China Mid-Autumn Holiday

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The China Mid-Autumn Holiday measures the impact of cultural practices on economic activity, focusing primarily on consumption patterns, retail sales, and travel during this festive occasion. Key indicators include spending on food, gifts, and travel, which reflect consumer confidence and seasonal demand in the retail and hospitality sectors.

Frequency

This event occurs annually, coinciding with the lunar calendar's full moon in September or October, and typically results in preliminary figures that can be revised as more data becomes available.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Mid-Autumn Holiday as it serves as an indicator of consumer sentiment and spending behavior, which can significantly influence sectors like retail, tourism, and hospitality. Strong sales during this period may indicate robust economic conditions, positively affecting the Chinese yuan (CNY), while disappointing figures might lead to concerns about economic growth, impacting related equities and commodities.

What Is It Derived From?

The economic impact of the Mid-Autumn Holiday is derived from various sources, including consumer spending surveys, retail sales data, and travel statistics reported by local governments and industry associations. These data points encompass inputs from retail businesses, hospitality services, and transportation sector analysts, as well as consumer sentiment indices.

Description

As a cultural event, the Mid-Autumn Holiday leads to a spike in consumer spending as families gather for reunions and observe traditions like mooncake sharing. The emphasis on family and cultural celebrations drives retail sales, boosting local economies, especially in urban areas where gift and travel expenditures surge, making year-over-year (YoY) comparisons especially relevant for assessing long-term trends.

Additional Notes

The Mid-Autumn Holiday stands as a coincident economic measure, reflecting real-time consumer behavior and economic performance during its occurrence. Observations from this event can also be compared to other holidays, such as Chinese New Year, to assess shifts in consumer confidence and broader economic trends.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise