Japan Tokyo CPI YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.7%

Actual:

2.6%

Forecast: 1.9%

Previous/Revision:

1.8%

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area over the past year. It mainly assesses inflationary trends, which can impact the cost of living, purchasing power, and economic policy decisions in Japan.

Frequency

The Tokyo CPI YoY is released monthly, typically published in the Japanese market during the first week of the month following the reference month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Tokyo CPI YoY as it provides insight into inflation trends, which can affect monetary policy and influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation figures may lead to a stronger Japanese yen and positively impact Japanese equities, while lower-than-expected results could result in a weakening currency and bearish market sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Tokyo CPI is derived from a survey that collects price data on a wide range of consumer goods and services from various retailers and service providers in Tokyo. The index uses a weighted aggregation method, where different items in the CPI basket have varying degrees of importance based on consumer purchasing patterns.

Description

The preliminary report on the Tokyo CPI is subject to revisions as it is based on early estimates of price changes, while the final report provides a more accurate reflection of inflation trends based on comprehensive data collection. Month-over-Month (MoM) reporting is not a feature of this event; however, the YoY measure effectively reveals long-term inflation trends and seasonal effects, which are crucial for economic analysis.

Additional Notes

The Tokyo CPI serves primarily as a leading economic indicator of consumer price trends in Japan and is closely watched by policymakers globally. Its outcomes can correlate with national CPI data, and shifts in Tokyo CPI trends may precede broader inflation movements across Japan and potentially influence economic conditions in other advanced economies.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation expectations is usually bad for the JPY but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 28, 2024		2.6%	1.9%	1.8%	0.7%