New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: ANZ Bank New Zealand

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-16.4

NZD

Actual:

36.6

Forecast: 53

Previous/Revision:

49.3

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 60

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The ANZ Business Confidence index measures the sentiment of businesses in New Zealand regarding economic conditions, providing insights into their expectations for the economy, employment, and investment. This indicator primarily focuses on general business sentiment and assesses key areas such as production outlook, investment intentions, and expected profitability, with values above zero indicating optimism and below zero indicating pessimism.

Frequency

The ANZ Business Confidence index is released monthly, typically around the end of each month, and represents a preliminary estimate subject to revisions in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the ANZ Business Confidence index as it serves as an early indicator of economic health in New Zealand, influencing expectations for the New Zealand dollar (NZD), equities, and broader market sentiment. A higher-than-expected reading can bolster confidence in the NZD and equities, while a weaker reading may lead to bearish sentiment and a potential decline in asset prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of a diverse group of New Zealand businesses, capturing responses from managers across various sectors regarding their expectations for the economy. Utilizing a diffusion index methodology, the survey results are weighted to reflect the size and sectoral representation of the responding businesses, facilitating a comprehensive overview of business sentiment.

Description

The ANZ Business Confidence index is a crucial economic indicator that reflects the outlook of New Zealand businesses for the upcoming months. Since it provides insights into future economic activity, it is considered a leading indicator, with changes in sentiment often preceding shifts in activity levels across production, investment, and employment.

