Canada Unemployment Rate

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Statistics Canada

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

CAD

Actual:

6.9%

Forecast: 7.1%

Previous/Revision:

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The Canada Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. This indicator primarily focuses on labor market health by assessing employment levels, labor force participation, and job growth, with key measures including rates of jobless individuals and changes compared to previous periods.

Frequency

The unemployment rate is reported on a monthly basis and is typically released on the first Friday of each month, reflecting final figures from the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the unemployment rate as it serves as a crucial indicator of economic health, influencing consumer spending, economic growth, and monetary policy. A lower unemployment rate is generally bullish for currencies and equities, whereas a higher rate may indicate economic weakness and lead to bearish sentiments in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The unemployment rate is derived from the Labour Force Survey, which collects data from a sample of households across Canada, reflecting the employment status of individuals aged 15 and over. This survey includes a variety of respondent types, gathering insights about employment, unemployment, and job-seeking behaviors.

Description

The Canada Unemployment Rate is usually reported as a percentage, comparing the number of unemployed individuals actively seeking work to the overall labor force. Outcome changes are often analyzed month-over-month (MoM) and year-over-year (YoY) to identify trends and seasonal patterns, with YoY providing insight into long-term changes by mitigating seasonal effects.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often considered a lagging economic measure, trailing behind actual economic activity but providing essential feedback on employment trends. The unemployment rate is closely monitored alongside other labor market indicators such as job vacancy rates and participation rates, and it plays a significant role in broader economic analyses and forecasts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the CAD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 11, 2025	6.9%	7.1%	7%	-0.2%
Jun 06, 2025	7%	7%	6.9%
May 09, 2025	6.9%	6.8%	6.7%	0.1%
Apr 04, 2025	6.7%	6.7%	6.6%
Mar 07, 2025	6.6%	6.7%	6.6%	-0.1%
Feb 07, 2025	6.6%	6.8%	6.7%	-0.2%
Jan 10, 2025	6.7%	6.9%	6.8%	-0.2%
Dec 06, 2024	6.8%	6.6%	6.5%	0.2%
Nov 08, 2024	6.5%	6.6%	6.5%	-0.1%
Oct 11, 2024	6.5%	6.7%	6.6%	-0.2%
Sep 06, 2024	6.6%	6.5%	6.4%	0.1%
Aug 09, 2024	6.4%	6.5%	6.4%	-0.1%
Jul 05, 2024	6.4%	6.3%	6.2%	0.1%
Jun 07, 2024	6.2%	6.2%	6.1%
May 10, 2024	6.1%	6.2%	6.1%	-0.1%
Apr 05, 2024	6.1%	5.9%	5.8%	0.2%
Mar 11, 2024
Mar 08, 2024	5.8%	5.8%	5.7%
Feb 09, 2024	5.7%	5.9%	5.8%	-0.2%
Jan 05, 2024	5.8%	5.9%	5.8%	-0.1%
Dec 01, 2023	5.8%	5.8%	5.7%
Nov 03, 2023	5.7%	5.6%	5.5%	0.1%
Oct 06, 2023	5.5%	5.6%	5.5%	-0.1%
Sep 08, 2023	5.5%	5.6%	5.5%	-0.1%
Aug 04, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.4%
Jul 07, 2023	5.4%	5.3%	5.2%	0.1%
Jun 09, 2023	5.2%	5.1%	5%	0.1%
May 05, 2023	5%	5.1%	5%	-0.1%
Apr 06, 2023	5%	5.1%	5%	-0.1%
