United Kingdom OBR Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Forecasts deliver comprehensive insights into the United Kingdom's economic outlook, measuring key indicators such as GDP growth, fiscal balance, inflation rates, and public debt levels. This forecast provides an analysis of anticipated economic performance and government finance, influencing policy decisions at the national level.

Frequency

The OBR Economic and Fiscal Forecasts are released biannually, with the forecasts typically published alongside the Autumn Statement in November and the Spring Budget in March, representing final figures that reflect the most accurate assessments available at their respective release times.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor OBR forecasts due to their significant implications for fiscal policy and macroeconomic conditions, impacting the British pound and market expectations for government bond yields. A more positive economic outlook can lead to bullish sentiments in equities, whereas warnings of economic downturns may invoke bearish reactions across financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The OBR forecasts are derived from a thorough analysis of national economic data, including macroeconomic indicators and tax revenue projections, as well as consultations with various stakeholders such as financial experts and government departments. The forecast employs econometric models to project future economic conditions, ensuring a robust assessment of the UK's fiscal landscape.

Description

The OBR Economic and Fiscal Forecasts characterize the future trajectory of the UK's economy, addressing pivotal areas such as growth predictions, sector performance, and budgeting implications. These forecasts differentiate between preliminary estimates and final projections, with preliminary data reflecting early assessments subject to adjustments, whereas final reports provide refined predictions after comprehensive data analysis.

Additional Notes

As a coincident economic measure, the OBR's forecasts serve to inform both government policy and market expectations, aligning closely with broader economic trends such as inflationary pressures and employment rates. By contextualizing forecasts within a global framework, these reports also facilitate comparisons with similar economic indicators from other regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise