Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Bank of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

Forecast: 12

Previous/Revision:

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 10

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index measures business sentiment among large manufacturing firms in Japan, focusing on the current and future outlook for production, employment, and investment. It is a crucial indicator of economic health, encompassing key areas such as business conditions, capital investment plans, and employment trends.

Frequency

The Tankan report is released quarterly, with preliminary figures typically published in early January, April, July, and October.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Tankan Index as it serves as a gauge of economic activity and business confidence in Japan, impacting both the Japanese yen (JPY) and Japanese equities. Higher-than-expected results can lead to bullish sentiment in financial markets, while weaker data may induce bearish reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The Tankan Index is calculated based on a survey of approximately 9,500 large and medium-sized manufacturing firms, which evaluate their business conditions and forecast future performance. The responses are aggregated into a diffusion index, where a value above zero indicates more firms view conditions as favorable than unfavorable.

Description

The Tankan report features preliminary estimates for sentiment, which are based on feedback collected from firms a few weeks before publication and may indicate trends earlier than final figures, which are released later and reflect a more complete picture. Traders focus on the diffusion index value, where a value above zero signifies an optimistic outlook among manufacturers, and the month-over-month changes can highlight shifts in business sentiment.

Additional Notes

This index acts as a coincident indicator, reflecting the current state of the economy while anticipating future trends. It is often compared to leading indicators, such as PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), providing insights into manufacturing activities and overall economic momentum.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 31, 2025	12	12	14
Dec 12, 2024	14	12	13	2
Sep 30, 2024	13	13	13
Jun 30, 2024	13	12	11	1
Mar 31, 2024	11	10	13	1
Dec 12, 2023	12	10	9	2
Oct 01, 2023	9	6	5	3
Jul 02, 2023	5	3	1	2
Apr 02, 2023	1	3	7	-2
Dec 13, 2022	7	6	8	1
Oct 02, 2022	8	11	9	-3
Jun 30, 2022	9	13	14	-4
Mar 31, 2022	14	12	18	2
Dec 12, 2021	18	19	18	-1
Sep 30, 2021	18	13	14	5
Jun 30, 2021	14	15	5	-1
Mar 31, 2021	5	0	-10	5
Dec 13, 2020	-10	-15	-27	5
Sep 30, 2020	-27	-23	-34	-4
Jun 30, 2020	-34	-31	-8	-3
Mar 31, 2020	-8	-10	0	2
Dec 12, 2019	0	2	5	-2
Sep 30, 2019	5	2	7	3
Jun 30, 2019	7	9	12	-2
Mar 31, 2019	12	13	19	-1
Dec 13, 2018	19	17	19	2
Sep 30, 2018	19	22	21	-3
Jul 01, 2018	21	22	24	-1
Apr 01, 2018	24	25	26	-1
Dec 14, 2017	25	24	22	1
Oct 01, 2017	22	18	17	4
Jul 02, 2017	17	15	12	2
Apr 02, 2017	12	14	10	-2
Dec 13, 2016	10	10	6
Oct 02, 2016	6	7	6	-1
Jun 30, 2016	6	4	6	2
Mar 31, 2016	6	8	12	-2
Dec 13, 2015	12	11	12	1
Oct 01, 2015	12	13	15	-1
Jul 01, 2015	15	12	12	3