United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Bank of England

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

4.25%

Forecast: 4.25%

Previous/Revision:

4.5%

Period:

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision measures the central bank's policy stance concerning interest rates, assessing the prevailing economic conditions to either keep, raise, or lower the benchmark interest rate. This decision focuses on key areas such as inflation control, economic growth, and financial stability, with a significant emphasis on indicators like consumer price index (CPI) inflation, employment rates, and GDP growth.

Frequency

The interest rate decision is typically released on a monthly basis during the first Thursday of each month; it may include preliminary discussions on future monetary policy as well.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the BoE interest rate decision as it directly influences the cost of borrowing and investment in the economy, impacting key financial assets like the British pound (GBP) and UK government bonds. A higher-than-expected interest rate is generally seen as a bullish signal for the currency, while a decision to lower rates may lead to bearish sentiment in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The BoE's interest rate decision is derived from comprehensive economic analysis, including macroeconomic indicators such as inflation rates, employment data, and output growth, gathered from both domestic and international sources. The decision-making process involves extensive discussion among the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, utilizing economic forecasts and models to guide their conclusions.

Description

Preliminary reports reflect the initial thoughts of MPC members regarding economic conditions and future risks, while final reports provide a more accurate assessment of these conditions as the interest rate decision is confirmed. The report also reviews recent economic developments and how they align with the BoE's inflation and growth targets, utilizing a Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison to assess long-term trends and eliminate seasonal effects.

Additional Notes

The interest rate decision serves as both a leading and coincident indicator of economic health, providing insights into future economic activity and financial conditions. It also underscores broader trends such as shifts in consumer confidence and investment behavior within the UK and can be compared with other central banks' decisions globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates and inflation concerns is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 08, 2025	4.25%	4.25%	4.5%
Mar 20, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Feb 06, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.75%
Dec 19, 2024	4.75%	4.75%	4.75%
Nov 07, 2024	4.75%	4.75%	5%
Sep 19, 2024	5%	5%	5%
Aug 01, 2024	5%	5%	5.25%
Jun 20, 2024	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
May 09, 2024	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
Mar 21, 2024	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
Feb 01, 2024	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
Dec 14, 2023	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
Nov 02, 2023	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
Sep 21, 2023	5.25%	5.5%	5.25%	-0.25%
Aug 03, 2023	5.25%	5.25%	5%
Jun 22, 2023	5%	4.75%	4.5%	0.25%
May 11, 2023	4.5%	4.5%	4.25%
Mar 23, 2023	4.25%	4.25%	4%
Feb 02, 2023	4%	4%	3.5%
Dec 15, 2022	3.5%	3.5%	3%
Nov 03, 2022	3%	3%	2.25%
Sep 22, 2022	2.25%	2.25%	1.75%
Aug 04, 2022	1.75%	1.75%	1.25%
Jun 16, 2022	1.25%	1.25%	1%
May 05, 2022	1%	1%	0.75%
Mar 17, 2022	0.75%	0.75%	0.5%
Feb 03, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%
Dec 16, 2021	0.25%	0.1%	0.1%	0.15%
Nov 04, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 23, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 05, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 24, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
May 06, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 18, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Feb 04, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 17, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 05, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 17, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 06, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 18, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
May 07, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 26, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 19, 2020	0.1%		0.25%
Mar 11, 2020	0.25%		0.75%
Jan 30, 2020	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Dec 19, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Nov 07, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Sep 19, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Aug 01, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Jun 20, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
May 02, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Mar 21, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Feb 07, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Dec 20, 2018	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Nov 01, 2018	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Sep 13, 2018	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Aug 02, 2018	0.75%	0.75%	0.5%
Jun 21, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
May 10, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Mar 22, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Feb 08, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Dec 14, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Nov 02, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%
Sep 14, 2017	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Aug 03, 2017	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jun 15, 2017	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
May 11, 2017	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Mar 16, 2017	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Feb 02, 2017	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Dec 15, 2016	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 03, 2016	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 15, 2016	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Aug 04, 2016	0.25%	0.25%	0.5%
Jul 14, 2016	0.5%	0.25%	0.5%	0.25%
Jun 16, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
May 12, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Apr 14, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Mar 17, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Feb 04, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jan 14, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Dec 10, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Nov 05, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Oct 08, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Sep 10, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Aug 06, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 09, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jun 04, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
May 11, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%