United States Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: US Department of Agriculture

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.02B

Actual:

1.24B

Forecast: 1.22B

Previous/Revision:

1.57B

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The United States Quarterly Grain Stocks report specifically measures the total amount of wheat stored at the end of the quarter, providing insights into wheat production, consumption, and inventory levels. This report is crucial for understanding supply-demand dynamics in the wheat market, including consumption trends, storage capacities, and potential implications for prices.

Frequency

This report is released quarterly, typically about the last week of the month following the end of a quarter, and provides final figures based on comprehensive data collection and analysis.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Quarterly Grain Stocks report as it significantly impacts wheat prices and, by extension, influences related financial assets such as agricultural commodities and currency valuations. An unexpected increase or decrease in stocks can affect market sentiment and trading strategies, leading to volatility in the commodities market.

What Is It Derived From?

The report is derived from a combination of surveys sent to grain elevator operators, farmers, and processors across the United States, along with administrative data from the USDA. This method ensures a comprehensive dataset that accurately reflects the quantities of wheat held in storage and used for different purposes.

Description

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report differentiates between various types of stocks, including on-farm and off-farm inventory, indicating how much wheat is available to meet demand. This data is essential for stakeholders in agriculture, allowing them to make informed decisions regarding planting, sales, and pricing strategies based on supply levels.

Additional Notes

This report serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current market conditions and helping to gauge the health of the agricultural sector. Monitoring grain stocks is also critical for comparing trends in wheat against other crops or international markets, providing context for pricing and supply strategies.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Wheat prices. Lower than expected: Bearish for Wheat prices. A dovish tone: Signaling lower wheat supplies or increasing demand, is usually good for Wheat prices but bad for broader commodities stocks due to potential supply constraints.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 31, 2025	1.24B	1.22B	1.57B	0.02B
Jan 10, 2025	1.57B		1.98B
Sep 30, 2024	1.98B		0.702B
Jun 28, 2024	0.702B		1.087B
Mar 28, 2024	1.087B	1.044B	1.41B	0.043B
Jan 12, 2024	1.41B	1.387B	1.78B	0.023B
Sep 29, 2023	1.78B	1.772B	0.58B	0.008B
Jun 30, 2023	0.58B	0.611B	0.946B	-0.031B
Mar 31, 2023	0.946B	0.934B	1.28B	0.012B
Jan 12, 2023	1.28B	1.344B	1.776B	-0.064B
Sep 30, 2022	1.776B	1.776B	0.66B
Jun 30, 2022	0.66B	0.655B	1.025B	0.005B
Mar 31, 2022	1.025B	1.045B	1.39B	-0.02B
Jan 12, 2022	1.39B		1.78B
Sep 30, 2021	1.78B	1.852B	0.844B	-0.072B
Jun 30, 2021	0.844B	0.859B	1.314B	-0.015B
Mar 31, 2021	1.314B	1.272B	1.674B	0.042B