United States Jobless Claims 4-Week Average

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-6.25K

USD

Actual:

836.75K

Forecast: 843K

Previous/Revision:

819K

Period: Dec/26

What Does It Measure?

The United States Jobless Claims 4-Week Average measures the average number of new claims for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks, providing a trend analysis of jobless claims in the U.S. This indicator primarily assesses the health of the labor market, focusing on employment stability as reflected in weekly unemployment filings.

Frequency

This report is released weekly, typically every Thursday, and the figure represents a four-week moving average that helps smooth out weekly volatility and seasonality in claims.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this indicator as it provides insight into the economy's labor market dynamics, influencing forecasts for consumer spending and overall economic growth. An increase in jobless claims can negatively affect currencies and equities, while a decline typically signals economic strength, positively impacting financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average is derived from data collected from state unemployment agencies, which report the number of new claims filed each week. The average is calculated using a straight average of the claims reported over the last four weeks, which helps to mitigate fluctuations caused by seasonal variations or temporary factors.

Description

The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average provides a smoothed view of unemployment trends, offering analysts a more stable indicator of labor market conditions compared to the more volatile weekly jobless claims figure. It serves as a lagging indicator, reflecting past trends in employment and unemployment, and is crucial for understanding underlying shifts in the job market.

Additional Notes

The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average is often compared to the non-farm payroll data, and together they provide a broader view of employment trends. This average is considered a key coincident indicator, as it closely correlates with overall economic performance and can signal impending changes in the economic cycle.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Lower than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 31, 2020	836.75K	843K	819K	-6.25K
Dec 23, 2020	818.25K	842K	814.25K	-23.75K
Dec 17, 2020	812.5K	770.56K	778.25K	41.94K
Dec 10, 2020	776K	739.25K	740.5K	36.75K
Dec 03, 2020	739.5K	752.75K	750.75K	-13.25K
Nov 25, 2020	748.5K	735K	743.5K	13.5K
Nov 19, 2020	742K	727K	755.75K	15K
Nov 12, 2020	755.25K	762K	788.5K	-6.75K
Nov 05, 2020	787K	782K	791K	5K
Oct 29, 2020	787.75K	786.5K	812.25K	1.25K
Oct 22, 2020	811.25K	877K	832.75K	-65.75K
Oct 15, 2020	866.25K	852K	858.25K	14.25K
Oct 08, 2020	857K	854K	870.25K	3K
Oct 01, 2020	867.25K	871K	879K	-3.75K
Sep 24, 2020	878.25K	869K	913.5K	9.25K
Sep 17, 2020	912K	960K	973K	-48K
Sep 10, 2020	970.75K	951.5K	992.5K	19.25K
Sep 03, 2020	991.75K	1019K	1069.25K	-27.25K
Aug 27, 2020	1068K	1068K	1175.25K
Aug 20, 2020	1175.75K	1120K	1254.75K	55.75K
Aug 13, 2020	1252.75K	1298K	1339K	-45.25K
Aug 06, 2020	1337.75K	1403K	1368.75K	-65.25K
Jul 30, 2020	1368.5K	1348K	1362K	20.5K
Jul 23, 2020	1360.25K	1328K	1376.75K	32.25K
Jul 16, 2020	1375K	1375K	1435K
Jul 09, 2020	1437.25K	1457K	1500.25K	-19.75K
Jul 02, 2020	1503.75K	1482K	1621.25K	21.75K
Jun 25, 2020	1620.75K		1781.5K
Jun 18, 2020	1773.5K	1678K	2008K	95.5K
Jun 11, 2020	2002K	1987K	2288.25K	15K
Jun 04, 2020	2284K	2259K	2608.75K	25K
May 28, 2020	2608K	2605K	3044K	3K
May 21, 2020	3042K	3073K	3543K	-31K
May 14, 2020	3616.5K	3477K	4180.5K	139.5K
May 07, 2020	4173.5K	4182K	5035K	-8.5K
Apr 30, 2020	5033.25K	4990K	5790.25K	43.25K
Apr 23, 2020	5786.5K	5818K	5506.5K	-31.5K
Apr 16, 2020	5508.5K	5375K	4267.75K	133.5K
Apr 09, 2020	4265.5K	3847K	2666.75K	418.5K
Apr 02, 2020	2612K	1864K	1004.25K	748K