Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.2%

EUR

Actual:

0.6%

Forecast: 0.4%

Previous/Revision:

0.5%

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) Advance measures the annual change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices, explicitly indicating the growth or contraction of the Italian economy over the past year. It assesses key areas such as production, consumption, and investment across various sectors, providing a comprehensive view of economic health.

Frequency

This economic indicator is released quarterly, with preliminary estimates typically published approximately 45 days after the end of the reference quarter, serving as an advance measure of economic performance.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the GDP Growth Rate as it is a crucial indicator of economic performance, influencing market sentiment and investment strategies, particularly for the euro and Italian equities. Stronger-than-expected growth can lead to appreciation of the euro and increased investor confidence, while lower figures may provoke bearish sentiment in both currency and stock markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP Growth Rate is derived from extensive national accounts data, incorporating inputs from various sectors, including manufacturing, services, and agriculture. It relies on data collection from surveys and official statistics gathered by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), using established economic methodologies to ensure accuracy.

Description

Preliminary reports of Italy's GDP may be subject to future revisions as more comprehensive data is collected and analyzed, with final figures released later for greater accuracy. The YoY reporting approach is utilized to eliminate seasonal variations, providing insight into long-term economic trends rather than short-term fluctuations.

Additional Notes

The GDP Growth Rate serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting the current state of the economy, and relates closely to other indicators such as employment rates and consumer spending. In the context of the broader European economy, Italy's performance is often compared to other eurozone countries, influencing regional economic policy and market dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	0.6%	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Jan 30, 2025	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.1%
Oct 30, 2024	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	-0.3%
Jul 30, 2024	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%
Apr 30, 2024	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Jan 30, 2024	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
Oct 31, 2023	0%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2023	0.6%	0.9%	1.9%	-0.3%
Apr 28, 2023	1.8%	1.4%	1.4%	0.4%
Jan 31, 2023	1.7%	1.6%	2.7%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2022	2.6%	2%	4.9%	0.6%
Jul 29, 2022	4.6%	3.7%	6.2%	0.9%
Apr 29, 2022	5.8%	5.8%	6.2%
Jan 31, 2022	6.4%	6.2%	3.9%	0.2%
Oct 29, 2021	3.8%	3%	17%	0.8%
Jul 30, 2021	17.3%	15.6%	-0.7%	1.7%
Apr 30, 2021	-1.4%	-1.6%	-6.6%	0.2%
Feb 02, 2021	-6.6%	-6.7%	-5.1%	0.1%
Oct 30, 2020	-4.7%	-8.7%	-17.9%	4%
Jul 31, 2020	-17.3%	-18.7%	-5.5%	1.4%
Apr 30, 2020	-4.8%	-5.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Jan 31, 2020	0%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
Oct 31, 2019	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2019	0%	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
Apr 30, 2019	0.1%	-0.1%	0%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2019	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	-0.2%
Oct 30, 2018	0.8%	0.9%	1.2%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2018	1.1%	1.2%	1.4%	-0.1%
May 02, 2018	1.4%	1.4%	1.6%
Feb 14, 2018	1.6%	1.6%	1.7%
Nov 14, 2017	1.8%	1.8%	1.5%
Aug 16, 2017	1.5%	1.4%	1.2%	0.1%
May 16, 2017	0.8%	0.8%	1%
Feb 14, 2017	1.1%	1%	1.1%	0.1%
Nov 15, 2016	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%
Aug 12, 2016	0.7%	0.8%	1%	-0.1%
May 13, 2016	1%	0.9%	1.1%	0.1%
Feb 12, 2016	1%	1.2%	0.8%	-0.2%
Nov 13, 2015	0.9%	1%	0.6%	-0.1%
Aug 14, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
May 13, 2015	0%	-0.2%	-0.5%	0.2%