Mar 10, 2023	5%	5.1%	5%	-0.1%
Feb 10, 2023	5%	5.1%	5%	-0.1%
Jan 06, 2023	5%	5.2%	5.1%	-0.2%
Dec 02, 2022	5.1%	5.3%	5.2%	-0.2%
Nov 04, 2022	5.2%	5.3%	5.2%	-0.1%
Oct 07, 2022	5.2%	5.4%	5.4%	-0.2%
Sep 09, 2022	5.4%	5%	4.9%	0.4%
Aug 05, 2022	4.9%	5%	4.9%	-0.1%
Jul 08, 2022	4.9%	5.1%	5.1%	-0.2%
Jun 10, 2022	5.1%	5.2%	5.2%	-0.1%
May 06, 2022	5.2%	5.2%	5.3%
Apr 08, 2022	5.3%	5.3%	5.5%
Mar 11, 2022	5.5%	6.2%	6.5%	-0.7%
Feb 04, 2022	6.5%	6.2%	6%	0.3%
Jan 07, 2022	5.9%	6%	6%	-0.1%
Dec 03, 2021	6%	6.6%	6.7%	-0.6%
Nov 05, 2021	6.7%	6.8%	6.9%	-0.1%
Oct 08, 2021	6.9%	6.9%	7.1%
Sep 10, 2021	7.1%	7.3%	7.5%	-0.2%
Aug 06, 2021	7.5%	7.4%	7.8%	0.1%
Jul 09, 2021	7.8%	7.7%	8.2%	0.1%
Jun 04, 2021	8.2%	8.2%	8.1%
May 07, 2021	8.1%	7.8%	7.5%	0.3%
Apr 09, 2021	7.5%	8%	8.2%	-0.5%
Mar 12, 2021	8.2%	9.2%	9.4%	-1%
Feb 05, 2021	9.4%	8.9%	8.8%	0.5%
Jan 08, 2021	8.6%	8.6%	8.5%
Dec 04, 2020	8.5%	8.9%	8.9%	-0.4%
Nov 06, 2020	8.9%	8.8%	9%	0.1%
Oct 09, 2020	9%	9.7%	10.2%	-0.7%
Sep 04, 2020	10.2%	10.1%	10.9%	0.1%
Aug 07, 2020	10.9%	11%	12.3%	-0.1%
Jul 10, 2020	12.3%	12%	13.7%	0.3%
Jun 05, 2020	13.7%	15%	13%	-1.3%
May 08, 2020	13%	18%	7.8%	-5%
Apr 09, 2020	7.8%	7.2%	5.6%	0.6%
Mar 06, 2020	5.6%	5.6%	5.5%
Feb 07, 2020	5.5%	5.6%	5.6%	-0.1%
Jan 10, 2020	5.6%	5.8%	5.9%	-0.2%
Dec 06, 2019	5.9%	5.5%	5.5%	0.4%
Nov 08, 2019	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Oct 11, 2019	5.5%	5.7%	5.7%	-0.2%
Sep 06, 2019	5.7%	5.7%	5.7%
Aug 09, 2019	5.7%	5.5%	5.5%	0.2%
Jul 05, 2019	5.5%	5.5%	5.4%
Jun 07, 2019	5.4%	5.7%	5.7%	-0.3%
May 10, 2019	5.7%	5.8%	5.8%	-0.1%
Apr 05, 2019	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%
Mar 08, 2019	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%
Feb 08, 2019	5.8%	5.7%	5.6%	0.1%
Jan 04, 2019	5.6%	5.7%	5.6%	-0.1%
Dec 07, 2018	5.6%	5.8%	5.8%	-0.2%
Nov 02, 2018	5.8%	5.9%	5.9%	-0.1%
Oct 05, 2018	5.9%	5.9%	6%
Sep 07, 2018	6%	5.9%	5.8%	0.1%
Aug 10, 2018	5.8%	5.9%	6%	-0.1%
Jul 06, 2018	6%	5.8%	5.8%	0.2%
Jun 08, 2018	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%
May 11, 2018	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%
Apr 06, 2018	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%
Mar 09, 2018	5.8%	5.9%	5.9%	-0.1%
Feb 09, 2018	5.9%	5.8%	5.8%	0.1%
Jan 05, 2018	5.7%	6%	5.9%	-0.3%
Dec 01, 2017	5.9%	6.2%	6.3%	-0.3%
Nov 03, 2017	6.3%	6.2%	6.2%	0.1%
Oct 06, 2017	6.2%	6.3%	6.2%	-0.1%
Sep 08, 2017	6.2%	6.3%	6.3%	-0.1%
Aug 04, 2017	6.3%	6.5%	6.5%	-0.2%
Jul 07, 2017	6.5%	6.6%	6.6%	-0.1%
Jun 09, 2017	6.6%	6.6%	6.5%
May 05, 2017	6.5%	6.7%	6.7%	-0.2%
Apr 07, 2017	6.7%	6.7%	6.6%
Mar 10, 2017	6.6%	6.8%	6.8%	-0.2%
Feb 10, 2017	6.8%	6.9%	6.9%	-0.1%
Jan 06, 2017	6.9%	5.7%	6.8%	1.2%
Dec 02, 2016	6.8%	7%	7%	-0.2%
Nov 04, 2016	7%	7%	7%
Oct 07, 2016	7%	7%	7%
Sep 09, 2016	7%	6.9%	6.9%	0.1%
Aug 05, 2016	6.9%	6.9%	6.8%
Jul 08, 2016	6.8%	7%	6.9%	-0.2%
Jun 10, 2016	6.9%	7.1%	7.1%	-0.2%
May 06, 2016	7.1%	7.2%	7.1%	-0.1%
Apr 08, 2016	7.1%	7.3%	7.3%	-0.2%
Mar 11, 2016	7.3%	7.2%	7.2%	0.1%
Feb 05, 2016	7.2%	7.1%	7.1%	0.1%
Jan 08, 2016	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%
Dec 04, 2015	7.1%	7%	7%	0.1%
Nov 06, 2015	7%	7.1%	7.1%	-0.1%
Oct 09, 2015	7.1%	6.9%	7%	0.2%
Sep 04, 2015	7%	6.8%	6.8%	0.2%
Aug 07, 2015	6.8%	6.8%	6.8%
Jul 10, 2015	6.8%	6.9%	6.8%	-0.1%
Jun 05, 2015	6.8%	6.8%	6.8%
May 08, 2015	6.8%	6.9%	6.8%	-0.1%