Japan Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

JPY0.3

Actual:

50.1

Forecast: 49.8

Previous/Revision:

49.6

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 50.8

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Japan Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final measures the performance of the services and manufacturing sectors within Japan's economy, focusing on variables such as output, new orders, employment, and prices. It provides insights into the overall economic health, where a value above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 signifies contraction, serving as a national indicator.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically published on the first business day of the month following the data collection period, and reflects the final figures after adjustments to preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Composite PMI because it serves as a timely indicator of economic activity that can significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices; stronger-than-expected results may lead to appreciation in the Japanese yen and bullish movements in Japanese equities. Conversely, weaker readings can negatively impact these markets and affect predictions on central bank policies.

What Is It Derived From?

The Jibun Bank Composite PMI is calculated from a survey of purchasing managers across various sectors, predominantly services and manufacturing, where respondents report on factors such as new orders, production levels, and employment. A diffusion index methodology is used, where a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below it indicates contraction.

Description

The Composite PMI provides a comprehensive overview of economic activity by combining data from both the manufacturing and services sectors, capturing the prevailing business conditions. This index is particularly valuable as it aggregates insights from different sectors, reflecting the interconnections in the economy and enabling analysts to gauge overall trends.

Additional Notes

The Jibun Bank Composite PMI is considered a leading indicator, often predicting future economic activity by highlighting changes in business sentiment before they reflect in employment or production statistics. Its results are scrutinized alongside other indicators such as GDP growth and inflation rates to provide a holistic view of Japan's economic trajectory.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Japanese Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Japanese Stocks. The tone is usually dovish when the index shows weaker performance, which could be interpreted as signs of lower economic growth, negatively impacting the JPY while potentially signaling favorable conditions for Japanese equities due to lower interest rate expectations or stimulus measures.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	50.1	49.8	49.6	0.3
Nov 06, 2024	49.6	49.4	52	0.2
Oct 03, 2024	52	52.5	52.9	-0.5
Sep 04, 2024	52.9	53	52.5	-0.1
Aug 05, 2024	52.5	52.6	49.7	-0.1
Jul 03, 2024	49.7	50	52.6	-0.3
Jun 05, 2024	52.6	52.4	52.3	0.2
May 07, 2024	52.3	52.6	51.7	-0.3
Apr 03, 2024	51.7	52.3	50.6	-0.6
Mar 05, 2024	50.6	50.3	51.5	0.3
Feb 05, 2024	51.5	51.1	50	0.4
Jan 05, 2024	50	50.4	49.6	-0.4
Dec 05, 2023	49.6	50	50.5	-0.4
Nov 06, 2023	50.5	49.9	52.1	0.6
Oct 04, 2023	52.1	51.8	52.6	0.3
Sep 05, 2023	52.6	52.6	52.2
Aug 03, 2023	52.2	52.1	52.1	0.1
Jul 05, 2023	52.1	52.3	54.3	-0.2
Jun 05, 2023	54.3	54.9	52.9	-0.6
May 08, 2023	52.9	52.5	52.9	0.4
Apr 05, 2023	52.9	51.9	51.1	1
Mar 03, 2023	51.1	50.7	50.7	0.4
Feb 03, 2023	50.7	50.8	49.7	-0.1
Jan 06, 2023	49.7	50	48.9	-0.3
Dec 05, 2022	48.9	48.9	51.8
Nov 04, 2022	51.8	51.7	51	0.1
Oct 05, 2022	51	50.9	49.4	0.1
Sep 05, 2022	49.4	48.9	50.2	0.5
Aug 03, 2022	50.2	50.6	53	-0.4
Jul 05, 2022	53	53.2	52.3	-0.2
Jun 03, 2022	52.3	51.4	51.1	0.9
May 09, 2022	51.1	50.9	50.3	0.2
Apr 05, 2022	50.3	49.3	45.8	1
Mar 03, 2022	45.8	44.6	49.9	1.2
Feb 03, 2022	49.9	48.8	52.5	1.1
Jan 06, 2022	52.5	51.8	53.3	0.7
Dec 03, 2021	53.3	52.5	50.7	0.8
Nov 04, 2021	50.7	50.7	47.9
Oct 05, 2021	47.9	47.7	45.5	0.2
Sep 03, 2021	45.5	45.9	48.8	-0.4
Aug 04, 2021	48.8	47.7	48.9	1.1
Jul 05, 2021	48.9	47.8	48.8	1.1
Jun 03, 2021	48.8	48.1	51	0.7
May 07, 2021	51	50.2	49.9	0.8
Apr 05, 2021	49.9	48.3	48.2	1.6
Mar 03, 2021	48.2	47.6	47.1	0.6
Feb 03, 2021	47.1	46.7	48.5	0.4
Jan 06, 2021	48.5	48	48.1	0.5
Dec 03, 2020	48.1	47	48	1.1
Nov 05, 2020	48	46.7	46.6	1.3
Oct 05, 2020	46.6	45.5	45.2	1.1
Sep 03, 2020	45.2	44.9	44.9	0.3
Aug 05, 2020	44.9	43.9	40.8	1
Jul 03, 2020	40.8	37.9	27.8	2.9
Jun 03, 2020	27.8	27.4	25.8	0.4
May 08, 2020	25.8	27.8	36.2	-2
Apr 03, 2020	36.2	35.8	47	0.4
Mar 04, 2020	47	47	50.1
Feb 05, 2020	50.1	51.1	48.6	-1
Jan 07, 2020	48.6	49.8	49.8	-1.2
Dec 04, 2019	49.8	49.9	49.1	-0.1
Nov 06, 2019	49.1	49.8	51.5	-0.7
Oct 03, 2019	51.5	51.5	51.9
Sep 04, 2019	51.9	51.7	50.6	0.2
Aug 05, 2019	50.6	51.2	50.8	-0.6