Additional Notes

The ANZ Business Confidence index serves as a leading economic measure correlating with other indicators like consumer confidence and manufacturing sentiment. Its relationship with broader economic trends makes it essential for assessing future economic conditions within New Zealand and can indicate potential shifts in its monetary policy stance.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for NZD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 29, 2025	36.6	53	49.3	-16.4
Apr 30, 2025	49.3	50	57.5	-0.7
Mar 31, 2025	57.5	58	58.4	-0.5
Feb 27, 2025	58.4	56	54.4	2.4
Jan 30, 2025	54.4	62.6	62.3	-8.2
Dec 19, 2024	62.3	60	64.9	2.3
Nov 28, 2024	64.9	66	65.7	-1.1
Oct 31, 2024	65.7	55	60.9	10.7
Sep 30, 2024	60.9	43	50.6	17.9
Aug 29, 2024	50.6	20	27.1	30.6
Jul 31, 2024	27.1	4.5	6.1	22.6
Jun 27, 2024	6.1	10.2	11.2	-4.1
May 29, 2024	11.2	15	14.9	-3.8
Apr 30, 2024	14.9	24	22.9	-9.1
Mar 28, 2024	22.9	34	34.7	-11.1
Feb 29, 2024	34.7	38	36.6	-3.3
Jan 31, 2024	36.6	30	33.2	6.6
Dec 19, 2023	33.2	33	30.8	0.2
Nov 30, 2023	30.8	19	23.4	11.8
Oct 31, 2023	23.4	1	1.5	22.4
Sep 28, 2023	1.5	5	-3.7	-3.5
Aug 31, 2023	-3.7	-1.9	-13.1	-1.8
Jul 31, 2023	-13.1	-22	-18	8.9
Jun 29, 2023	-18	-28.1	-31.1	10.1
May 31, 2023	-31.1	-43.4	-43.8	12.3
Apr 27, 2023	-43.8	-41	-43.4	-2.8
Mar 30, 2023	-43.4	-40	-43.3	-3.4
Feb 28, 2023	-43.3	-46	-52	2.7
Jan 27, 2023	-52	-66	-70.2	14
Dec 20, 2022	-70.2	-52	-57.1	-18.2
Nov 30, 2022	-57.1	-38	-42.7	-19.1
Oct 26, 2022	-42.7	-32	-36.7	-10.7
Sep 29, 2022	-36.7	-42	-47.8	5.3
Aug 31, 2022	-47.8	-55	-56.7	7.2
Jul 28, 2022	-56.7	-65	-62.6	8.3
Jun 30, 2022	-62.6	-59	-55.6	-3.6
May 31, 2022	-55.6	-38	-42	-17.6
Apr 28, 2022	-42	-30.7	-41.9	-11.3
Mar 30, 2022	-41.9	-55.9	-51.8	14
Dec 17, 2021	-23.2	-2.3	-16.4	-20.9
Nov 30, 2021	-16.4	-7.6	-13.4	-8.8
Sep 30, 2021	-7.2	-7	-14.2	-0.2
Aug 31, 2021	-14.2	-6	-3.8	-8.2
Jul 29, 2021	-3.8	1.2	-0.6	-5
Dec 18, 2020	9.4	-7.5	-6.9	16.9
Sep 30, 2020	-28.5	-40.5	-41.8	12
Aug 31, 2020	-41.8	-33	-31.8	-8.8
Jul 30, 2020	-31.8	-31	-34.4	-0.8
Jun 30, 2020	-34.4	-38	-41.8	3.6
May 28, 2020	-41.8	-60	-66.6	18.2
Apr 30, 2020	-66.6	-73	-63.5	6.4
Mar 31, 2020	-63.5	-24.1	-19.4	-39.4
Feb 27, 2020	-19.4	-7.9	-13.2	-11.5
Dec 17, 2019	-13.2	-13.6	-26.4	0.4
Nov 28, 2019	-26.4	-30.8	-42.4	4.4
Oct 31, 2019	-42.4	-54.1	-53.5	11.7
Sep 30, 2019	-53.5	-58.5	-52.3	5
Aug 29, 2019	-52.3	-49.5	-44.3	-2.8
Jul 31, 2019	-44.3	-34.9	-38.1	-9.4
Jun 27, 2019	-38.1	-22.7	-32	-15.4
May 29, 2019	-32	-42.7	-37.5	10.7
Apr 30, 2019	-37.5	-42.8	-38	5.3
Mar 28, 2019	-38	-24.3	-30.9	-13.7
Feb 28, 2019	-30.9	-22	-24.1	-8.9
Dec 18, 2018	-24.1	-36	-37.1	11.9
Nov 29, 2018	-37.1	-36	-37.1	-1.1
Oct 31, 2018	-37.1	-40	-38.3	2.9
Sep 26, 2018	-38.3	-57	-50.3	18.7
Aug 30, 2018	-50.3	-38.1	-44.9	-12.2
Jul 31, 2018	-44.9	-37.7	-39	-7.2
Jun 27, 2018	-39	-27.8	-27.2	-11.2
May 31, 2018	-27.2	-19.8	-23.4	-7.4
Apr 30, 2018	-23.4	-17	-20	-6.4
Mar 28, 2018	-20	-16	-19	-4
Feb 28, 2018	-19	-30.4	-37.8	11.4
Dec 19, 2017	-37.8	-20	-39.3	-17.8
Nov 30, 2017	-39.3	-6	-10.1	-33.3
Oct 31, 2017	-10.1%	-4%	0%	-6.1%
Sep 26, 2017	0	17.8	18.3	-17.8
Aug 31, 2017	18.3	20.5	19.4	-2.2
Jul 31, 2017	19.4	26.7	24.8	-7.3
Jun 29, 2017	24.8	15.1	14.9	9.7
May 31, 2017	14.9	12.5	11	2.4
Apr 28, 2017	11	11.7	11.3	-0.7
Mar 31, 2017	11.3	15.9	16.6	-4.6
Feb 28, 2017	16.6	21.4	21.7	-4.8
Dec 19, 2016	21.7	25.7	20.5	-4
Nov 30, 2016	20.5	25.1	24.5	-4.6
Oct 31, 2016	24.5	31.2	27.9	-6.7
Sep 30, 2016	27.9	25	15.5	2.9
Aug 31, 2016	15.5	12.28	16	3.22
Jul 29, 2016	16	21.8	20.2	-5.8
Jun 30, 2016	20.2	12.33	11.3	7.87
May 31, 2016	11.3	7.26	6.2	4.04
Apr 29, 2016	6.2	4.1	3.2	2.1
Mar 31, 2016	3.2	7.5	7.1	-4.3
Feb 28, 2016	7.1	24.21	23	-17.11
Dec 18, 2015	23	10.65	14.6	12.35
Nov 30, 2015	14.6	11	10.5	3.6
Oct 30, 2015	10.5	-11.64	-18.9	22.14
Sep 30, 2015	-18.9	-30.03	-29.1	11.13
Aug 31, 2015	-29.1%	-12.31%	-15.3%	-16.79%
Jul 31, 2015	-15.3	-5.8	-2.3	-9.5
Jun 30, 2015	-2.3	18.4	15.7	-20.7
May 29, 2015	15.7	28.73	30.2	-13.03