United States Core PCE Price Index MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

0.1%

USD

Actual:

0.2%

Forecast: 0.1%

Previous/Revision:

0.1%

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.1%

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States, excluding food and energy items due to their price volatility. It focuses on assessing underlying inflation trends, providing a broader understanding of consumer spending patterns and the general price level.

Frequency

The Core PCE Price Index is released on a monthly basis and consists of preliminary estimates that may later be revised to reflect the final figures, typically published on the last business day of the month following the observed period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on the Core PCE Price Index as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, directly influencing monetary policy and interest rate decisions. A higher-than-expected reading is generally bullish for the U.S. dollar and financial markets, while a lower figure can lead to a bearish sentiment as it may signal weakening demand or lower inflationary pressures.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core PCE Price Index is derived from data collected through surveys of households and businesses, which are then adjusted to account for changes in consumption patterns and inflation. It employs a chain-weighted approach to calculate price changes, effectively capturing shifts in consumer behavior and capturing a representative basket of goods and services.

Description

The PCE Price Index distinguishes itself from other inflation measures by its use of a broader range of expenditures and the fact that it adjusts for changes in the consumption patterns of households, reflecting a more dynamic picture of consumer price influences. This index is reported in a month-over-month (MoM) format, which allows analysts and traders to gauge short-term price changes and quickly identify shifts in inflationary pressures.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a lagging indicator, as it reflects past consumer spending patterns and price changes. It is closely watched alongside other inflation indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to offer a holistic view of the economic landscape and potential inflationary trends both regionally and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 27, 2025	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
May 30, 2025	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2025	0%	0.1%	0.5%	-0.1%
Mar 28, 2025	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Feb 28, 2025	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2025	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Dec 20, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Nov 27, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Oct 31, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Sep 27, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jul 26, 2024	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
May 31, 2024	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 26, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Mar 29, 2024	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Feb 29, 2024	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jan 26, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Dec 22, 2023	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Oct 27, 2023	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Sep 29, 2023	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jul 28, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Jun 30, 2023	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
May 26, 2023	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Apr 28, 2023	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Mar 31, 2023	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.1%
Feb 24, 2023	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Jan 27, 2023	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Dec 23, 2022	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Dec 01, 2022	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Sep 30, 2022	0.6%	0.5%	0%	0.1%
Aug 26, 2022	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.2%
Jul 29, 2022	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
May 27, 2022	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Apr 29, 2022	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Mar 31, 2022	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Feb 25, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jan 28, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Dec 23, 2021	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Nov 24, 2021	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Oct 29, 2021	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Oct 01, 2021	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Aug 27, 2021	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Jul 30, 2021	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	-0.2%
Jun 25, 2021	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	-0.1%
May 28, 2021	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 26, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Feb 26, 2021	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Jan 29, 2021	0.3%	0.1%	0%	0.2%
Dec 23, 2020	0%	0.1%	0%	-0.1%
Nov 25, 2020	0%	0%	0.2%
Oct 30, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Oct 01, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
Aug 28, 2020	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.2%
Jul 31, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jun 26, 2020	0.1%	0%	-0.4%	0.1%
May 29, 2020	-0.4%	-0.3%	0%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2020	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Feb 28, 2020	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jan 31, 2020	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 20, 2019	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 27, 2019	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Oct 31, 2019	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 27, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jul 30, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jun 28, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 31, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Apr 29, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 29, 2019	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 29, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 21, 2018	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 29, 2018	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Oct 29, 2018	0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.1%
Sep 28, 2018	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 30, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Jun 29, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 31, 2018	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Mar 29, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Mar 01, 2018	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Jan 29, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Dec 22, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Nov 30, 2017	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Oct 30, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 29, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 01, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
May 30, 2017	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
May 01, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Mar 31, 2017	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Mar 01, 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Jan 30, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0%
Dec 22, 2016	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Aug 29, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 02, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Jun 29, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 31, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Apr 29, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Mar 28, 2016	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Feb 26, 2016	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Feb 01, 2016	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Nov 25, 2015	0%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Oct 30, 2015	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 28, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 28, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 03, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%