United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.6%

USD

Actual:

-7.5%

Forecast: -8.1%

Previous/Revision:

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM measures new orders for manufacturing durable goods, excluding defense-related items, on a month-over-month basis. It focuses on consumer and business demand for long-lasting goods, such as machinery and equipment, indicating the health of the manufacturing sector and broader economic activity.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, with the report typically published on the 26th of each month, providing preliminary estimates for the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM as it serves as an indicator of future manufacturing output and overall economic strength. A higher-than-expected reading is seen as bullish for the U.S. dollar and equity markets, while weaker figures may lead to bearish sentiment, particularly impacting cyclical stocks and related sectors.

What Is It Derived From?

The Durable Goods Orders ex Defense is calculated based on surveys sent to manufacturers who report the new orders they have received. The data is compiled and adjusted for seasonal variations to reflect underlying demand trends accurately.

Description

The data can be subject to revision, with preliminary figures offering an early view of demand trends that may later be refined in final reports based on more complete data. The month-over-month comparison is used to capture the short-term trends in order activity, which is critical for timely decision-making and economic projections.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a leading economic measure, suggesting future production and potential shifts in the labor market. It correlates with broader economic indicators like GDP growth and can reflect changes in consumer confidence, particularly in the context of economic cycles.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 27, 2025	-7.5%	-8.1%	9%	0.6%
Apr 24, 2025	10.4%	0.2%	0.8%	10.2%
Mar 26, 2025	0.8%	-1.6%	3.7%	2.4%
Feb 27, 2025	3.5%	1.4%	-1.8%	2.1%
Jan 28, 2025	-2.4%	0.4%	-1.3%	-2.8%
Dec 23, 2024	-0.3%	-0.2%	1%	-0.1%
Nov 27, 2024	0.4%	-0.6%	-0.9%	1%
Oct 25, 2024	-1.1%	-0.7%	-1.3%	-0.4%
Sep 26, 2024	-0.2%	-3.5%	10.3%	3.3%
Aug 26, 2024	10.4%	2.2%	-7.5%	8.2%
Jul 25, 2024	-7%	0.1%	-0.2%	-7.1%
Jun 27, 2024	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.5%	-0.1%
May 24, 2024	0%	-0.3%	1.2%	0.3%
Apr 24, 2024	2.3%	1.2%	1.5%	1.1%
Mar 26, 2024	2.2%	2.4%	-7.9%	-0.2%
Feb 27, 2024	-7.3%	0.3%	0.1%	-7.6%
Jan 25, 2024	0.5%	-0.1%	6.9%	0.6%
Dec 22, 2023	6.5%	2.1%	-6.4%	4.4%
Nov 22, 2023	-6.7%	-3.7%	5%	-3%
Oct 26, 2023	5.8%	0.1%	-0.7%	5.7%
Sep 27, 2023	-0.7%	1.3%	-6%	-2%
Aug 24, 2023	-5.4%	0.6%	5.9%	-6%
Jul 27, 2023	6.2%	0.1%	3.2%	6.1%
Jun 27, 2023	3%	0.5%	-0.5%	2.5%
May 26, 2023	-0.6%	-1.5%	3.2%	0.9%
Apr 26, 2023	3.5%	0.3%	-0.8%	3.2%
Mar 24, 2023	-0.5%	0.2%	-5.6%	-0.7%
Feb 27, 2023	-5.1%	-3.1%	5.6%	-2%
Jan 26, 2023	6.3%	2.4%	-2.3%	3.9%
Dec 23, 2022	-2.6%	0.2%	0.4%	-2.8%
Nov 23, 2022	0.8%	0.4%	1.4%	0.4%
Oct 27, 2022	1.4%	0.1%	-0.3%	1.3%
Sep 27, 2022	-0.9%	0.3%	0.9%	-1.2%
Aug 24, 2022	1.2%	0.3%	0.7%	0.9%
Jul 27, 2022	0.4%	0.4%	0.7%
Jun 27, 2022	0.6%	-0.5%	0.2%	1.1%
May 25, 2022	0.3%	1%	1.2%	-0.7%
Apr 26, 2022	1.2%	0.7%	-2.1%	0.5%
Mar 24, 2022	-2.7%	-0.5%	1.4%	-2.2%
Feb 25, 2022	1.6%	0.1%	2.7%	1.5%
Jan 27, 2022	0.1%	1.5%	2.7%	-1.4%
Dec 23, 2021	2%	1.2%	1.3%	0.8%
Nov 24, 2021	0.8%	0.7%	-1.9%	0.1%
Oct 27, 2021	-2%	0.4%	1.7%	-2.4%
Sep 27, 2021	2.4%	0.3%	-0.5%	2.1%
Aug 25, 2021	-1.2%	0.3%	0.9%	-1.5%
Jul 27, 2021	1%	0.8%	2.8%	0.2%
Jun 24, 2021	1.7%	0.2%	0.5%	1.5%
May 27, 2021	0%	0.4%	2.2%	-0.4%
Apr 26, 2021	0.5%	1.2%	-0.4%	-0.7%
Mar 24, 2021	-0.7%	0.9%	2.3%	-1.6%
Feb 25, 2021	2.3%	0.3%	1.4%	2%
Jan 27, 2021	0.5%	0.5%	1.2%
Dec 23, 2020	0.7%	0.1%	0.8%	0.6%
Nov 25, 2020	0.2%	0.8%	3.8%	-0.6%
Oct 27, 2020	3.4%	0.1%	0.9%	3.3%
Sep 25, 2020	0.7%	2.4%	10.4%	-1.7%
Aug 26, 2020	9.9%	4.6%	9.7%	5.3%
Jul 27, 2020	9.2%	4%	15.2%	5.2%
Jun 25, 2020	15.5%	5.9%	-17.1%	9.6%
May 28, 2020	-16.2%	-16.2%	-17.4%
Apr 24, 2020	-15.8%	-8.6%	-0.2%	-7.2%
Mar 25, 2020	0.1%	-0.9%	3.6%	1%
Feb 27, 2020	3.6%	1.3%	-1.9%	2.3%
Jan 28, 2020	-2.5%	0.5%	-0.5%	-3%
Dec 23, 2019	0.8%	0%	0%	0.8%
Nov 27, 2019	0.1%	-0.3%	-1.8%	0.4%
Oct 24, 2019	-1.2%	1.9%	-0.9%	-3.1%
Sep 27, 2019	-0.6%	0.1%	1.3%	-0.7%
Aug 26, 2019	1.4%	0.1%	3.1%	1.3%
Jul 25, 2019	3.1%	1.3%	-1.2%	1.8%
Jun 26, 2019	-0.6%	1.4%	-3.3%	-2%
May 24, 2019	-2.5%	-2%	0.1%	-0.5%
Apr 25, 2019	2.3%	0.1%	-1.7%	2.2%
Apr 02, 2019	-1.9%	0.1%	0.4%	-2%
Mar 13, 2019	0.7%	-2%	2.2%	2.7%
Feb 21, 2019	1.8%	0.4%	0%	1.4%
Dec 21, 2018	-0.1%	1.2%	-1.4%	-1.3%
Nov 21, 2018	-1.2%	0.1%	-1.4%	-1.3%
Oct 25, 2018	-0.6%	0.1%	2.5%	-0.7%
Sep 27, 2018	2.6%	0.8%	-0.6%	1.8%
Aug 24, 2018	-1%	0.8%	1.2%	-1.8%
Jul 26, 2018	1.5%	1.2%	-1.4%	0.3%
Jun 27, 2018	-1.5%	-1%	-1.5%	-0.5%
May 25, 2018	-1.9%	-1%	4.3%	-0.9%
Apr 26, 2018	2.8%	1.1%	3%	1.7%
Mar 23, 2018	2.5%	2.3%	-2.5%	0.2%
Feb 27, 2018	-2.7%	0.3%	2.2%	-3%
Jan 26, 2018	2.2%	0.3%	1.5%	1.9%
Dec 22, 2017	1%	0.9%	0%	0.1%
Nov 22, 2017	-0.8%	0.9%	2.4%	-1.7%
Oct 25, 2017	2%	1.5%	2.6%	0.5%
Sep 27, 2017	2.2%	1%	-7.9%	1.2%
Aug 25, 2017	-7.8%	-4%	6.4%	-3.8%
Jul 27, 2017	6.7%	0.1%	0.4%	6.6%
Jun 26, 2017	-0.6%	0.5%	-0.9%	-1.1%
May 26, 2017	-0.8%	0.4%	1.1%	-1.2%
Apr 27, 2017	0.1%	-1.04%	2.7%	1.14%
Mar 24, 2017	2.1%	-0.86%	2.1%	2.96%
Feb 27, 2017	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%	-0.1%
Jan 27, 2017	1.7%	0.3%	-6.8%	1.4%