United Kingdom Current Account

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

£3.5B

GBP

Actual:

£-21B

Forecast: £-24.5B

Previous/Revision:

£-12.5B

Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: £-23.5B

Period: Q1

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom's Current Account measures the difference between the country's savings and its investment, specifically evaluating the balance of trade in goods and services, net income, and current transfers. This national indicator provides insights into the UK's economic position with the rest of the world, particularly assessing international trade, foreign investment, and monetary flows.

Frequency

The Current Account report is typically released quarterly, with a final estimate published a few months after the end of the reporting period to account for data revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on the Current Account as it reflects the country's economic health and its attractiveness to foreign investment, influencing exchange rates and capital flows. A surplus may support the currency (GBP), while a deficit could lead to depreciation expectations and affect equity market performance.

What Is It Derived From?

The Current Account is calculated from national accounts data, incorporating information from trade statistics, foreign investments, and income flows from abroad, drawn from business surveys and government estimates. The data collection ensures comprehensive coverage of transactions affecting international financial positions.

Description

Preliminary data on the Current Account is based on early estimates and subject to revisions, whereas the final data provides a more accurate account of the balance of payments, reflecting additional reporting and adjustments. This indicator is typically analyzed year-over-year (YoY) to illustrate long-term trends and mitigate seasonality, showcasing structural changes in the UK's economic interactions with the rest of the world.

Additional Notes

The Current Account is considered a coincident economic measure as it aligns closely with the overall health of the economy, reflecting ongoing transactions. It is also crucial for understanding broader economic trends, particularly regarding the UK's competitiveness and reliance on foreign capital.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 28, 2025	£-21B	£-24.5B	£-12.5B	£3.5B
Dec 23, 2024	£-18.1B	£-24.1B	£-24B	£6B
Sep 30, 2024	£-28.4B	£-32.2B	£-13.8B	£3.8B
Jun 28, 2024	£-21B	£-17.6B	£-21.2B	£-3.4B
Mar 28, 2024	£-21.177B	£-21.4B	£-18.524B	£0.223B
Dec 22, 2023	£-17.175B	£-15B	£-23.968B	£-2.175B
Sep 29, 2023	£-25.289B	£-15B	£-15.155B	£-10.289B
Jun 30, 2023	£-10.757B	£-8.5B	£-2.483B	£-2.257B
Mar 31, 2023	£-2.483B	£-17.6B	£-12.744B	£15.117B
Dec 22, 2022	£-19.402B	£-20.84B	£-33.768B	£1.438B
Sep 30, 2022	£-33.8B	£-43.8B	£-43.9B	£10B
Jun 30, 2022	£-51.7B	£-39.8B	£-7.3B	£-11.9B
Mar 31, 2022	£-7.3B	£-17.6B	£-28.9B	£10.3B
Dec 22, 2021	£-24.444B	£-15.6B	£-13.462B	£-8.844B
Sep 30, 2021	£-8.605B	£-15.573B	£-8.88B	£6.968B
Jun 30, 2021	£-12.8B	£-13.25B	£-26.3B	£0.45B
Mar 31, 2021	£-26.3B	£-33B	£-14.3B	£6.7B
Dec 22, 2020	£-15.7B	£-11.6B	£-11.9B	£-4.1B
Sep 30, 2020	£-2.8B	£-0.4B	£-20.8B	£-2.4B
Jun 30, 2020	£-21.1B	£-15.4B	£-9.2B	£-5.7B
Mar 31, 2020	£-5.6B	£-7B	£-19.9B	£1.4B
Dec 20, 2019	£-15.86B	£-16B	£-24.152B	£0.14B
Sep 30, 2019	£-25.2B	£-19.5B	£-33.1B	£-5.7B
Jun 28, 2019	£-30B	£-32B	£-23.7B	£2B
Mar 29, 2019	£-23.7B	£-23B	£-23B	£-0.7B
Dec 21, 2018	£-26.5B	£-21.2B	£-20B	£-5.3B
Sep 28, 2018	£-20.317B	£-19.4B	£-15.7B	£-0.917B
Jun 29, 2018	£-17.72B	£-18B	£-19.54B	£0.28B
Mar 29, 2018	£-18.4B	£-24B	£-19.2B	£5.6B
Dec 22, 2017	£-22.8B	£-21.2B	£-25.8B	£-1.6B
Sep 29, 2017	£-23.2B	£-16B	£-22.256B	£-7.2B
Jun 30, 2017	£-16.9B	£-17.3B	£-12.1B	£0.4B
Mar 31, 2017	£-12.1B	£-16B	£-25.7B	£3.9B
Dec 23, 2016	£-25.5B	£-27.45B	£-22.1B	£1.95B
Sep 30, 2016	£-28.7B	£-30.5B	£-27B	£1.8B
Jun 30, 2016	£-32.6B	£-27.1B	£-34B	£-5.5B
Mar 31, 2016	£-37.2B	£-21.1B	£-20.1B	£-16.1B
Dec 23, 2015	£-17.5B	£-21.5B	£-17.5B	£4B
Sep 30, 2015	£-16.8B	£-22.25B	£-24B	£5.45B
Jun 30, 2015	£-26.6B	£-23.25B	£-28.93B	£-3.35B