United States Memorial Day

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

Memorial Day in the United States is primarily a commemoration event that signifies the honoring of military personnel who died in service to their country. Although it does not measure economic activity directly, Memorial Day can stimulate consumer spending and tourism, particularly in sectors such as retail, travel, and hospitality, making it an indirect indicator of economic sentiment and seasonal consumption patterns.

Frequency

Memorial Day is observed annually on the last Monday of May, and it serves as an annual marker rather than a report that is released with preliminary or final figures.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay attention to Memorial Day because it often marks the beginning of the summer season, influencing consumer behavior and spending, which can impact economic indicators like retail sales and GDP. The holiday is a key time for travel and leisure spending, and stronger consumer activity can positively affect equities and related sectors.

What Is It Derived From?

The economic effects associated with Memorial Day are derived from historical spending patterns and surveys conducted by various agencies regarding consumer behavior during holiday weekends. Retail sales data, tourism stats, and travel metrics are collected and analyzed by organizations such as the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the U.S. Travel Association.

Description

As a holiday, Memorial Day influences spending but does not follow a traditional economic reporting methodology like MoM, QoQ, or YoY. The data surrounding Memorial Day is reflective of consumer sentiment and spending trends rather than a singular economic measure, thus providing a general view of seasonal economic activity.

Additional Notes

Memorial Day is often viewed as a coincident economic indicator, aligning with other seasonal indicators that reflect consumer spending patterns, such as the Fourth of July and Labor Day. As a culturally significant holiday, it also serves to correlate with broader economic trends, particularly in the retail and hospitality sectors, by reflecting consumer willingness to spend on leisure activities.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

The increase in spending around Memorial Day is typically viewed as bullish for the broader market; increased consumer activity is generally positive for the USD and equities. In this context: higher than expected spending is bullish for the USD, bullish for stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise