United States PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.266

Actual:

131.634

Forecast: 131.9

Previous/Revision:

131.5

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 131.8

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) Ex Food, Energy, and Trade measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding volatile categories like food and energy. Its primary focus is on gauging inflationary pressures at the wholesale level, assessing key areas such as price trends in manufacturing, services, and overall production.

Frequency

The PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade is released on a monthly basis and provides both preliminary and final figures, typically published on the second or third week of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely watch the PPI as it serves as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, impacting monetary policy expectations. Stronger-than-expected readings can bolster confidence in economic strength, leading to positive movements in the USD and equities, while weaker outcomes may raise concerns about economic stagnation.

What Is It Derived From?

The PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade is calculated using data collected from a wide range of producers across various sectors, encompassing surveys from industries like manufacturing, agriculture, and services. The index employs diffusion indices and specific weighting to ensure accurate representation of price changes.

Description

Preliminary data reflects early estimates of price movements based on limited information and may be subject to revision, whereas final data provides a more accurate and comprehensive indication after a thorough analysis. The PPI is typically reported on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, allowing for quick identification of recent price trends, without the influence of seasonal variations that annual comparisons would introduce.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a leading economic measure as it often anticipates future consumer price trends, making it significant for inflation forecasting. It relates closely to other inflation measurements, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and offers insights into broader economic conditions both within the United States and globally.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 13, 2024	131.634	131.9	131.5	-0.266
May 14, 2024	131.5	131.3	131	0.2
Apr 11, 2024	131	131.2	130.7	-0.2