United States Retail Sales MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.1%

USD

Actual:

0.1%

Forecast: 0%

Previous/Revision:

1.7%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

United States Retail Sales Month-over-Month (MoM) measures the total receipts of retail stores, providing a comprehensive indicator of consumer spending patterns. It primarily focuses on the production and economic strength of the retail sector, assessing key areas related to consumer demand, purchasing behavior, and overall economic health.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the advance report timeline around the midpoint of the following month, presenting preliminary figures that may be revised later.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor retail sales data as it reflects consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth in the United States, influencing key assets such as the USD, equities, and bonds. Higher-than-expected retail sales results often generate bullish sentiment in the markets, while disappointing figures may lead to bearish trends and adjustments in economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The retail sales figure is derived from a monthly survey that collects data from approximately 13,000 retail and food services establishments across the country. This includes various types of retailers, and the data is weighted to accurately reflect their respective sales contributions to the broader economy.

Description

Retail Sales MoM is presented as a monthly figure, allowing for an analysis of short-term consumer trends and immediate economic shifts. The preliminary data is subject to revisions, providing essential insights into evolving consumer behavior, and can signal shifts in broader economic dynamics.

Additional Notes

Retail sales are considered a coincident economic indicator, moving in parallel with economic conditions. This report often correlates with other indicators of consumer health and spending, such as personal savings rates and consumer confidence indices, thereby providing a more holistic view of the economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	0.1%	0%	1.7%	0.1%
Apr 16, 2025	1.4%	1.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar 17, 2025	0.2%	0.6%	-1.2%	-0.4%
Feb 14, 2025	-0.9%	-0.1%	0.7%	-0.8%
Jan 16, 2025	0.4%	0.6%	0.8%	-0.2%
Dec 17, 2024	0.7%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Nov 15, 2024	0.4%	0.3%	0.8%	0.1%
Oct 17, 2024	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 17, 2024	0.1%	-0.2%	1.1%	0.3%
Aug 15, 2024	1%	0.3%	-0.2%	0.7%
Jul 16, 2024	0%	0%	0.3%
Jun 18, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
May 15, 2024	0%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.4%
Apr 15, 2024	0.7%	0.3%	0.9%	0.4%
Mar 14, 2024	0.6%	0.8%	-1.1%	-0.2%
Feb 15, 2024	-0.8%	-0.1%	0.4%	-0.7%
Jan 17, 2024	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
Dec 14, 2023	0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.4%
Nov 15, 2023	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.9%	0.2%
Oct 17, 2023	0.7%	0.3%	0.8%	0.4%
Sep 14, 2023	0.6%	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%
Aug 15, 2023	0.7%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%
Jul 18, 2023	0.2%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.3%
Jun 15, 2023	0.3%	-0.1%	0.4%	0.4%
May 16, 2023	0.4%	0.8%	-0.7%	-0.4%
Apr 14, 2023	-1%	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.6%
Mar 15, 2023	-0.4%	-0.3%	3.2%	-0.1%
Feb 15, 2023	3%	1.8%	-1.1%	1.2%
Jan 18, 2023	-1.1%	-0.8%	-1%	-0.3%
Dec 15, 2022	-0.6%	-0.1%	1.3%	-0.5%
Nov 16, 2022	1.3%	1%	0%	0.3%
Oct 14, 2022	0%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.2%
Sep 15, 2022	0.3%	0%	-0.4%	0.3%
Aug 17, 2022	0%	0.1%	0.8%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2022	1%	0.8%	-0.1%	0.2%
Jun 15, 2022	-0.3%	0.2%	0.7%	-0.5%
May 17, 2022	0.9%	0.9%	1.4%
Apr 14, 2022	0.5%	0.6%	0.8%	-0.1%
Mar 16, 2022	0.3%	0.4%	4.9%	-0.1%
Feb 16, 2022	3.8%	2%	-2.5%	1.8%
Jan 14, 2022	-1.9%	0%	0.2%	-1.9%
Dec 15, 2021	0.3%	0.8%	1.8%	-0.5%
Nov 16, 2021	1.7%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%
Oct 15, 2021	0.7%	-0.2%	0.9%	0.9%
Sep 16, 2021	0.7%	-0.8%	-1.8%	1.5%
Aug 17, 2021	-1.1%	-0.3%	0.7%	-0.8%
Jul 16, 2021	0.6%	-0.4%	-1.7%	1%
Jun 15, 2021	-1.3%	-0.8%	0.9%	-0.5%
May 14, 2021	0%	1%	10.7%	-1%
Apr 15, 2021	9.8%	5.9%	-2.7%	3.9%
Mar 16, 2021	-3%	-0.5%	7.6%	-2.5%
Feb 17, 2021	5.3%	1.1%	-1%	4.2%
Jan 15, 2021	-0.7%	0%	-1.4%	-0.7%
Dec 16, 2020	-1.1%	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.8%
Nov 17, 2020	0.3%	0.5%	1.6%	-0.2%
Oct 16, 2020	1.9%	0.7%	0.6%	1.2%
Sep 16, 2020	0.6%	1%	0.9%	-0.4%
Aug 14, 2020	1.2%	1.9%	8.4%	-0.7%
Jul 16, 2020	7.5%	5%	18.2%	2.5%
Jun 16, 2020	17.7%	8%	-14.7%	9.7%
May 15, 2020	-16.4%	-12%	-8.3%	-4.4%
Apr 15, 2020	-8.7%	-8%	-0.4%	-0.7%
Mar 17, 2020	-0.5%	0.2%	0.6%	-0.7%
Feb 14, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Jan 16, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Dec 13, 2019	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.3%
Nov 15, 2019	0.3%	0.2%	-0.3%	0.1%
Oct 16, 2019	-0.3%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.6%
Sep 13, 2019	0.4%	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Aug 15, 2019	0.7%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
Jul 16, 2019	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%
Jun 14, 2019	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%	-0.1%
May 15, 2019	-0.2%	0.2%	1.7%	-0.4%
Apr 18, 2019	1.6%	0.9%	-0.2%	0.7%
Apr 01, 2019	-0.2%	0.3%	0.7%	-0.5%
Mar 11, 2019	0.2%	0%	-1.6%	0.2%
Feb 14, 2019	-1.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-1.4%
Dec 14, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	1.1%
Nov 15, 2018	0.8%	0.5%	-0.1%	0.3%
Oct 15, 2018	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%	-0.5%
Sep 14, 2018	0.1%	0.4%	0.7%	-0.3%
Aug 15, 2018	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Jul 16, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	1.3%
Jun 14, 2018	0.8%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
May 15, 2018	0.3%	0.3%	0.8%
Apr 16, 2018	0.6%	0.4%	-0.1%	0.2%
Mar 14, 2018	-0.1%	0.3%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Feb 14, 2018	-0.3%	0.2%	0%	-0.5%
Jan 12, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	0.9%
Dec 14, 2017	0.8%	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%
Nov 15, 2017	0.2%	0%	1.9%	0.2%
Oct 13, 2017	1.6%	1.7%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2017	-0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.3%
Aug 15, 2017	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
Jul 14, 2017	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.3%
Jun 14, 2017	-0.3%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.4%
May 12, 2017	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%	-0.2%
Apr 14, 2017	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Mar 15, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%
Feb 15, 2017	0.4%	0.1%	1%	0.3%
Jan 13, 2017	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 14, 2016	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.2%
Nov 15, 2016	0.8%	0.6%	1%	0.2%
Oct 14, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	-0.2%
Sep 15, 2016	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
Aug 12, 2016	0%	0.4%	0.8%	-0.4%
Jul 15, 2016	0.6%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
Jun 14, 2016	0.5%	0.3%	1.3%	0.2%
May 13, 2016	1.3%	0.7%	-0.3%	0.6%
Apr 13, 2016	-0.3%	0.1%	0%	-0.4%
Mar 15, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Feb 12, 2016	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Jan 15, 2016	-0.1%	0%	0.4%	-0.1%
Dec 11, 2015	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 13, 2015	0.1%	0.3%	0%	-0.2%
Oct 14, 2015	0.1%	0.2%	0%	-0.1%
Sep 15, 2015	0.2%	0.3%	0.7%	-0.1%
Aug 13, 2015	0.6%	0.5%	0%	0.1%
Jul 14, 2015	-0.3%	0.3%	1%	-0.6%
Jun 11, 2015	1.2%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%
May 13, 2015	0%	0.2%	1.1%	-0.2%