United States Core PPI YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

3.1%

Forecast: 3.1%

Previous/Revision:

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Core Producer Price Index (Core PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy prices due to their volatility. It focuses on price changes at the wholesale level, serving as a leading indicator of inflation trends that influence broader economic conditions.

Frequency

Core PPI is released monthly and includes preliminary estimates followed by final figures, typically published on the second or third week of each month reflecting the previous month's data.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to Core PPI as it serves as a key indicator of inflationary pressures, directly affecting the monetary policy strategies of the Federal Reserve. Higher-than-expected results may bolster the US dollar and lead to bullish sentiment in equities, while lower readings are generally bearish for these markets.

What Is It Derived From?

Core PPI is derived from a survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which collects pricing data from a representative sample of producers across various industries. The index utilizes a weighted average calculation method, focusing on the prices producers receive for their goods and services, excluding volatile sectors like food and energy.

Description

Preliminary reports of Core PPI reflect early estimates and are subject to revision, while final reports provide a more accurate depiction, released later. The index typically uses Year-over-Year (YoY) reporting to highlight long-term inflation trends, which helps to eliminate seasonality effects and provide a clearer perspective on sustained price movements.

Additional Notes

Core PPI is considered a leading economic indicator as it often signals impending changes in consumer inflation, thereby influencing monetary policy decisions. It can also be compared to other inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), providing insights into broader economic trends both nationally and in comparison to global economic conditions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	3.1%	3.1%	4%
Apr 11, 2025	3.3%	3.6%	3.5%	-0.3%
Mar 13, 2025	3.4%	3.5%	3.8%	-0.1%
Feb 13, 2025	3.6%	3.3%	3.7%	0.3%
Jan 14, 2025	3.5%	3.8%	3.5%	-0.3%
Dec 12, 2024	3.4%	3.2%	3.4%	0.2%
Nov 14, 2024	3.1%	3%	2.9%	0.1%
Oct 11, 2024	2.8%	2.7%	2.6%	0.1%
Sep 12, 2024	2.4%	2.5%	2.3%	-0.1%
Aug 13, 2024	2.4%	2.7%	3%	-0.3%
Jul 12, 2024	3%	2.5%	2.6%	0.5%
Jun 13, 2024	2.3%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.1%
May 14, 2024	2.4%	2.4%	2.1%
Apr 11, 2024	2.4%	2.3%	2.1%	0.1%
Mar 14, 2024	2%	1.9%	2%	0.1%
Feb 16, 2024	2%	1.6%	1.7%	0.4%
Jan 12, 2024	1.8%	1.9%	2%	-0.1%
Dec 13, 2023	2%	2.2%	2.3%	-0.2%
Nov 15, 2023	2.4%	2.7%	2.7%	-0.3%
Oct 11, 2023	2.7%	2.3%	2.5%	0.4%
Sep 14, 2023	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Aug 11, 2023	2.4%	2.3%	2.4%	0.1%
Jul 13, 2023	2.4%	2.6%	2.6%	-0.2%
Jun 14, 2023	2.8%	2.9%	3.2%	-0.1%
May 11, 2023	3.2%	3.3%	3.4%	-0.1%
Apr 13, 2023	3.4%	3.4%	4.8%
Mar 15, 2023	4.4%	5.2%	5%	-0.8%
Feb 16, 2023	5.4%	4.9%	5.8%	0.5%
Jan 18, 2023	5.5%	5.7%	6.2%	-0.2%
Dec 09, 2022	6.2%	5.9%	6.7%	0.3%
Nov 15, 2022	6.7%	7.2%	7.1%	-0.5%
Oct 12, 2022	7.2%	7.3%	7.2%	-0.1%
Sep 14, 2022	7.3%	7.1%	7.6%	0.2%
Aug 11, 2022	7.6%	7.6%	8.2%
Jul 14, 2022	8.2%	8.1%	8.3%	0.1%
Jun 14, 2022	8.3%	8.6%	8.6%	-0.3%
May 12, 2022	8.8%	8.9%	9.6%	-0.1%
Apr 13, 2022	9.2%	8.4%	8.7%	0.8%
Mar 15, 2022	8.4%	8.7%	8.5%	-0.3%
Feb 15, 2022	8.3%	7.9%	8.5%	0.4%
Jan 13, 2022	8.3%	8%	7.9%	0.3%
Dec 14, 2021	7.7%	7.2%	6.9%	0.5%
Nov 09, 2021	6.8%	6.8%	6.8%
Oct 14, 2021	6.8%	7.1%	6.7%	-0.3%
Sep 10, 2021	6.7%	6.6%	6.2%	0.1%
Aug 12, 2021	6.2%	5.6%	5.6%	0.6%
Jul 14, 2021	5.6%	5.1%	4.8%	0.5%
Jun 15, 2021	4.8%	4.8%	4.1%
May 13, 2021	4.1%	3.7%	3.1%	0.4%
Apr 09, 2021	3.1%	2.7%	2.5%	0.4%
Mar 12, 2021	2.5%	2.6%	2%	-0.1%
Feb 17, 2021	2%	1.1%	1.2%	0.9%
Jan 15, 2021	1.2%	1.3%	1.4%	-0.1%
Dec 11, 2020	1.4%	1.5%	1.1%	-0.1%
Nov 13, 2020	1.1%	1.2%	1.2%	-0.1%
Oct 14, 2020	1.2%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%
Sep 10, 2020	0.6%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Aug 11, 2020	0.3%	0%	0.1%	0.3%
Jul 10, 2020	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.3%
Jun 11, 2020	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.1%
May 13, 2020	0.6%	0.9%	1.4%	-0.3%
Apr 09, 2020	1.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.2%
Mar 12, 2020	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	-0.3%
Feb 19, 2020	1.7%	1.3%	1.1%	0.4%
Jan 15, 2020	1.1%	1.3%	1.3%	-0.2%
Dec 12, 2019	1.3%	1.6%	1.6%	-0.3%
Nov 14, 2019	1.6%	1.5%	2%	0.1%
Oct 08, 2019	2%	2.3%	2.3%	-0.3%
Sep 11, 2019	2.3%	2.2%	2.1%	0.1%
Aug 09, 2019	2.1%	2.4%	2.3%	-0.3%
Jul 12, 2019	2.3%	2.2%	2.3%	0.1%
Jun 11, 2019	2.3%	2.3%	2.4%
May 09, 2019	2.4%	2.5%	2.4%	-0.1%
Apr 11, 2019	2.4%	2.4%	2.5%
Mar 13, 2019	2.5%	2.6%	2.6%	-0.1%
Feb 14, 2019	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%	0.1%
Jan 15, 2019	2.7%	2.9%	2.7%	-0.2%
Dec 11, 2018	2.7%	2.6%	2.6%	0.1%
Nov 09, 2018	2.6%	2.3%	2.5%	0.3%
Oct 10, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.3%