China NBS General PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.7

Actual:

50.2

Forecast: 49.5

Previous/Revision:

51.4

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 50.4

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The NBS General PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) in China measures the economic health of the manufacturing and service sectors. It primarily assesses variables such as production levels, employment rates, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventory changes, indicating overall business conditions.

Frequency

The NBS General PMI is released monthly, typically on the first day of each month, providing preliminary estimates based on survey responses from purchasing managers across various sectors.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the NBS General PMI due to its significance in reflecting the economic landscape of China, which can impact global markets. A higher-than-expected PMI reading is generally seen as bullish for the Chinese yuan and equities, whereas lower readings may create bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The NBS General PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors, usually comprising about 3,000 respondents. The index uses a diffusion index approach where a value above 50 indicates expansion in activities, while a value below 50 signifies contraction.

Description

The NBS General PMI offers critical insights into China's economic performance, serving as a timely indicator of trends in production and business sentiment. Since the Chinese economy plays a pivotal role in global trade and growth, variations in the PMI can influence market expectations regarding global economic conditions.

Additional Notes

The PMI is considered a leading economic indicator, often forecasting expanding or contracting economic activity. Comparatively, it aligns with similar indexes from other countries, providing a cohesive view of global economic conditions and contributing to analyses of economic trends within Asia and beyond.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	50.2	49.5	51.4	0.7
Mar 31, 2025	51.4	50.8	51.1	0.6
Mar 01, 2025	51.1	50.5	50.1	0.6
Jan 27, 2025	50.1	52	52.2	-1.9
Dec 31, 2024	52.2	50.9	50.8	1.3
Nov 30, 2024	50.8	51	50.8	-0.2
Oct 31, 2024	50.8	50.6	50.4	0.2
Sep 30, 2024	50.4	50	50.1	0.4
Aug 31, 2024	50.1	49.9	50.2	0.2
Jul 31, 2024	50.2	50.1	50.5	0.1
Jun 30, 2024	50.5	50.7	51	-0.2
May 31, 2024	51	51.5	51.7	-0.5
Apr 30, 2024	51.7	52.4	52.7	-0.7
Mar 31, 2024	52.7	53	50.9	-0.3
Mar 01, 2024	50.9	51	50.9	-0.1
Jan 31, 2024	50.9	50.4	50.3	0.5
Dec 31, 2023	50.3	50.5	50.4	-0.2
Nov 30, 2023	50.4	51.7	50.7	-1.3
Oct 31, 2023	50.7	52.2	52	-1.5
Sep 30, 2023	52	52.6	51.3	-0.6
Aug 31, 2023	51.3	51	51.1	0.3
Jul 31, 2023	51.1	52	52.3	-0.9
Jun 30, 2023	52.3	52	52.9	0.3
May 31, 2023	52.9	54.2	54.4	-1.3
Apr 30, 2023	54.4	57.3	57	-2.9
Mar 31, 2023	57	55.1	56.4	1.9
Mar 01, 2023	56.4	53.7	52.9	2.7
Jan 31, 2023	52.9	46	42.6	6.9
Dec 31, 2022	42.6	49	47.1	-6.4
Nov 30, 2022	47.1	49.3	49	-2.2
Oct 31, 2022	49	50.8	50.9	-1.8
Sep 30, 2022	50.9	52	51.7	-1.1
Aug 31, 2022	51.7	50.6	52.5	1.1
Jul 31, 2022	52.5	55	54.1	-2.5
May 31, 2022	48.4	44	42.7	4.4
Apr 30, 2022	42.7	48.3	48.8	-5.6
Mar 31, 2022	48.8	49.9	51.2	-1.1
Mar 01, 2022	51.2	51.3	51	-0.1
Jan 30, 2022	51	52	52.2	-1
Dec 31, 2021	52.2	52.4	52.2	-0.2
Nov 30, 2021	52.2	50.5	50.8	1.7