China Inflation Rate MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

CNY

Actual:

0.1%

Forecast: 0.2%

Previous/Revision:

-0.4%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The China Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by households, indicating the inflation level in the economy. This indicator primarily assesses price changes related to various sectors such as food, transportation, and housing, with key indicators including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), and it is considered a national indicator.

Frequency

The China Inflation Rate is reported monthly, with the figures typically released around the 10th of each month and includes both preliminary estimates and final revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the inflation rate as it influences monetary policy decisions and market sentiment; a higher-than-expected inflation rate can lead to tightening monetary policy, impacting asset prices across currencies, stocks, and bonds. Conversely, lower inflation readings may suggest economic weakness, leading to potential easing, which can positively affect equity markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The inflation rate is derived from a comprehensive survey that collects price data across multiple categories, focusing on consumer purchases. The method involves creating a weighted index based on the relative importance of goods in the consumption basket, with specific attention to price changes observed through various retail and service sectors.

Description

The China Inflation Rate is typically reported as a Year-over-Year (YoY) metric, comparing current prices to those from the same month in the previous year; this approach helps eliminate seasonal variations and showcases long-term trends in price changes. Traders interpret YoY inflation data as indicative of broader economic conditions, including potential shifts in consumer behavior and economic growth prospects.

Additional Notes

The inflation rate serves as a key coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and influencing other economic reports such as GDP and retail sales. Changes in inflation trends can signal shifts in consumer confidence, impacting not only the domestic market but also trade relations and economic conditions regionally and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the CNY but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 10, 2025	0.1%	0.2%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Apr 10, 2025	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Mar 09, 2025	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.7%	-0.1%
Feb 09, 2025	0.7%	0.8%	0%	-0.1%
Jan 09, 2025	0%	0%	-0.6%
Dec 09, 2024	-0.6%	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Nov 09, 2024	-0.3%	-0.1%	0%	-0.2%
Oct 13, 2024	0%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.4%
Sep 09, 2024	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.1%
Aug 09, 2024	0.5%	0.3%	-0.2%	0.2%
Jul 10, 2024	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 12, 2024	-0.1%	0%	0.1%	-0.1%
May 11, 2024	0.1%	0.5%	-1%	-0.4%
Apr 11, 2024	-1%	-0.5%	1%	-0.5%
Mar 09, 2024	1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.3%
Feb 08, 2024	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jan 12, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	-0.5%	-0.1%
Dec 09, 2023	-0.5%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Nov 09, 2023	-0.1%	0%	0.2%	-0.1%
Oct 13, 2023	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Sep 09, 2023	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Aug 09, 2023	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.3%
Jul 10, 2023	-0.2%	0%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Jun 09, 2023	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
May 11, 2023	-0.1%	0%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 11, 2023	-0.3%	0%	-0.5%	-0.3%
Mar 09, 2023	-0.5%	0.2%	0.8%	-0.7%
Feb 10, 2023	0.8%	0.7%	0%	0.1%
Jan 12, 2023	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Dec 09, 2022	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
Nov 09, 2022	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.2%
Oct 14, 2022	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 09, 2022	-0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	-0.3%
Aug 10, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0%
Jul 09, 2022	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 10, 2022	-0.2%	-0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
May 11, 2022	0.4%	0.2%	0%	0.2%
Apr 11, 2022	0%	-0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Mar 09, 2022	0.6%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
Feb 16, 2022	0.4%	0.5%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Jan 12, 2022	-0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.5%
Dec 09, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%
Nov 10, 2021	0.7%	0.7%	0%
Oct 14, 2021	0%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.3%
Sep 09, 2021	0.1%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.4%
Aug 09, 2021	0.3%	0.2%	-0.4%	0.1%
Jul 09, 2021	-0.4%	0%	-0.2%	-0.4%
Jun 09, 2021	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.1%
May 11, 2021	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.5%	-0.1%
Apr 09, 2021	-0.5%	-0.4%	0.6%	-0.1%
Mar 10, 2021	0.6%	0.4%	1%	0.2%
Feb 10, 2021	1%	1%	0.7%
Jan 11, 2021	0.7%	0.4%	-0.6%	0.3%
Dec 09, 2020	-0.6%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%
Nov 10, 2020	-0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.5%
Oct 15, 2020	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%
Sep 09, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%
Aug 10, 2020	0.6%	0.4%	-0.1%	0.2%
Jul 09, 2020	-0.1%	0%	-0.8%	-0.1%
Jun 10, 2020	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.9%	-0.3%
May 12, 2020	-0.9%	-0.5%	-1.2%	-0.4%
Apr 10, 2020	-1.2%	-0.7%	0.8%	-0.5%
Mar 10, 2020	0.8%	0.8%	1.4%
Feb 10, 2020	1.4%	0.8%	0%	0.6%
Jan 09, 2020	0%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%
Dec 10, 2019	0.4%	0.1%	0.9%	0.3%
Nov 09, 2019	0.9%	0.7%	0.9%	0.2%
Oct 15, 2019	0.9%	0.7%	0.7%	0.2%
Sep 10, 2019	0.7%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
Aug 09, 2019	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
Jul 10, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jun 12, 2019	0%	0%	0.1%
May 09, 2019	0.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
Apr 11, 2019	-0.4%	-0.2%	1%	-0.2%
Mar 09, 2019	1%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%
Feb 15, 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0%
Jan 10, 2019	0%	0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Dec 09, 2018	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
Nov 09, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%
Oct 16, 2018	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
Sep 10, 2018	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%
Aug 09, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jul 10, 2018	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Jun 09, 2018	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
May 10, 2018	-0.2%	-0.1%	-1.1%	-0.1%
Apr 11, 2018	-1.1%	-0.5%	1.2%	-0.6%
Mar 09, 2018	1.2%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%
Feb 09, 2018	0.6%	0.7%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jan 10, 2018	0.3%	0.3%	0%
Dec 09, 2017	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 09, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	-0.1%
Oct 16, 2017	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Sep 09, 2017	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 09, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Jul 10, 2017	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Jun 09, 2017	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
May 10, 2017	0.1%	0%	-0.3%	0.1%
Apr 12, 2017	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Mar 09, 2017	-0.2%	0.6%	1%	-0.8%
Feb 14, 2017	1%	0.7%	0.2%	0.3%
Jan 10, 2017	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 09, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 09, 2016	-0.1%	0%	0.7%	-0.1%
Oct 14, 2016	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
Sep 09, 2016	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.2%
Aug 09, 2016	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
Jul 10, 2016	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.2%
Jun 09, 2016	-0.5%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%
May 10, 2016	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.4%
Apr 11, 2016	-0.4%	-0.3%	1.6%	-0.1%
Mar 10, 2016	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.5%
Feb 18, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jan 09, 2016	0.5%	0.4%	0%	0.1%
Dec 09, 2015	0%	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%
Nov 10, 2015	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Oct 14, 2015	0.1%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.4%
Sep 10, 2015	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Aug 09, 2015	0.3%	0.3%	0%
Jul 09, 2015	0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 09, 2015	-0.2%	0%	-0.2%	-0.2%
May 09, 2015	-0.2%	0%	-0.5%	-0.2%