United Kingdom MPs Vote on PM Election Call

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History

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Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom MPs' vote on a Prime Minister election call measures the parliamentary approval or disapproval regarding conducting an election for the Prime Minister. This event primarily focuses on political stability and governance, assessing the likelihood of government changes that can impact economic policies.

Frequency

The vote is held as needed when there is a significant political demand or crisis, with results typically released on the same day as the vote.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this event because changes in government can lead to shifts in fiscal and monetary policy, which directly affects key assets such as the British Pound (GBP), UK equities, and bond yields. A favorable vote for an election call may signal potential political instability, impacting market confidence and leading to fluctuations in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The outcome of the MPs' vote is derived from the majority decision among Members of Parliament who express their approval or disapproval through a formal voting process. The voting is typically conducted through a show of hands or division, based on party lines, and reflects the prevailing political sentiments within the parliament.

Description

The MPs' vote on a Prime Minister election call acts as a gauge of political consensus and public sentiment, reflecting both the support for the current government and the potential for future elections. It is a crucial indicator of governance and stability, influencing market sentiment and investment decisions given the importance of political leadership in shaping economic policy.

Additional Notes

This event serves as a leading economic measure since it can foreshadow changes in government that significantly impact economic conditions. The results are often compared to previous votes or political scenarios, highlighting the relationship between government stability and broader economic trends both domestically and internationally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower support for current policies, is usually bad for the GBP but good for Stocks due to anticipation of continued economic support.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise