.7B
Aug 15, 2023	$195.9B	$107.2B	$23.6B	$88.7B
Jul 18, 2023	$25.8B	$110.2B	$127.8B	$-84.4B
Jun 15, 2023	$127.8B		$205.6B
May 15, 2023	$133.3B		$56.6B
Apr 17, 2023	$71B		$31.9B
Mar 15, 2023	$31.9B		$152.8B
Feb 15, 2023	$152.8B		$171.5B
Jan 18, 2023	$171.5B		$67.8B
Dec 15, 2022	$67.8B		$117.7B
Nov 16, 2022	$118B		$198.3B
Oct 18, 2022	$197.9B	$28.2B	$21.4B	$169.7B
Sep 16, 2022	$21.4B		$121.8B
Aug 15, 2022	$121.8B		$155.3B
Jul 18, 2022	$155.3B		$87.2B
Jun 15, 2022	$87.7B		$23.1B
May 16, 2022	$23.1B		$141.7B
Apr 15, 2022	$141.7B		$58.8B
Mar 15, 2022	$58.8B		$114.5B
Feb 15, 2022	$114.5B		$137.9B
Jan 18, 2022	$137.4B		$7.1B
Dec 15, 2021	$7.1B		$26.7B
Nov 16, 2021	$26.3B		$79.3B
Oct 18, 2021	$79.3B		$2B
Sep 16, 2021	$2B		$110.9B
Aug 16, 2021	$110.9B		$-30B
Jul 16, 2021	$-30.2B		$100.7B
Jun 15, 2021	$100.7B		$262.4B
May 17, 2021	$262.2B		$4.3B
Apr 15, 2021	$4.2B		$91B
Mar 15, 2021	$90.8B		$121B
Feb 16, 2021	$121B		$149.2B
Jan 19, 2021	$149.2B		$51.9B
Dec 15, 2020	$51.9B		$108.9B
Nov 17, 2020	$108.9B		$27.8B
Oct 16, 2020	$27.8B		$11.3B
Sep 16, 2020	$10.8B	$25.2B	$113B	$-14.4B
Aug 17, 2020	$113B		$118.1B
Jul 16, 2020	$127B		$-130.8B
Jun 15, 2020	$-128.4B		$-111.6B
May 15, 2020	$-112.6B		$49.6B
Apr 15, 2020	$49.4B	$46.3B	$21.8B	$3.1B
Mar 16, 2020	$20.9B	$28.4B	$85.6B	$-7.5B
Feb 18, 2020	$85.6B	$25.5B	$27.1B	$60.1B
Jan 16, 2020	$22.9B	$34.5B	$31.5B	$-11.6B
Dec 16, 2019	$32.5B	$22.6B	$49.5B	$9.9B
Nov 18, 2019	$49.5B	$20.4B	$-41.2B	$29.1B
Oct 16, 2019	$-41.1B	$23.1B	$83.8B	$-64.2B
Sep 17, 2019	$84.3B		$100.6B
Aug 15, 2019	$99.1B	$4.4B	$4.6B	$94.7B
Jul 16, 2019	$3.5B	$32.3B	$46.9B	$-28.8B
Jun 17, 2019	$46.9B	$6.5B	$-25.9B	$40.4B
May 15, 2019	$-28.4B	$36.3B	$51.9B	$-64.7B
Apr 15, 2019	$51.9B	$43.4B	$-7.2B	$8.5B
Mar 15, 2019	$-7.2B		$-48.3B
Feb 15, 2019	$-48.3B		$32.08B
Jan 31, 2019	$37.6B		$31.9B
Dec 17, 2018	$31.3B	$29.9B	$30.8B	$1.4B
Nov 16, 2018	$30.8B	$46.2B	$131.7B	$-15.4B
Oct 16, 2018	$131.8B	$50.3B	$66.7B	$81.5B
Sep 18, 2018	$74.8B	$65.1B	$-36.5B	$9.7B
Aug 15, 2018	$-36.5B	$32.3B	$45.5B	$-68.8B
Jul 17, 2018	$45.6B	$34.3B	$94B	$11.3B
Jun 15, 2018	$93.9B	$58.5B	$61.8B	$35.4B
May 15, 2018	$61.8B	$52B	$49B	$9.8B
Apr 16, 2018	$49B	$43.3B	$61.4B	$5.7B
Mar 15, 2018	$62.1B	$40.2B	$23.3B	$21.9B
Feb 15, 2018	$27.3B	$50.3B	$57.5B	$-23B
Jan 17, 2018	$57.5B	$50.1B	$26.2B	$7.4B
Dec 15, 2017	$23.2B	$57.6B	$80.9B	$-34.4B
Nov 15, 2017	$80.9B	$34.6B	$73.2B	$46.3B
Oct 17, 2017	$67.2B	$14.3B	$1.2B	$52.9B
Sep 18, 2017	$1.3B	$42.3B	$34.4B	$-41B
Aug 15, 2017	$34.4B	$28.3B	$91.9B	$6.1B
Jul 18, 2017	$91.9B	$20.3B	$9.7B	$71.6B
Jun 15, 2017	$1.8B	$37.3B	$59.7B	$-35.5B
May 15, 2017	$59.8B	$68.3B	$53.1B	$-8.5B
Apr 17, 2017	$53.4B	$12.4B	$5.9B	$41B
Mar 15, 2017	$6.3B	$13.4B	$-12.9B	$-7.1B
Feb 15, 2017	$-12.9B	$19.1B	$34.4B	$-32B
Jan 18, 2017	$30.8B	$21.3B	$9.3B	$9.5B
Dec 15, 2016	$9.4B	$99B	$-26.2B	$-89.6B
Nov 16, 2016	$-26.2B	$33B	$45.5B	$-59.2B
Oct 18, 2016	$48.3B	$44.6B	$102.8B	$3.7B
Sep 16, 2016	$103.9B	$30.2B	$-0.5B	$73.7B
Aug 15, 2016	$-3.6B	$39.9B	$40.8B	$-43.5B
Jul 18, 2016	$41.1B	$-12.2B	$-67.4B	$53.3B
Jun 15, 2016	$-79.6B	$22.5B	$78.1B	$-102.1B
May 16, 2016	$78.1B	$36.5B	$72.6B	$41.6B
Apr 15, 2016	$72B	$-32.2B	$-11.9B	$104.2B
Mar 15, 2016	$-12B	$3.2B	$-29.4B	$-15.2B
Feb 16, 2016	$-29.4B	$38B	$31.4B	$-67.4B
Jan 19, 2016	$31.4B		$-17.7B
Dec 15, 2015	$-16.6B	$32.4B	$33.6B	$-49B
Nov 17, 2015	$33.6B	$52.6B	$20.8B	$-19B
Oct 16, 2015	$20.4B	$27.6B	$7.7B	$-7.2B
Sep 16, 2015	$7.7B	$27.5B	$103.1B	$-19.8B
Aug 17, 2015	$103.1B	$37.3B	$93B	$65.8B
Jul 16, 2015	$93B	$40.1B	$54.4B	$52.9B
Jun 15, 2015	$53.9B	$24.9B	$25.6B	$29B
May 15, 2015	$17.6B	$61B	$20.9B	$-43.4B