United Kingdom Christmas Day (Substitute Day)

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom Christmas Day (Substitute Day) measures the impact of a public holiday on economic activity, specifically focusing on consumption patterns, retail sales, and employment in the service sector. This indicator primarily assesses variations in consumer spending and operational shifts within businesses due to closures and scheduled holidays.

Frequency

This event occurs annually on December 27th when Christmas Day falls on a weekend, acting as a substitute holiday, and its release is not a statistical report but rather a reflection of normalized economic conditions on a holiday.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on the Christmas Day (Substitute Day) due to its implications for retail sales, consumer behavior, and overall economic performance during a crucial holiday season. A strong performance during this period can bolster expectations for GDP growth, influencing financial markets, including currency and stock prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The indicator is derived from retail sales data, customer surveys, and economic analyses performed by institutions such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and private sector analysts. This involves a combination of consumer spending figures, business activity levels, and employment data to evaluate overall economic impact.

Description

This public holiday reflects consumer behavior patterns and economic activity in the United Kingdom, particularly in the retail and service sectors during a peak shopping season. It highlights the volume of sales generated post-Christmas and informs analysts about broader economic trends affected by seasonal employment and consumer spending.

Additional Notes

The Christmas Day (Substitute Day) serves as a leading indicator of consumer confidence and retail health for the overall economy. Its analysis may be correlated with broader economic trends, such as seasonal employment fluctuations and year-over-year sales growth in the retail sector.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

This economic event does not typically provide numerical expectations or forecasts, hence no direct bullish or bearish assessment for currency or stocks can be rendered.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise