United States Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: US Department of Agriculture

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.01B

Actual:

1.91B

Forecast: 1.9B

Previous/Revision:

3.1B

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report measures the volume of soybeans held in storage in the United States, assessing the supply and demand balance in the agricultural markets. Its primary focus is on inventory levels, which are crucial for understanding market conditions, pricing, and potential future production impacts.

Frequency

The report is released quarterly, typically around the last working day of the first month following the quarter end, providing revised estimates of grain stocks.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Quarterly Grain Stocks report as it provides insight into the supply levels of soybeans, which can influence prices in commodity markets. Significant deviations from the expected stock levels can impact the value of related financial instruments, including currencies, agricultural stocks, and commodities.

What Is It Derived From?

The data is derived from a survey conducted by the USDA, gathering information from farmers, grain elevators, and other storage facilities about their current inventories. The calculations are based on a combination of reported stocks from various survey respondents and historical trends to ensure accurate assessments.

Description

Preliminary reports provide early estimates of soybean stocks and are subject to revisions, while final reports offer more accurate figures that reflect the true inventory levels. The data is typically presented in absolute numbers of bushels held, which allows traders to gauge the overall supply situation in relation to usage and exports.

Additional Notes

This report serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current agricultural market conditions and is compared with other related indicators such as planting and yield data. It plays a critical role in understanding broader trends in the agricultural sector, as fluctuations in grain stocks can impact prices and market expectations globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Soybean futures, Bearish for agricultural stocks as increased supply might push prices lower. Lower than expected: Bearish for Soybean futures, Bullish for agricultural stocks due to potential supply constraints driving prices up.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 31, 2025	1.91B	1.9B	3.1B	0.01B
Jan 10, 2025	3.1B		0.342B
Sep 30, 2024	0.342B		0.969B
Jun 28, 2024	0.969B		1.845B
Mar 28, 2024	1.845B	1.828B	3B	0.017B
Jan 12, 2024	3B	2.975B	0.268B	0.025B
Sep 29, 2023	0.268B	0.242B	0.796B	0.026B
Jun 30, 2023	0.796B	0.812B	1.685B	-0.016B
Mar 31, 2023	1.685B	1.742B	3.022B	-0.057B
Jan 12, 2023	3.022B	3.132B	0.274B	-0.11B
Sep 30, 2022	0.274B	0.242B	0.971B	0.032B
Jun 30, 2022	0.971B	0.965B	1.931B	0.006B
Mar 31, 2022	1.931B	1.902B	3.149B	0.029B
Jan 12, 2022	3.149B		0.256B
Sep 30, 2021	0.256B	0.174B	0.767B	0.082B
Jun 30, 2021	0.767B	0.787B	1.564B	-0.02B
Mar 31, 2021	1.564B	1.534B	2.933B	0.03B