Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Swiss National Bank

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The SECO Economic Forecasts measure the projected performance of the Swiss economy, specifically assessing macroeconomic variables like GDP growth, inflation, employment, and sectoral developments. This national indicator provides crucial insights into the expected health of Switzerland's economy over the coming quarters, allowing stakeholders to gauge potential trends in key economic capacities.

Frequency

These forecasts are released biannually in spring and autumn, providing both preliminary estimates and final figures, with the autumn report typically published in late October.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the SECO Economic Forecasts as they significantly influence expectations for the Swiss Franc (CHF), Swiss equities, and bond markets. Positive forecasts may indicate stronger economic performance, bolstering the CHF and equity prices, while weaker forecasts can result in bearish sentiment across financial assets, highlighting the forecasts’ importance for strategic decision-making.

What Is It Derived From?

The SECO Economic Forecasts are derived from a combination of quantitative models, expert analysis, and various economic indicators, including past GDP growth rates, inflation patterns, and employment figures. The forecasts rely on comprehensive data collection from national and international sources, incorporating insights from industry experts and surveys of key economic sectors.

Description

The SECO Economic Forecasts provide a structured outlook on various economic indicators, most notably focusing on growth trends, inflation forecasts, and employment levels, which are critical for formulating economic policy. The preliminary version reflects initial projections subject to revision, while the final data offers a more accurate and authoritative overview, setting context for financial markets that often respond eagerly to timely information.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves primarily as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current economic conditions while forecasting potential future trends. Moreover, the SECO forecasts are also beneficial for comparing Switzerland's economic outlook with that of its European neighbors, thereby providing broader insights into regional economic dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CHF, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CHF, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation expectations or economic support is usually good for the CHF but bad for Stocks due to lower expected earnings growth.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise