United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

USD

Actual:

-4

Forecast: -11

Previous/Revision:

-26.4

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 5

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index measures the health of the manufacturing sector in the Greater Philadelphia area, focusing on various aspects such as production levels, new orders, shipments, employment, and inventory changes. It serves as a regional indicator reflecting business perceptions and expectations about manufacturing activity, which can provide insights into broader national economic trends.

Frequency

This index is released on a monthly basis, typically on the third Thursday of each month, providing either preliminary estimates or final figures that may be subject to revision.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index due to its significance as an indicator of economic expansion or contraction within the manufacturing sector, which can influence financial markets. Stronger-than-expected readings may bolster confidence in the economy, positively impacting currencies such as the USD and equity markets, while disappointing results could lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted among manufacturing executives in the Philadelphia region, which captures their responses regarding business conditions such as employment, inventory levels, and new orders. A diffusion index is used to calculate the results, where values above zero indicate expansion and values below signal contraction, enhancing the reliability of the data.

Description

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is released as both preliminary and final reports, with preliminary figures based on early responses from survey participants and potentially subject to further revisions. Final data provides a more accurate reflection of the manufacturing sector's health, which may lead to a market reassessment of economic conditions, often resulting in stronger market reactions to preliminary data due to its timely nature.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a leading economic indicator, as it often provides insights into future manufacturing activity before other national reports are released. Its movements are closely watched in relation to similar manufacturing indexes, such as the ISM Manufacturing Index, allowing analysts to gauge regional variations in economic performance.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	-4	-11	-26.4	7
Apr 17, 2025	-26.4	2	12.5	-28.4
Mar 20, 2025	12.5	8.5	18.1	4
Feb 20, 2025	18.1	20	44.3	-1.9
Jan 16, 2025	44.3	-5	-10.9	49.3
Dec 19, 2024	-16.4	3	-5.5	-19.4
Nov 21, 2024	-5.5	8	10.3	-13.5
Oct 17, 2024	10.3	3	1.7	7.3
Sep 19, 2024	1.7	-1	-7	2.7
Aug 15, 2024	-7	7	13.9	-14
Jul 18, 2024	13.9	2.9	1.3	11
Jun 20, 2024	1.3	5	4.5	-3.7
May 16, 2024	4.5	8	15.5	-3.5
Apr 18, 2024	15.5	1.5	3.2	14
Mar 21, 2024	3.2	-2.3	5.2	5.5
Feb 15, 2024	5.2	-8	-10.6	13.2
Jan 18, 2024	-10.6	-7	-12.8	-3.6
Dec 21, 2023	-10.5	-3	-5.9	-7.5
Nov 16, 2023	-5.9	-9	-9	3.1
Oct 19, 2023	-9	-6.4	-13.5	-2.6
Sep 21, 2023	-13.5	-0.7	12	-12.8
Aug 17, 2023	12	-10	-13.5	22
Jul 20, 2023	-13.5	-10	-13.7	-3.5
Jun 15, 2023	-13.7	-14	-10.4	0.3
May 18, 2023	-10.4	-19.8	-31.3	9.4
Apr 20, 2023	-31.3	-19.2	-23.2	-12.1
Mar 16, 2023	-23.2	-15.6	-24.3	-7.6
Feb 16, 2023	-24.3	-7.4	-8.9	-16.9
Jan 19, 2023	-8.9	-11	-13.7	2.1
Dec 15, 2022	-13.8	-10	-19.4	-3.8
Nov 17, 2022	-19.4	-6.2	-8.7	-13.2
Oct 20, 2022	-8.7	-5	-9.9	-3.7
Sep 15, 2022	-9.9	2.8	6.2	-12.7
Aug 18, 2022	6.2	-5	-12.3	11.2
Jul 21, 2022	-12.3	0	-3.3	-12.3
Jun 16, 2022	-3.3	5.5	2.6	-8.8
May 19, 2022	2.6	16	17.6	-13.4
Apr 21, 2022	17.6	21	27.4	-3.4
Mar 17, 2022	27.4	15	16	12.4
Feb 17, 2022	16	20	23.2	-4
Jan 20, 2022	23.2	20	15.4	3.2
Dec 16, 2021	15.4	30	39	-14.6
Nov 18, 2021	39	24	23.8	15
Oct 21, 2021	23.8	25	30.7	-1.2
Sep 16, 2021	30.7	18.8	19.4	11.9
Aug 19, 2021	19.4	23	21.9	-3.6
Jul 15, 2021	21.9	28	30.7	-6.1
Jun 17, 2021	30.7	31	31.5	-0.3
May 20, 2021	31.5	43	50.2	-11.5
Apr 15, 2021	50.2	42	44.5	8.2
Mar 18, 2021	51.8	23	23.1	28.8
Feb 18, 2021	23.1	20	26.5	3.1
Jan 21, 2021	26.5	12	9.1	14.5
Dec 17, 2020	11.1	20	26.3	-8.9
Nov 19, 2020	26.3	22	32.3	4.3
Oct 15, 2020	32.3	14	15	18.3
Sep 17, 2020	15	15	17.2
Aug 20, 2020	17.2	21	24.1	-3.8
Jul 16, 2020	24.1	20	27.5	4.1
Jun 18, 2020	27.5	-23	-43.1	50.5
May 21, 2020	-43.1	-41.5	-56.6	-1.6
Apr 16, 2020	-56.6	-30	-12.7	-26.6
Mar 19, 2020	-12.7	10	36.7	-22.7
Feb 20, 2020	36.7	12	17	24.7
Jan 16, 2020	17	3.8	2.4	13.2
Dec 19, 2019	0.3	8	10.4	-7.7
Nov 21, 2019	10.4	7	5.6	3.4
Oct 17, 2019	5.6	8	12	-2.4
Sep 19, 2019	12	11	16.8	1
Aug 15, 2019	16.8	10	21.8	6.8
Jul 18, 2019	21.8	5	0.3	16.8
Jun 20, 2019	0.3	11	16.6	-10.7
May 16, 2019	16.6	9	8.5	7.6
Apr 18, 2019	8.5	10.4	13.7	-1.9
Mar 21, 2019	13.7	4.5	-4.1	9.2
Feb 21, 2019	-4.1	14	17	-18.1
Jan 17, 2019	17	10	9.1	7
Dec 20, 2018	9.4	15	12.9	-5.6
Nov 15, 2018	12.9	20	22.2	-7.1
Oct 18, 2018	22.2	20	22.9	2.2
Sep 20, 2018	22.9	17	11.9	5.9
Aug 16, 2018	11.9	22	25.7	-10.1
Jul 19, 2018	25.7	21.5	19.9	4.2
Jun 21, 2018	19.9	28.9	34.4	-9
May 17, 2018	34.4	21	23.2	13.4
Apr 19, 2018	23.2	20.1	22.3	3.1
Mar 15, 2018	22.3	23	25.8	-0.7
Feb 15, 2018	25.8	21.1	22.2	4.7
Jan 18, 2018	22.2	25	27.9	-2.8
Dec 21, 2017	26.2	21.5	22.7	4.7
Nov 16, 2017	22.7	25	27.9	-2.3
Oct 19, 2017	27.9	22	23.8	5.9
Sep 21, 2017	23.8	17.2	18.9	6.6
Aug 17, 2017	18.9	18.5	19.5	0.4
Jul 20, 2017	19.5	24	27.6	-4.5
Jun 15, 2017	27.6	24	38.8	3.6
May 18, 2017	38.8	19.5	22	19.3
Apr 20, 2017	22	25	32.8	-3
Mar 16, 2017	32.8	30	43.3	2.8
Feb 16, 2017	43.3	18	23.6	25.3
Jan 19, 2017	23.6	25	19.7	-1.4
Dec 15, 2016	21.5	9	7.6	12.5
Nov 17, 2016	7.6	8	9.7	-0.4
Oct 20, 2016	9.7	5.3	12.8	4.4
Sep 15, 2016	12.8	1	2	11.8
Aug 18, 2016	2	2	-2.9
Jul 21, 2016	-2.9	5	4.7	-7.9
Jun 16, 2016	4.7	1.1	-1.8	3.6
May 19, 2016	-1.8	3.5	-1.6	-5.3
Apr 21, 2016	-1.6	8.9	12.4	-10.5
Mar 17, 2016	12.4	-1.7	-2.8	14.1
Feb 18, 2016	-2.8	-3	-3.5	0.2
Jan 21, 2016	-3.5	-5	-10.2	1.5
Dec 17, 2015	-5.9	1.5	1.9	-7.4
Nov 19, 2015	1.9	-1	-4.5	2.9
Oct 15, 2015	-4.5	-1	-6	-3.5
Sep 17, 2015	-6	6	8.3	-12
Aug 20, 2015	8.3	7	5.7	1.3
Jul 16, 2015	5.7	12	15.2	-6.3
Jun 18, 2015	15.2	8	6.7	7.2
May 21, 2015	6.7	8	7.5	-1.3